The World in 2050: Transformative Pathways Towards ...Sustainable Future Transformation Legitimacy...
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The Answer Is 17 – Implementing the Systemic Dimension of the SDGs, AAAS, 2019 Washington D.C. – 16 February 2019 Nebojsa Nakicenovic Deputy Director General International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Professor Emeritus of Energy Economics Vienna University of Technology The World in 2050: Transformative Pathways Towards Sustainability SDGs: Prosperity Social Inclusion Sustainability
Transcript of The World in 2050: Transformative Pathways Towards ...Sustainable Future Transformation Legitimacy...
The Answer Is 17 – Implementing the Systemic Dimension of the SDGs, AAAS, 2019Washington D.C. – 16 February 2019
Nebojsa NakicenovicDeputy Director GeneralInternational Institute for Applied Systems AnalysisProfessor Emeritus of Energy EconomicsVienna University of Technology
The World in 2050: Transformative Pathways Towards Sustainability
SDGs:Prosperity
Social InclusionSustainability
2019 #2Nakicenovic
Four Great Achievements since the Beginning of Industrial Revolution
Life expectancy has doubled in a century
One billion are obese while less go hungry
More die by suicide than war and violence
Everyone in the world has a mobile phone
2019 #3Nakicenovic
Source: Modi, 2011
Mobile Phones Charging
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Collective Responsibility in the Anthropocene
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Greenhouse gas emissions pathways
● To limit warming to 1.5°C, CO2emissions fall by about 45% by 2030 (from 2010 levels)
● To limit warming to 1.5°C, CO2 emissions would need to reach ‘net zero’ around 2050
● Reducing non‐CO2 emissions would have direct and immediate health benefits
SDGs:Prosperity
Social InclusionSustainability
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www.GlobalEnergyAssessment.org
Cambridge University Press
Mexican contribution: ● Omar Masera,
Director Bioenergy Laboratory, Center for Ecosystem Research, National Autonomous University of Mexico
● Francisco Aguayo, Science, Technology, and Development Program, El Colegio de México
2019 #9Nakicenovic UN General Assembly resolution 65/151
2030 Energy Goal (SDG7)● Universal Access to Modern Energy
● Double Energy Efficiency Improvement
● Double Renewable Share in Final Energy
Aspirational & Ambitious but Achievable
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0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
Only Energy Security Only Air Pollution and Health Only Climate Change All Three Objectives
Total G
loba
l Policy C
osts (2
010‐20
30)
Source: McCollum et. al, 2012; IPCC, 2014
Multiple Benefits of Integrated Policies
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Interactions between SDG 7 & other SDGs
Source: McCollum et. al, 2018
2018 #13Nakicenovic
TWI2050 Writing Meeting 5-7 March 2018, IIASA
Key MessagesSynthesis1. Framing and Introduction 2. The Challenges Ahead3. Sustainable Development
Pathways4. Governing the Transformation
>60 authors from ~20 organizations
>150 contributors and participants
TWI2050 Report (www.TWI2050.org)
2018 #14Nakicenovic
TWI2050 Writing Meeting 5-7 March 2018, IIASA
Key MessagesSynthesis1. Framing and Introduction 2. The Challenges Ahead3. Sustainable Development
Pathways4. Governing the Transformation
>60 authors from ~20 organizations
>150 contributors and participants
TWI2050 Report (www.TWI2050.org)
TWI2050 Launch HLPF11 July 2018, UN
2018 #15Nakicenovic
Some Key Messages Attaining the SDGs in a resilient and lasting way,
requires vigorous action now, and a people and planet focus beyond 2030!
As everything is integrated in the connected world, the grand transformation requires a holistic perspective!
Transformational change is needed but to succeed we must take along winners and losers!
The world is at crossroads as we are currently experiencing signs of a counter-transformation!
A central element of the sustainability transformation is effective and inclusive governance!
Think globally, act locally! Think long-term, act now!
2018 #16Nakicenovic
Vision: Sustainable Future
Tran
sfor
mat
ion
Legitimacy of BAU eroding
Source: After WBGU, 2011
The World in 2050 (www.TWI2050.org)
2030 2050
Targets 2050+ →
← 2030 Agenda
One “backcasting” narrative and many transformational pathways
2018 #17Nakicenovic
Human capacity & demography
Education, health, ageing,labor markets, gender,
inequalities
SDGs:Prosperity
Social InclusionSustainability
Decarbonization & energy
Energy access, efficiency,
electrification, decent services
Consumption& production
Resource use, circular economy,
sufficiency, pollution
Smart citiesDecent housing,
mobility, sustainable
infrastructure, pollution
Food, biosphere & water
Sustainable intensification, biodiversity, forests,
oceans, healthy diets, nutrients
Digital revolution
Artificial intelligence, big data, biotech,
nanotech, autonomous systems
Six Major Transformations (TWI2050.org)
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Impact of IC Technology Convergence
Source: Grubler et al., 2018
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Technology Diffusion Compareddigital revolution
Source: Nokia Bell Labs, 2017
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