Post on 20-Jan-2016
State Budgets Under Stress
Larry DeBoerPurdue University
September 20, 2011
Purdue Cooperative Extension Service
Real GDP Growth
Unemployment Rate
Payroll Employment
Index of Consumer Sentiment
57.8Sept ‘11
Real House Price Index
Residential Building Permits
Auto and Light Truck Sales (annual basis)
Real Federal Government Purchases
Federal Funds Interest Rates
Corporate Bond Interest Rates, AAA and BAA
BAA
AAA
CPI Inflation, All Items and Core
Core (less food and energy)
All Items
Crude Oil Price, Nominal and Real
Real
Nominal
Source: World Bank
State Income Growth, Great Recession, 2007IV - 2009II
Nevada
Connecticut
Idaho
California
New York
New Jersey
New Hampshire
Illinois
Michigan
Arizona
Colorado
Florida
Minnesota
Arkansas
Delaware
Massachusetts
Ohio
Tennessee
Indiana
Georgia
Utah
Wisconsin
Nebraska
North Carolina
Oregon
Rhode Island
Missouri
Washington
Vermont
Pennsylvania
Hawaii
Alabama
Montana
Mississippi
South Carolina
Maryland
Virginia
Iowa
South Dakota
Maine
Kansas
Oklahoma
Kentucky
New Mexico
Louisiana
Wyoming
Texas
Alaska
North Dakota
West Virginia
Percent Income Growth
-6 to 0
0 to 2
2 to 8
State Income Growth, Recovery, 2009II - 2011 I
NevadaNew Jersey
Florida
Arizona
Hawaii
Maine
Missouri
Connecticut
Georgia
New York
Alabama
New Hampshire
Oregon
Rhode Island
Illinois
Maryland
Massachusetts
Mississippi
Michigan
West Virginia
Louisiana
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Delaware
Iowa
South Dakota
Virginia
California
South Carolina
Vermont
Arkansas
North Carolina
Nebraska
Washington
Idaho
Utah
Kansas
Colorado
Indiana
Kentucky
Tennessee
Wyoming
Wisconsin
MontanaMinnesota
New Mexico
Alaska
Texas
Oklahoma
North Dakota
Percent Income Growth
0 to 5
5 to 7
7 to 20
MichiganOhioIndianaWisconsinPennsylvaniaIllinois
State Personal Income Growth, 1999-2007
Michigan
Ohio
Indiana
Wisconsin
Pennsylvania
Illinois
West Virginia
MissouriKentucky
Iowa
Maine
Minnesota
Oregon
Kansas
Nebraska
New Jersey
Massachusetts
Tennessee
Rhode Island
Vermont
Mississippi
New Hampshire
New York
Alabama
Connecticut
North Carolina
South Carolina
California
Washington
Georgia
Delaware
North Dakota
Louisiana
Maryland
Arkansas
Colorado
South Dakota
Alaska
Hawaii
Oklahoma
Virginia
New Mexico
Texas
Montana
Idaho
Florida
Utah
Arizona
Nevada
Wyoming
Percent Income Growth0 to 45
45 to 60
60 to 100
Manufacturing Employment, Indiana
State Balances as Percent of Budget, Actual 2008
Arkansas
Wisconsin
Oregon
Arizona
Illinois
Rhode Island
California
Kentucky
Maine
New Jersey
Colorado
South Carolina
Michigan
Vermont
Pennsylvania
New York
Alabama
Florida
North Carolina
New Hampshire
Utah
Hawaii
Washington
Virginia
Maryland
Connecticut
Kansas
Mississippi
Massachusetts
South Dakota
Tennessee
Ohio
Iowa
Indiana
Minnesota
Nevada
Georgia
New Mexico
Idaho
Oklahoma
Missouri
Delaware
Wyoming
Louisiana
Montana
Texas
West Virginia
Nebraska
North Dakota
Alaska
Budget Percent
0 to 5
5 to 10
10 to 200
Source: NASBO, Fiscal Survey of the States
Balances as Percent of Budgets, Actual 2010
California
Oregon
Washington
Pennsylvania
Kansas
ArizonaArkansas
Maine
Wisconsin
Hawaii
Kentucky
Alabama
Idaho
IllinoisColorado
Ohio
North Carolina
Michigan
Connecticut
New Jersey
Virginia
Massachusetts
Minnesota
New York
Rhode Island
South Carolina
Utah
New Mexico
Vermont
Missouri
New Hampshire
Mississippi
Louisiana
Indiana
Georgia
MarylandTennessee
Oklahoma
Florida
South Dakota
Nevada
Iowa
Delaware
Montana
Wyoming
Nebraska
Texas
West Virginia
North Dakota
Alaska
Balance Percent
-10 to 5
5 to 10
10 to 200
State Balances as Percent of Budget, Recommended 2012
Connecticut
Alabama
Arkansas
Idaho
Pennsylvania
KansasKentucky
Washington
Arizona
Ohio
Wisconsin
Maine
New Jersey
New Hampshire
North Carolina
Mississippi
California
Michigan
Massachusetts
Minnesota
Virginia
Utah
New York
Tennessee
Hawaii
Florida
IllinoisColorado
Missouri
Oregon
Vermont
Rhode Island
Maryland
Nevada
New MexicoOklahoma
South Carolina
Indiana
Georgia
Louisiana
Nebraska
South Dakota
Montana
Iowa
Texas
Delaware
North Dakota
West Virginia
Wyoming
Alaska
Balance Percent
-20 to 5
5 to 10
10 to 200
State Mid-Year Revenue Increases, Percent of Revenues, 2011
Minnesota
Alabama
Alaska
ArizonaArkansas
CaliforniaColorado
Connecticut
Delaware
Florida
Georgia
Idaho
Indiana
Iowa
KansasKentucky
Louisiana
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming
Maine
Virginia
Hawaii
NevadaOhio
Illinois
Percent of Revenues
0.0
0.0 to 5.0
5.0 to 20.0
State Mid-Year Spending Cuts, Percent of Budget, 2011
Alaska
Arkansas
Delaware
Florida
Idaho
Iowa
Kentucky
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Nebraska
New Hampshire
New York
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
South Carolina
Tennessee
Utah
VirginiaWest Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming
Connecticut
Hawaii
Rhode Island
California
Pennsylvania
Vermont
Georgia
Arizona
Louisiana
Montana
Kansas
Maine
New Jersey
North Carolina
Illinois
South Dakota
New Mexico
Missouri
Colorado
Texas
Washington
Indiana
Alabama
Nevada
Oregon
Spending Cut Percent
0.0
0.0 to 5.0
5.0 to 20.0
State and Local Purchases, Percent Change from Previous Year, Adjusted for Inflation
State Government Employment
Local Government Employment: Education
Local Government Employment: Non-Education
State Budgets Under Stress
Larry DeBoerPurdue University
September 20, 2011
Purdue Cooperative Extension Service