1

BY EMIL SALIM, INDONESIA25Y.APEX, 6/10/2012; KUNTORO-MEETING 24/10/2012.

TOWARDS A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE 2015-2035

2

THE CHALLENGES 2015-2035

3

EXPECTED GROWTH1. Population 7 billion 2012 to 9 billion 2050;2. Gross World Prod. $7tr. 2012 to $200 tr 2050 3. Energy-related CO2 emissions from 13 Giga-tons

1970 to 50 Gt in 2050; large regions will surpass 2*C in average annual temperature by 2040 combined with changing wheater pattern;

4. In 1970-2008 Global-Living-Planet Index -30% Global-Tropical-Index -60%, Human Ecological Footprints >50% of Bio-capacity;Tropical Fresh Water Index -70%

5. Indonesia Jawa-Riau-Bali-North Celebes footrpints exceed Regional Bio-Capacity 2010;

4

GLOBAL THREATS OF POVERTYIn a World of 7 billion people (2012):1. 1 out of 5 persons lives on <$1.25 a day;2. close to 1 billion go hungry every day;3. 1.5 billion have no access to electricity;4. 2.5 billion have no toilets & sanitation facilities;5. “Intensity of Poverty” as joint distribution of

their deprivation (nutrition, toilet, water, elec-tricity) is highest in poorest countries;

6. 1.189 million poor are in Middle-Income coun-tries, 459 million in Low-Income countries;

7. Gini-Coefficient, indicator of inequality is rising between and within countries;

5

“ECONOMIC BUSINESS-AS-USUAL”

1. Corporations generate 60% of annual GWP;2. Corporate externalities of top 3000

corporations cost $2.5 tril.=3.5% Global Gross Product

3. Global business practices have made human ecological footprints > 50% of global bio-capacity;

4. Corporate lobbying spending (US) has risen from $1.5 bil.(1998) to 3.5 billion (2010);

5. Financial market > real sector market in growth;

6. Increasing Total Debt as % of countries’ GDP by Financial Institutions, Government, Non-Financial Business and Households are increasing

6

CRITICAL ISSUES OF DEVELOPMENT

7

CONVENTIONAL DEVELOPMENT

1. Anthropocentric, disregarding biosphere;2. Pursuit of indefinite growth with preference

for “more” for human satisfaction;3. Economic activities are thought of series of

activities guided by invisible hands of market;

4. Production = physyically activity affected by natural resource, energy and food. Trade, ex-changes = financial activity of Gov. and Priv.

5. Growth is affected by “future expectations” revealed through rate of interests influenced by government & business interventons

8

FOCUS OF STRATEGIC ISSUESShift time-frame of expected growth from short term to long term (2015-2035) by interlinking economic-social-environment to reach for cluster of: Quality economic growth with Rising Human Development Index and Social Equity; Sustained use of natural resources below the

biological capacity of ecosystem and resource replenishment;

In a economic-sosial-environmental matrix of achievements, with each sector acting as a consraint to the other in the process of sustainable development

9

THE PARADIGMOF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENTMoving away from “single economic only track of development” into “triple economic-social-envi-ronment (ESE) track of sustainable development:1. Raising income with value-added of resources through

science and technology;2. Social development by improving “accessibility

bottlenecks” (economic connectivcity, financial services, education, health, technology, natural resources, politics) and empowering civil society;

3. Maintaining environmental sustainability by keeping ecological footprints below the bio- and life support system capacity;

10

URBAN SUSTAINABILITY INDEX

11

LOWER ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINTS WITH HIGHER HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX

12

COMMON BUT DIFFERENTIATEDRESPONSIB ILITIES AMONG

NATIONSCOUNTRY: HUM.DEV.INDEX: BIOCAPACITY:USA very high overshoot highAustralia very high overshoot highJapan very high overshoot highChina low overshoot lowIndia low below Indonesia low belowAfghanistan very low much below

13

SHIFTING TOWARDS RENEWABLE ENERGY

14

GREEN JOB ENERGY DEVELOPMENT

15

16

TOWARDS INCLUSIVE MARKET APPROACH

17

INDONESIAN BUSINESS INVOLVEMENT IN MDG

18

REQUIREMENTS FORSUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

1. Triangle partnership: business-govt.-civil society;2. Stages of Political Democracy development with

stages of Sustainable Development;3. Change indicator of development “from GDP to

Equitable Global Human Wellbeing”;4. Promote Global Sustainable Development

Partnership in raising among others value added of renewable sources (Squalene, farmacy) and “green non-renewable resources development” (green coal, energy, etc) through human capacity building in bio-technology;

19

SOURCES OF REFERENCES

1. WWF, “Living Planet Report 2012”;2. Pavan Sukhdev, “Green Economy” in “Green

Economic Conference”, Jakarta, Sept. 2012;3. UNDP, “One Planet to Share”, Asia-Pacific

Human Development Report, May 2012;4. McKinsey & Company, “McKinsey on

Sustainability & Resource Productivity”, 2012;5. UNEP, “Towards a Green Economy” 2011;6. Global Compact Network Indonesia, “Growing

Inclusive Markets: Indonesia Cases” vol.1/2010;7. Richard Heinberg, “The End of Growth”, New

Society Publishers,Canada, 2011.