Post on 10-Jan-2016
description
MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
1Ozcan Saritas Sept 24, 2009
Bucharest
Systemic Foresight Methodology
Dr. Ozcan SaritasOzcan.Saritas@manchester.ac.uk
MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
2Ozcan Saritas Sept 24, 2009
Bucharest
Presentation Outline Evolution of the Foresight practice
Changing nature of situations & increasing complexity
Challenges for Foresight
Need for Systemic Foresight approaches – with the introduction of the ideas of systems thinking
MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
3Ozcan Saritas Sept 24, 2009
Bucharest
early foresight - pre ’60s
The existence of human on the earth surface: The act of anticipation as an unavoidable human characteristic
16th to 18th centuries: To improve decision making and public debate and to anticipate long-term trends and long-term implications of short-term decisions. Wide scope & wide array of issues due to increasing complexity of societies
19th century: The future of capitalist economies by classical political economists. Following the industrial revolution: Fragmentation of social studies - more focused and short term orientation of social sciences
‘50s: The principles of trend extrapolation and social indicators, and the methods of expert analysis (e.g. Delphi & cross-impact) were established. First computer simulation studies were becoming well-known
MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
4Ozcan Saritas Sept 24, 2009
Bucharest
Institutional Foresight - ’60s to present
‘60s: Narrowly focused forecasting activities – the probabilistic assessment of what is likely to happen in the future
‘70s: Change in the understanding of forecasting due to increasing complexity and uncertainty of societies and economies (e.g. unpredicted oil shocks in the ‘70s)
‘80s: Multiple futures thinking, participatory activities, where both processes (i.e. networks, tacit outcomes) and products (i.e. codified outputs) were given emphasis
MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
5Ozcan Saritas Sept 24, 2009
Bucharest
Foresight - ’90s Foresight for S&T policy making by government, industry
and other organisations
The key elements of Foresight in the 1990s:– S&T is central focus– Systematic process – Longer timeframe than in existing S&T planning– S&T in relation to economic and social developments
“Foresight is the process involved in systematically attempting to look into the longer term future of science, technology, the economy, and society with the aim of identifying areas of strategic research and the emerging new technologies likely to yield the greatest economic and social benefits” (Martin, 1995).
MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
6Ozcan Saritas Sept 24, 2009
Bucharest
Foresight - 2000s Change in the S&T dominated appearance with increasing
concerns on social aspects due to:
• The increasing importance of innovation (both technological and organisational)
• The development of service economies. Considerable portions of economic activity, employment and output have started taking place in service sectors of the economy
• Other developments including globalisation, changes in demographic structures and in cultural practices, and environmental affairs
• Recognition of the close relationship between S&T and society
MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
7Ozcan Saritas Sept 24, 2009
Bucharest
– “the application of ‘systematic’, ‘participatory’, ‘future-intelligence-gathering and medium-to-long-term vision building process’ to ‘informing present-day decisions and mobilising joint actions’”
Five essential elements of Foresight
Miles and Keenan (2002)
MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
8Ozcan Saritas Sept 24, 2009
Bucharest
Foresight – 2010s? Policy contexts and challenges
The new global context Increased financial, trade and investment flows
Rapid and accelerating technological progress; ICTs, biotechnology, fuel cells, nanotechnologies
New international regulations and standards on trade, quality, labor, environment, intellectual property rights
New systems to design, produce, distribute, and manage products and services
Global value chains and production networks
MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
9Ozcan Saritas Sept 24, 2009
Bucharest
MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
10Ozcan Saritas Sept 24, 2009
Bucharest
Shift from government to governance Shift from ‘government’ to ‘governance’ and thus a new
‘regulatory’ state– Inclusiveness and equity through freedom of association and expression, and an
organised civil society with full protection of human rights
– Democratic society influencing, restraining or blocking policy design and implementation
– Contributions from society, firms, institutions, and associations to enhance public policy within a new normative and legal framework
– Effectiveness and efficiency in meeting society’s expectations and sustainable use of resources
The quest for new forms of governance is structured around three pillars
MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
11Ozcan Saritas Sept 24, 2009
Bucharest
Foresight
New Foresight landscape
MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
12Ozcan Saritas Sept 24, 2009
Bucharest
Foresight
MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
13Ozcan Saritas Sept 24, 2009
Bucharest
MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
14Ozcan Saritas Sept 24, 2009
Bucharest
Health and social services system Understanding of the interdependencies and dynamics of the health
and social services system
Interdependency of sub-systems in the welfare system
MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
15Ozcan Saritas Sept 24, 2009
Bucharest
MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
16Ozcan Saritas Sept 24, 2009
Bucharest
Implications for Foresight practice Nature of situations have become more complex and uncertain
Traditional method-driven “systematic” Foresight practice is not sufficient to deal with these situations
Introduction of thought experiments for understanding, appreciation and modelling
Need for “Systemic Foresight” approaches
MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
17Ozcan Saritas Sept 24, 2009
Bucharest
System
System– “A set of elements connected together which form a
whole, this showing the properties which are properties of the whole, rather than properties of its component parts” (Checkland, 1981, p.4).
Systems Thinking: Viewing ‘events’ as a system and/or part of larger systems
MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
18Ozcan Saritas Sept 24, 2009
Bucharest
• The effect of one or more system elements on the properties or on the behaviour of the other(s)
•Due to interrelatedness and interdependency between system elements, systems have some characteristics or behavioural patterns that cannot be exhibited by any of its subsets
Causality
• The whole is more than the sum of its parts
• The parts cannot be considered in isolation from the whole
• The behaviour of the system cannot be understood independent from its context
Holism
•The grouping or arrangement of systems according to their higher and lower influence and coverage levels (e.g. upper level systems and sub-systems or nested systems).
• Systems exist as parts of larger wholes, while they themselves provide organisation to their own sub-systems
Hierarchy
• Systems transform themselves continuously and therefore are dynamic
• This explains an iterative, dynamic and non-linear process
• Two types of continuity (i) Continuity of looped action sequence (ii) The recursion of the looped action sequence in time
Continuity
MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
19Ozcan Saritas Sept 24, 2009
Bucharest
Systemic understanding – Creates shared understanding and mutual
appreciation of issues at hand Systems synthesis and modelling
– The input from scanning is synthesised into conceptual models of the situations involved in the real world
Systemic analysis and Selection – Analyses the alternative models of the future
and ‘prioritises’ them, through intensive negotiations among system actors and stakeholders, to create an agreed model of the future
System transformation – Establishes the relationship between the
future and the present for a change programme
Systemic action – Creates plans to inform present day decisions
for immediate change to provide structural and behavioural transformations
Thought experiments
Systemic Foresight Methodology
MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
20Ozcan Saritas Sept 24, 2009
Bucharest
Understanding context, content & process of Foresight
Social system
Technological system
Economic system
Ecological system
Political system
Values
MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
21Ozcan Saritas Sept 24, 2009
Bucharest
Questions for SFM
Science &Ecology
Technology& Economics
SocioeconomicsPolitics & Values
What is possible?
What is desirable?
What is feasible?
Systemic Foresight
Systemic Foresight
MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
22Ozcan Saritas Sept 24, 2009
Bucharest
MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
23Ozcan Saritas Sept 24, 2009
Bucharest
Foresight practice has moved from being ‘systematic’ to ‘systemic’
Systemic Foresight Methodology (SFM) concerns ‘situations’, which is characterised by sets of events that may be that may be coincident or serial or both that create a situation not a problem
Provides greater awareness and understanding and appreciation of complex Social, Technological, Economic, Ecological, Political and Value (STEEPV) systems
SFM involves a ‘soft process of inquiry’ , which is characterised by subjective opinion
SFM meets expectations for inclusivity, transparency and involvement
Conclusions
MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
24Ozcan Saritas Sept 24, 2009
Bucharest
End of presentation..
Dr. Ozcan SaritasOzcan.Saritas@manchester.ac.uk