Post on 08-May-2015
description
Systems Thinking: A Foxy ApproachVenkatesh Rao, ribbonfarm.com
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HideboundBureaucraticHolier-than-thouNaïveBoringRisk-aversePredictable
InconsistentUnreliableDuplicitousSelfishIrresponsibleSchemingBullshitter
Two negative archetypes
Which do you dislike more?
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Foxes
Sees Foxes as
Hedgehogs
Sees Hedgehogs as
Open-mindedResourcefulAdaptableWorldlyInterestingAdventurousImaginative
HideboundBureaucraticHolier-than-thouNaïveBoringRisk-aversePredictable
InconsistentUnreliableDuplicitousSelfishIrresponsibleSchemingBullshitter
ConsistentConscientiousFairSelflessResponsibleTrustworthyRealistic
Story: The crazy personal trainer
“To be great at many things, not just one. My clients will be well rounded and competent in all areas of fitness.
They will be able to take on any physical challenges and succeed. I help
people change their lifestyles for a healthier tomorrow.”
Arthur Hsu
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“The fox knows many things, the hedgehog knows one big thing.”
-- Archilocus
The philosophy primer: http://bit.ly/Ysr7ja
Definition:
Systems thinking is the consistent ability to get unstuck when stuck…
VUCAVolatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, Ambiguity
…in the presence of VUCA
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Attributions:Fox: Rob LeeHedgehog: Lars Karlsson
Finding the right question Finding the right answer
Two complementary modes of getting unstuck
Directional systems thinking Operational systems thinking
Anticipation
Advantage FOX
Execution
Advantage HEDGEHOG
Foxes appear to have internalized cross-functional
teams inside their heads
When hedgehogs do.. When foxes do…
…hedgehog work
…fox work
The right answers
The rightquestions
“Big picture” porn
Clumsyhacks
Hedgehog Systems Thinking Done Right
GTD
Hedgehog Systems Thinking Done Wrong
Foxy Systems Thinking Done Wrong
Employers didn't start offering health benefits roughly 60 years ago because they were experts in medical decisions. It was a way of circumventing the World War II wage and price controls. Barred from offering higher salaries to attract workers, employers offered health insurance instead. Aided by an IRS ruling that said workers who received health benefits did not have to pay income taxes on them, and by the fact that employers could write off the cost of the health benefits as a business related expense, this accidental arrangement became the primary way most Americans access health care.
-- WSJ, December 10, 2008http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122887085038593345.html
Foxy Systems Thinking Done Right
OODA: A fox dressed like a hedgehog (a story for another day…)
Can you have your cake and eat it too? Maybe…
When hedgehogs do… When foxes do…
…hedgehog work
…fox workExample:Globalization
Where foxes get terminally stuck,
hedgehogs get started
Where hedgehogs get terminally stuck, foxes get started
Foxes are most comfortable finding direction
Hedgehogs are most comfortable developing momentum
DEVOPS = FOXHOG?
The fatal hedgehog error: understanding how a system works is necessary for understanding how to work the system
The fatal fox error: an elegant insight into the workings of a system is sufficient for building an elegant system that works
Dangerous books often bought and displayed proudly
…but (thankfully) rarely read
2x2 diagramsArbitrageAphorismsArchetypingBloody-mindednessBricolageBrowsingCaricatureCollageConstraint TrianglesFree-lunchingGonzo longformHacksImprovisationMapsMetaphor
MotifsNamingNarrativeNon SequitursOverloadingParablesParadoxesPattern recognitionRandomnessSerendipityTheftTriageSurprise seekingViral Venn DiagramsYin-Yang diagrams
Equipment in the Foxy Gym
Motif
A tangible symbol that evokes the gestalt of a complex system and suggests a useful organizing perspective.
Test: if you make a mind-map with the motif at the root, you will end up with a different diagram than if you start with the abstract idea.
Globalization
Jobs
Outsourcing
Currency Trading
World is Flat
InternetWTO
China
BackhaulProblem
TradeImbalance
RFID
WalmartDirty
Nukes
China
SupplyChains
Global Warming
WeirdWeather More
droughts, more rain
Melting Ice Caps
Is it real? Carbon
Emissions
Conspiracy Theory
FraudControversy
Extinction Will our children see polar
bears?
We share this planet
MeltingIce caps
What about non-cute species?
OtherImplications?
GlobalWarming
Exercise #1A (3 minutes): draw a mind-map starting with…
Application Lifecycle
Management
Exercise #1B (3 minutes): now draw one starting with…
Y2K bug
Why this can get you unstuck:
Good motifs naturally allow our minds to pick out the important patterns rather than the conventional ones.
Drawing a mind-map starting with a new motif is like reseeding a random number generator in your mind.
Aphorism
An aphorism is a succinct statement that captures an essential insight into the workings of a complex system, without characterizing it in detail.
Test: Retweetability
Gamification is the high-fructose corn syrup of user engagement -- Kathy Sierra
Plan to throw one away – BrooksNever throw one away – Spolsky
Two from yours truly
Keep your psychology complex, but your morality simpleCivilization is the process of turning the incomprehensible into the arbitrary
Exercise #2 (3 minutes): Tweet your own aphorism about application lifecycle management in 120 characters to @almchicago
(hint: try to start with a few different motifs)
Prize!
Why this can get you unstuck:
Good aphorisms are extremely high-leverage decision simplification principles that allow you to eliminate entire classes of possibilities at the systemic level and supply good defaults at the detailed level.
Metaphoric Map
A metaphoric map is a visualization that uses the rich phenomena of geography to represent complex realities in ways that show things in the right relative proportions and relationships, suggest a set of coherent meanings and guide high-level prioritization.
Test: How often your map gets cited by others.
xkcd
Homework (3 hours): Draw a metaphoric map of your industry
Things to use:
• walls, mountains, gorges• rivers, lakes, oceans, deserts• forests, swamps• villages, cities, countries
PRIZE: Free hour of consulting if you agree to post your finished map in public
Why this can get you unstuck:
Good maps suggest the right sense of proportion and rearrange priorities.
• Are you ignoring something huge?• Are you wasting attention on something trivial?• Are you missing a relationship?• Are you underestimating the size of a barrier to action?
Advanced material: the 2x2 Diagram
A good 2x2 diagram discriminates a complex and messy reality into four more tractable and equally rich classes by employing two orthogonal but mutually relevant dichotomies.
Test: How easily you are able to name each quadrant with an archetype label or motif.
Stupid Smart
Poor
Rich
Loser Unlucky
WinnerLucky
A bad 2x2…why?
Intelligence
Wea
lth
Low High
Low
High
Victim Micromanager
Master and CommanderCrazymaker
A good 2x2
(David Allen)
Control
Pers
pecti
ve
More Regionalized
More Globalized
Networked and Distributed
Centralized and Hierarchical
Frontier Friction
FreelancePlanet
ProudTower
ContinentalDrift
Another Good 2x2(Microsoft: Rasmus/Salkowitz)
Globalization
Org
aniza
tion
Ops Dev
Fox
Hedgehog
Scotty Kirk
SpockMcCoy
One for Gene Kim
Completing triads into quadrants a
common technique
Fox Hedgehog
Fox
Hedgehog
Shakespeare Taleb
DanteTolstoi
And one more…(me!)
Strengths
Valu
es(based on famous Isaiah Berlin essay)
You can make up the grid and find the motifs (easier)
or
You can start with motifs and get to the 2x2 (harder)
Example: Slytherin, Hufflepuff, Gryffindor, Ravenclaw
Follower Leader
Selfish
Noble
Ravenclaw Slytherin
GryffindorHufflepuff
One possible solution
Why wouldn’t the following work?
1. Good versus evil2. Works smart/works hard3. Loyal/disloyal
Another one
The four elements of Blitzkrieg*
1. Einheit (“culture”)2. Fingerspitzengefühl (“instinctive skill”)3. Auftragstaktik (“tactical contract”)4. Schwerpunkt (“commander’s intent” or “focal point”)
*See Chet Richards’ Certain to Win for an accessible introduction
Tangible Intangible
Scalar
Vector
InstinctiveSkill Culture
TacticalContract
Commander’sIntent
One possible solution
(from a very smart consulting client)
7 rules for 2x2s
1. No unlabeled quadrants…2. …but labeled-and-empty is okay3. Name the prototypical instance, not the class4. Bonus points if x and y axes are strongly related or identical5. Drop either the axes labels or the end points labels if you can…6. …but not both!7. The middle must be unoccupied (related to Taleb’s “barbell principle”)
Final exam, Part I: (5 minutes)
Draw a 2x2 relating to application lifecycle management.
(extra credit: take a picture and tweet it to @almchicago)
Prize!
Final exam, Part II: (5 minutes)
Organize the following into a 2x2 matrix.
Hacker, Hustler, UX designer, sysadmin
Extra foxy credit: try and come up with two alternative 2x2s
2 Prizes!
Fox tools
1. Blank, one-sided print outs (“free lunch”)
2. Index cards3. Pens4. Simple, versatile software5. Intuitive or easy to learn
Hedgehog tools
1. Bound, ruled/graph notebooks2. Post-it notes3. Pencils4. Complex, specialized software5. Takes serious training
• Question like a fox, answer like a hedgehog• See like a fox, do like a hedgehog• Imagine like a fox, execute like a hedgehog• Create problems like a fox, solve them like a hedgehog• Startup like a fox, scale like a hedgehog
Thank you!
In development: workshop/short course (ETA: Summer 2013)
Blog: http://ribbonfarm.comEmail: vgr@ribbonfarm.comTwitter: @vgr