Systemic Foresight Methodology Dr. Ozcan Saritas [email protected]

MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight

1Ozcan Saritas Sept 24, 2009

Bucharest

Systemic Foresight Methodology

Dr. Ozcan [email protected]



Bucharest

Presentation Outline Evolution of the Foresight practice

Changing nature of situations & increasing complexity

Challenges for Foresight

Need for Systemic Foresight approaches – with the introduction of the ideas of systems thinking



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early foresight - pre ’60s

The existence of human on the earth surface: The act of anticipation as an unavoidable human characteristic

16th to 18th centuries: To improve decision making and public debate and to anticipate long-term trends and long-term implications of short-term decisions. Wide scope & wide array of issues due to increasing complexity of societies

19th century: The future of capitalist economies by classical political economists. Following the industrial revolution: Fragmentation of social studies - more focused and short term orientation of social sciences

‘50s: The principles of trend extrapolation and social indicators, and the methods of expert analysis (e.g. Delphi & cross-impact) were established. First computer simulation studies were becoming well-known



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Institutional Foresight - ’60s to present

‘60s: Narrowly focused forecasting activities – the probabilistic assessment of what is likely to happen in the future

‘70s: Change in the understanding of forecasting due to increasing complexity and uncertainty of societies and economies (e.g. unpredicted oil shocks in the ‘70s)

‘80s: Multiple futures thinking, participatory activities, where both processes (i.e. networks, tacit outcomes) and products (i.e. codified outputs) were given emphasis



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Foresight - ’90s Foresight for S&T policy making by government, industry

and other organisations

The key elements of Foresight in the 1990s:– S&T is central focus– Systematic process – Longer timeframe than in existing S&T planning– S&T in relation to economic and social developments

“Foresight is the process involved in systematically attempting to look into the longer term future of science, technology, the economy, and society with the aim of identifying areas of strategic research and the emerging new technologies likely to yield the greatest economic and social benefits” (Martin, 1995).



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Foresight - 2000s Change in the S&T dominated appearance with increasing

concerns on social aspects due to:

• The increasing importance of innovation (both technological and organisational)

• The development of service economies. Considerable portions of economic activity, employment and output have started taking place in service sectors of the economy

• Other developments including globalisation, changes in demographic structures and in cultural practices, and environmental affairs

• Recognition of the close relationship between S&T and society



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– “the application of ‘systematic’, ‘participatory’, ‘future-intelligence-gathering and medium-to-long-term vision building process’ to ‘informing present-day decisions and mobilising joint actions’”

Five essential elements of Foresight

Miles and Keenan (2002)



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Foresight – 2010s? Policy contexts and challenges

The new global context Increased financial, trade and investment flows

Rapid and accelerating technological progress; ICTs, biotechnology, fuel cells, nanotechnologies

New international regulations and standards on trade, quality, labor, environment, intellectual property rights

New systems to design, produce, distribute, and manage products and services

Global value chains and production networks



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Shift from government to governance Shift from ‘government’ to ‘governance’ and thus a new

‘regulatory’ state– Inclusiveness and equity through freedom of association and expression, and an

organised civil society with full protection of human rights

– Democratic society influencing, restraining or blocking policy design and implementation

– Contributions from society, firms, institutions, and associations to enhance public policy within a new normative and legal framework

– Effectiveness and efficiency in meeting society’s expectations and sustainable use of resources

The quest for new forms of governance is structured around three pillars



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Foresight

New Foresight landscape



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Foresight



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Health and social services system Understanding of the interdependencies and dynamics of the health

and social services system

Interdependency of sub-systems in the welfare system



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Implications for Foresight practice Nature of situations have become more complex and uncertain

Traditional method-driven “systematic” Foresight practice is not sufficient to deal with these situations

Introduction of thought experiments for understanding, appreciation and modelling

Need for “Systemic Foresight” approaches



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System

System– “A set of elements connected together which form a

whole, this showing the properties which are properties of the whole, rather than properties of its component parts” (Checkland, 1981, p.4).

Systems Thinking: Viewing ‘events’ as a system and/or part of larger systems



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• The effect of one or more system elements on the properties or on the behaviour of the other(s)

•Due to interrelatedness and interdependency between system elements, systems have some characteristics or behavioural patterns that cannot be exhibited by any of its subsets

Causality

• The whole is more than the sum of its parts

• The parts cannot be considered in isolation from the whole

• The behaviour of the system cannot be understood independent from its context

Holism

•The grouping or arrangement of systems according to their higher and lower influence and coverage levels (e.g. upper level systems and sub-systems or nested systems).

• Systems exist as parts of larger wholes, while they themselves provide organisation to their own sub-systems

Hierarchy

• Systems transform themselves continuously and therefore are dynamic

• This explains an iterative, dynamic and non-linear process

• Two types of continuity (i) Continuity of looped action sequence (ii) The recursion of the looped action sequence in time

Continuity



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Systemic understanding – Creates shared understanding and mutual

appreciation of issues at hand Systems synthesis and modelling

– The input from scanning is synthesised into conceptual models of the situations involved in the real world

Systemic analysis and Selection – Analyses the alternative models of the future

and ‘prioritises’ them, through intensive negotiations among system actors and stakeholders, to create an agreed model of the future

System transformation – Establishes the relationship between the

future and the present for a change programme

Systemic action – Creates plans to inform present day decisions

for immediate change to provide structural and behavioural transformations

Thought experiments

Systemic Foresight Methodology



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Understanding context, content & process of Foresight

Social system

Technological system

Economic system

Ecological system

Political system

Values



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Questions for SFM

Science &Ecology

Technology& Economics

SocioeconomicsPolitics & Values

What is possible?

What is desirable?

What is feasible?

Systemic Foresight

Systemic Foresight



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Foresight practice has moved from being ‘systematic’ to ‘systemic’

Systemic Foresight Methodology (SFM) concerns ‘situations’, which is characterised by sets of events that may be that may be coincident or serial or both that create a situation not a problem

Provides greater awareness and understanding and appreciation of complex Social, Technological, Economic, Ecological, Political and Value (STEEPV) systems

SFM involves a ‘soft process of inquiry’ , which is characterised by subjective opinion

SFM meets expectations for inclusivity, transparency and involvement

Conclusions



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End of presentation..

Dr. Ozcan [email protected]

Systemic Foresight Methodology Dr. Ozcan Saritas [email protected]

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