Systems Thinking: A Foxy ApproachVenkatesh Rao, ribbonfarm.com

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HideboundBureaucraticHolier-than-thouNaïveBoringRisk-aversePredictable

InconsistentUnreliableDuplicitousSelfishIrresponsibleSchemingBullshitter

Two negative archetypes

Which do you dislike more?

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Foxes

Sees Foxes as

Hedgehogs

Sees Hedgehogs as

Open-mindedResourcefulAdaptableWorldlyInterestingAdventurousImaginative

HideboundBureaucraticHolier-than-thouNaïveBoringRisk-aversePredictable

InconsistentUnreliableDuplicitousSelfishIrresponsibleSchemingBullshitter

ConsistentConscientiousFairSelflessResponsibleTrustworthyRealistic

Story: The crazy personal trainer

“To be great at many things, not just one. My clients will be well rounded and competent in all areas of fitness.

They will be able to take on any physical challenges and succeed. I help

people change their lifestyles for a healthier tomorrow.”

Arthur Hsu

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“The fox knows many things, the hedgehog knows one big thing.”

-- Archilocus

The philosophy primer: http://bit.ly/Ysr7ja

Definition:

Systems thinking is the consistent ability to get unstuck when stuck…

VUCAVolatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, Ambiguity

…in the presence of VUCA

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Attributions:Fox: Rob LeeHedgehog: Lars Karlsson

Finding the right question Finding the right answer

Two complementary modes of getting unstuck

Directional systems thinking Operational systems thinking

Anticipation

Advantage FOX

Execution

Advantage HEDGEHOG

Foxes appear to have internalized cross-functional

teams inside their heads

When hedgehogs do.. When foxes do…

…hedgehog work

…fox work

The right answers

The rightquestions

“Big picture” porn

Clumsyhacks

Hedgehog Systems Thinking Done Right

GTD

Hedgehog Systems Thinking Done Wrong

Foxy Systems Thinking Done Wrong

Employers didn't start offering health benefits roughly 60 years ago because they were experts in medical decisions. It was a way of circumventing the World War II wage and price controls. Barred from offering higher salaries to attract workers, employers offered health insurance instead. Aided by an IRS ruling that said workers who received health benefits did not have to pay income taxes on them, and by the fact that employers could write off the cost of the health benefits as a business related expense, this accidental arrangement became the primary way most Americans access health care.

-- WSJ, December 10, 2008http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122887085038593345.html

Foxy Systems Thinking Done Right

OODA: A fox dressed like a hedgehog (a story for another day…)

Can you have your cake and eat it too? Maybe…

When hedgehogs do… When foxes do…

…hedgehog work

…fox workExample:Globalization

Where foxes get terminally stuck,

hedgehogs get started

Where hedgehogs get terminally stuck, foxes get started

Foxes are most comfortable finding direction

Hedgehogs are most comfortable developing momentum

DEVOPS = FOXHOG?

The fatal hedgehog error: understanding how a system works is necessary for understanding how to work the system

The fatal fox error: an elegant insight into the workings of a system is sufficient for building an elegant system that works

Dangerous books often bought and displayed proudly

…but (thankfully) rarely read

2x2 diagramsArbitrageAphorismsArchetypingBloody-mindednessBricolageBrowsingCaricatureCollageConstraint TrianglesFree-lunchingGonzo longformHacksImprovisationMapsMetaphor

MotifsNamingNarrativeNon SequitursOverloadingParablesParadoxesPattern recognitionRandomnessSerendipityTheftTriageSurprise seekingViral Venn DiagramsYin-Yang diagrams

Equipment in the Foxy Gym

Motif

A tangible symbol that evokes the gestalt of a complex system and suggests a useful organizing perspective.

Test: if you make a mind-map with the motif at the root, you will end up with a different diagram than if you start with the abstract idea.

Globalization

Jobs

Outsourcing

Currency Trading

World is Flat

InternetWTO

China

BackhaulProblem

TradeImbalance

RFID

WalmartDirty

Nukes

China

SupplyChains

Global Warming

WeirdWeather More

droughts, more rain

Melting Ice Caps

Is it real? Carbon

Emissions

Conspiracy Theory

FraudControversy

Extinction Will our children see polar

bears?

We share this planet

MeltingIce caps

What about non-cute species?

OtherImplications?

GlobalWarming

Exercise #1A (3 minutes): draw a mind-map starting with…

Application Lifecycle

Management

Exercise #1B (3 minutes): now draw one starting with…

Y2K bug

Why this can get you unstuck:

Good motifs naturally allow our minds to pick out the important patterns rather than the conventional ones.

Drawing a mind-map starting with a new motif is like reseeding a random number generator in your mind.

Aphorism

An aphorism is a succinct statement that captures an essential insight into the workings of a complex system, without characterizing it in detail.

Test: Retweetability

Gamification is the high-fructose corn syrup of user engagement -- Kathy Sierra

Plan to throw one away – BrooksNever throw one away – Spolsky

Two from yours truly

Keep your psychology complex, but your morality simpleCivilization is the process of turning the incomprehensible into the arbitrary

Exercise #2 (3 minutes): Tweet your own aphorism about application lifecycle management in 120 characters to @almchicago

(hint: try to start with a few different motifs)

Prize!

Why this can get you unstuck:

Good aphorisms are extremely high-leverage decision simplification principles that allow you to eliminate entire classes of possibilities at the systemic level and supply good defaults at the detailed level.

Metaphoric Map

A metaphoric map is a visualization that uses the rich phenomena of geography to represent complex realities in ways that show things in the right relative proportions and relationships, suggest a set of coherent meanings and guide high-level prioritization.

Test: How often your map gets cited by others.

xkcd

Homework (3 hours): Draw a metaphoric map of your industry

Things to use:

• walls, mountains, gorges• rivers, lakes, oceans, deserts• forests, swamps• villages, cities, countries

PRIZE: Free hour of consulting if you agree to post your finished map in public

Why this can get you unstuck:

Good maps suggest the right sense of proportion and rearrange priorities.

• Are you ignoring something huge?• Are you wasting attention on something trivial?• Are you missing a relationship?• Are you underestimating the size of a barrier to action?

Advanced material: the 2x2 Diagram

A good 2x2 diagram discriminates a complex and messy reality into four more tractable and equally rich classes by employing two orthogonal but mutually relevant dichotomies.

Test: How easily you are able to name each quadrant with an archetype label or motif.

Stupid Smart

Poor

Rich

Loser Unlucky

WinnerLucky

A bad 2x2…why?

Intelligence

Wea

lth

Low High

Low

High

Victim Micromanager

Master and CommanderCrazymaker

A good 2x2

(David Allen)

Control

Pers

pecti

ve

More Regionalized

More Globalized

Networked and Distributed

Centralized and Hierarchical

Frontier Friction

FreelancePlanet

ProudTower

ContinentalDrift

Another Good 2x2(Microsoft: Rasmus/Salkowitz)

Globalization

Org

aniza

tion

Ops Dev

Fox

Hedgehog

Scotty Kirk

SpockMcCoy

One for Gene Kim

Completing triads into quadrants a

common technique

Fox Hedgehog

Fox

Hedgehog

Shakespeare Taleb

DanteTolstoi

And one more…(me!)

Strengths

Valu

es(based on famous Isaiah Berlin essay)

You can make up the grid and find the motifs (easier)

or

You can start with motifs and get to the 2x2 (harder)

Example: Slytherin, Hufflepuff, Gryffindor, Ravenclaw

Follower Leader

Selfish

Noble

Ravenclaw Slytherin

GryffindorHufflepuff

One possible solution

Why wouldn’t the following work?

1. Good versus evil2. Works smart/works hard3. Loyal/disloyal

Another one

The four elements of Blitzkrieg*

1. Einheit (“culture”)2. Fingerspitzengefühl (“instinctive skill”)3. Auftragstaktik (“tactical contract”)4. Schwerpunkt (“commander’s intent” or “focal point”)

*See Chet Richards’ Certain to Win for an accessible introduction

Tangible Intangible

Scalar

Vector

InstinctiveSkill Culture

TacticalContract

Commander’sIntent

One possible solution

(from a very smart consulting client)

7 rules for 2x2s

1. No unlabeled quadrants…2. …but labeled-and-empty is okay3. Name the prototypical instance, not the class4. Bonus points if x and y axes are strongly related or identical5. Drop either the axes labels or the end points labels if you can…6. …but not both!7. The middle must be unoccupied (related to Taleb’s “barbell principle”)

Final exam, Part I: (5 minutes)

Draw a 2x2 relating to application lifecycle management.

(extra credit: take a picture and tweet it to @almchicago)

Prize!

Final exam, Part II: (5 minutes)

Organize the following into a 2x2 matrix.

Hacker, Hustler, UX designer, sysadmin

Extra foxy credit: try and come up with two alternative 2x2s

2 Prizes!

Fox tools

1. Blank, one-sided print outs (“free lunch”)

2. Index cards3. Pens4. Simple, versatile software5. Intuitive or easy to learn

Hedgehog tools

1. Bound, ruled/graph notebooks2. Post-it notes3. Pencils4. Complex, specialized software5. Takes serious training

• Question like a fox, answer like a hedgehog• See like a fox, do like a hedgehog• Imagine like a fox, execute like a hedgehog• Create problems like a fox, solve them like a hedgehog• Startup like a fox, scale like a hedgehog

Thank you!

In development: workshop/short course (ETA: Summer 2013)

Blog: http://ribbonfarm.comEmail: vgr@ribbonfarm.comTwitter: @vgr