Choices Group 1. Political Cartoon 2009 Cartoon about Iranian Nuclear Program and the UN.
The Problem of the Iranian Nuclear Program:
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WORKING TOGETHER AS AN INTERDISCIPLINARY TEAM TIMOTHY WALTON, PH.D.; FRANCES FLANNERY, PH.D. The Problem of the Iranian Nuclear Program:
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The Problem of the Iranian Nuclear Program:. Working Together As An Interdisciplinary Team Timothy Walton, Ph.D.; Frances Flannery, Ph.D. Our Research Team from Intelligence Analysis at James Madison University. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of The Problem of the Iranian Nuclear Program:
WORKING TOGETHER AS AN INTERDISCIPLINARY TEAM
TIMOTHY WALTON, PH.D.; FRANCES FLANNERY, PH.D.
The Problem of the Iranian Nuclear Program:
Our Research Team from Intelligence Analysis at James Madison University
The Dynamics of Violent Apocalypticism and Nuclear Proliferation: Simulation of a Dynamic Hypothesis, with Implications for U.S./Iranian Relations. By Michael L. Deaton, Frances L. Flannery, and Timothy R. Walton. In progress for System Dynamics Review.
Mike Deaton:
The Problem:
Iran is enriching uranium up to 20%, which can be further developed into nuclear weaponry.
Iran is obfuscating the efforts of the IAEA.In the past, Iran has sponsored terrorism.Iran has spoken aggressively towards Israel
and the United States.Discerning Iran’s intentions is key. Is the
uranium intended for a weapon? If Iran had a weapon, would they use it?
Formal Structures of the Iranian Government
President
Parliament
Assembly of Experts
Supreme Leader
Expediency Council
Guardian Council
IRGC
Cabinet
Bureaucracy
Armed Forces
Elected Appointed
Institutions in green are the main channels of clerical control
Informal Structure of Factions
Conservatives
Pragmatists
War Generation
Reformers
Conservatives
Leader: Ali Khamenei
Supreme Leader, 1989 – present
Constituencies: clergy, judiciary, monitoring organizations
Program: maintain theocratic regime, national self sufficiency
PragmatistsLeader: Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani
President, 1989 – 1997 Chairman Assembly of Experts, 2007 – 2011 Chairman, Expediency Council, 1988 – present
Constituencies: middle class, technocrats
Program: economic development managed by government
War Generation
Leader: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
Mayor of Tehran, 2003-2005
President, 2005-2013
Constituencies: IRGC, rural poor
Program: populist, nationalist, authoritarian
Reformers
Leader: Hossein Mousavi
Prime Minister , 1981-1989
Candidate for President in controversial election in 2009
Constituencies: professionals, intellectuals, ethnic minorities
Program: democracy, rule of law
Conventional Wisdom:
Iran is a rational player.Iran will act according to the same logic as the
United States, Canada, and other allies.Iran will act in terms of its own national
interests and the interests of its people.Iran would therefore not use a nuclear weapon
against Israel, Europe, or the United States. To do so would ensure it would be attacked and perhaps destroyed.
Therefore, if Iran is developing a nuclear weapon, it is for political leverage only.
Systems Dynamic Modeling
SD shows an overarching model of the shifting interactions amongst factors of a system.
SD encourages a complex, multi-faceted perspective.
SD fosters an understanding of the various elements that can drive a system in different directions, depending on the pressures and counter-pressures applied.
An example of an early working model follows.
Conventional Wisdom:International efforts to
deter Iran’s efforts
RADAP in a Shi’ite Islamist key
Photo From Facebook, The Coming of Imam Mahdi, a screen shot of The Coming is Near.
The “logic” is governed by revelation.
This world is not as important as other worlds: a) heaven and b) the imminent reign of the Mahdi (heaven on earth.)
The Mahdi is the pure human being who will rule over the whole world.
He is coming very soon (2013?).
Radical Apocalyptic Logic
RADAP Logic in Iran
President Ahmadinejad and the Supreme Leader Khamenei are in touch with the Mahdi.
He is guiding their actions and the fate of the cosmos is at stake.
The prophecies: the Mahdi will revenge the Shi’a against the Sunnis, and conquer the great enemies of the Shi’a.
The greatest enemies of Iran are The Great Satan (the United States) and the Little Satan (Israel).
The Mahdi’s kingdom is a vast one, with Iran at its epicenter.
The Mahdi’s kingdom will prevail. Period.
More from Frances
A Recipe for Interdisciplinary Research
scholarly expertise, with humility
flexibility of minddeep listeningall invested in the
importance of the project
language and communication
the value of simplicitythe value of the details
Suggestions for the Intelligence Community
Red Team Perspective on Apocalypticism
See the world as others see it (rational, in their scheme of things)
Draw on expertise Understand multidimensional aspects Expand range of plausible scenarios
Suggestions (Two)
Collaboration within Agencies and Interagency Collaboration bring subject area expertise to bear, with humility flexibility of mind deep listening all invested in the importance of the project language and communication the value of simplicity the value of the details
Questions or Comments?
Timothy Walton, Ph.D. [email protected]
Frances Flannery, Ph.D. [email protected]
