THE FUTURE OF MARKETING

Charlie HammersloughLunch Ann Arbor Marketing (LA2M)

April 22, 2009

Let’s start with a famous philosopher

Socrates?

Yogi Berra“The Future Ain’t What It Used To Be”

HERE’S THE BAD NEWS:

(The Future Doesn’t Exist)

Did You Think This Would Be Easy?

Sometimes, it is important to just ask the right questions.

Or, frankly, to ask any questions at all.

The Paradox of the “Future”

We all experience the present.

We choose to vicariously experience the future.

What were we saying about the future in 1999, and what lesson does that offer for our thinking about 2019?

What We Were Talking About:1999•The Cluetrain Manifesto

• “Employees are Passionate, Involved, Networked Consumers, Too”

•Permission Marketing• “Interruption BAD, Permission GOOD!”

•One-to-One Marketing• “High-Tech, High-Touch”• Mass micro-personalization

•Disintermediation• Dispensing with the middle-men.• “Will consumers even need marketing?”

•“Email is Just Like Direct Mail, but Cheaper!”

The Future, ca. 1999•Eyeballs more Important than a Business Model (Pets.com!)•The end of mass advertising, rise of niche marketing•Multi-Channel Integration

• “Clicks and Mortar” • Consumer channel preference• Measurement challenges

•The Internet will Become Pervasive and “Normal”• Broadband will be standard• “The Information Superhighway” … product

information faster!

From Whom Do We Learn About the Future? Our Gut Extrapolation of Current Trends “Nothing Much Really Changes” Science/Speculative Fiction Writers “Futurists”

A: All of the above.

Amara’s Law: "We tend to overestimate the effect of a

technology in the short run and to underestimate the effect in the long run."

- Roy Amara, futurist (1925-2007) An Example:

Q: What Percent of Americans Use Twitter as of March, 2009?

5%(But it’s growing like a weed; thanks Oprah!)

Oh, and HELLOOO, Maureen Dowd!

WHAT PROPORTION OF MARKETERS USE

TWITTER?

86%(March, 2009, again)

Be careful not to generalize from your own cutting-edge experience, friends.

Hammerslough’s Quibble: Amara’s Law works in reverse, too: “We tend to underestimate the effect and

persistence of old technologies when thinking about the future”Charlie Hammerslough, amateur (1958-)

Examples:Yellow Pages advertising expenditure is growing

and becoming more effective (+4% YOY)Online Advertising accounts for only 12% of

worldwide expenditures (2008)

THE VIEW FROM 2009

•Current Trends•Stuff that Won’t Change•Emerging Ideas

Current Trends, 2009(a selection) “You are What You Publish”

Websites, blogs, twitter, videos, vlogs, news releases, etc

Content and Utility ARE Marketing Visual Everything – Rise of Semiotics

Icons everywhere Technology-Enabled Social Networks

and Word of Mouth

VISUALIZING SOCIAL NETWORKS:INFLUENCE RIPPLES

VIRAL EVERYTHING

Cadbury’s 1-minute ad11 million views, $0 spend on broadcast

CONSUMER ENGAGEMENT

AND"OWNERSHIP" OF

BRANDS

WEB 2.0(YES, IT'S A CLICHÉ)

Web 1.0 was Commerce,Web 2.0 is People

-Ross Mayfield

Web 2.0

WEB 2.0:INPOWR.COM

One of my faves, and the graphics are cute.

Stuff That Won’t Change(probably) Branding

How a product is represented inside people’s minds

Appeals to EmotionFormerly Fear, Sex, and Greed (sometimes

humor)Now Supplemented by Sociability, Commitment,

Vanity, Surprise? Authenticity of Voice

Ever-shifting … content and utility are now ascendant

CONTENT IS THE NEW PRESIDENT, BITCH.

Tracy Morgan, SNL

Emergent Ideas

SUPER-EMPOWEREDINDIVIDUALS OR SMALL

GROUPS

Scale becomes irrelevant.

CONVERGENCE OF:

MARKETINGSALES

PRPRODUCT DESIGN

THE RISE OF EXPERIENTIAL MARKETING

VIRTUALIZATION OF EXPERIENCE

In 2009, more people are on Second Life than are Farmers.

DIGITAL ETHNOGRAPHY & ANTHROPOLOGY

del.icio.us

YOUR TURN

Thanks.

Charles.Hammerslough@demometrics.comwww.linkedin.com/in/chammerslough

Acknowledgements andSources David Meerman Scott. 2007. The New Rules of

Marketing and PR. Book. Paul Isakson. 2007. What’s Next in Marketing

and Advertising. PPT. http://tinyurl.com/37sbht John Willshire. 2009. The Future of Advertising

in One Afternoon. PPT. http://tinyurl.com/bmd8bb

Stats on usage of Social Media by Americans and by Marketers: (blogs)http://tinyurl.com/ccwqrghttp://tinyurl.com/ckh8nl

Acknowledgements andSources (cont.) Mike Lewis. 2008. Social Media

Marketing: Online Marketing Summit. PPT. http://tinyurl.com/6h3pzg

David Armano (visualizations)Blog: http://darmano.typepad.comWebsite: www.davidarmano.com

Cadbury Viral Advertwww.youtube.com/watch?v=TVblWq3tDwY