State Budgets Under Stress Larry DeBoer Purdue University September 20, 2011 Purdue Cooperative...

36
State Budgets Under Stress Larry DeBoer Purdue University September 20, 2011 Purdue Cooperative Extension Service

Transcript of State Budgets Under Stress Larry DeBoer Purdue University September 20, 2011 Purdue Cooperative...

Page 1: State Budgets Under Stress Larry DeBoer Purdue University September 20, 2011 Purdue Cooperative Extension Service.

State Budgets Under Stress

Larry DeBoerPurdue University

September 20, 2011

Purdue Cooperative Extension Service

Page 2: State Budgets Under Stress Larry DeBoer Purdue University September 20, 2011 Purdue Cooperative Extension Service.

Real GDP Growth

Page 3: State Budgets Under Stress Larry DeBoer Purdue University September 20, 2011 Purdue Cooperative Extension Service.

Unemployment Rate

Page 4: State Budgets Under Stress Larry DeBoer Purdue University September 20, 2011 Purdue Cooperative Extension Service.

Payroll Employment

Page 5: State Budgets Under Stress Larry DeBoer Purdue University September 20, 2011 Purdue Cooperative Extension Service.

Index of Consumer Sentiment

57.8Sept ‘11

Page 6: State Budgets Under Stress Larry DeBoer Purdue University September 20, 2011 Purdue Cooperative Extension Service.

Real House Price Index

Page 7: State Budgets Under Stress Larry DeBoer Purdue University September 20, 2011 Purdue Cooperative Extension Service.

Residential Building Permits

Page 8: State Budgets Under Stress Larry DeBoer Purdue University September 20, 2011 Purdue Cooperative Extension Service.

Auto and Light Truck Sales (annual basis)

Page 9: State Budgets Under Stress Larry DeBoer Purdue University September 20, 2011 Purdue Cooperative Extension Service.

Real Federal Government Purchases

Page 10: State Budgets Under Stress Larry DeBoer Purdue University September 20, 2011 Purdue Cooperative Extension Service.

Federal Funds Interest Rates

Page 11: State Budgets Under Stress Larry DeBoer Purdue University September 20, 2011 Purdue Cooperative Extension Service.

Corporate Bond Interest Rates, AAA and BAA

BAA

AAA

Page 12: State Budgets Under Stress Larry DeBoer Purdue University September 20, 2011 Purdue Cooperative Extension Service.

CPI Inflation, All Items and Core

Core (less food and energy)

All Items

Page 13: State Budgets Under Stress Larry DeBoer Purdue University September 20, 2011 Purdue Cooperative Extension Service.

Crude Oil Price, Nominal and Real

Real

Nominal

Page 14: State Budgets Under Stress Larry DeBoer Purdue University September 20, 2011 Purdue Cooperative Extension Service.

Source: World Bank

Page 15: State Budgets Under Stress Larry DeBoer Purdue University September 20, 2011 Purdue Cooperative Extension Service.

State Income Growth, Great Recession, 2007IV - 2009II

Nevada

Connecticut

Idaho

California

New York

New Jersey

New Hampshire

Illinois

Michigan

Arizona

Colorado

Florida

Minnesota

Arkansas

Delaware

Massachusetts

Ohio

Tennessee

Indiana

Georgia

Utah

Wisconsin

Nebraska

North Carolina

Oregon

Rhode Island

Missouri

Washington

Vermont

Pennsylvania

Hawaii

Alabama

Montana

Mississippi

South Carolina

Maryland

Virginia

Iowa

South Dakota

Maine

Kansas

Oklahoma

Kentucky

New Mexico

Louisiana

Wyoming

Texas

Alaska

North Dakota

West Virginia

Percent Income Growth

-6 to 0

0 to 2

2 to 8

Page 16: State Budgets Under Stress Larry DeBoer Purdue University September 20, 2011 Purdue Cooperative Extension Service.

State Income Growth, Recovery, 2009II - 2011 I

NevadaNew Jersey

Florida

Arizona

Hawaii

Maine

Missouri

Connecticut

Georgia

New York

Alabama

New Hampshire

Oregon

Rhode Island

Illinois

Maryland

Massachusetts

Mississippi

Michigan

West Virginia

Louisiana

Ohio

Pennsylvania

Delaware

Iowa

South Dakota

Virginia

California

South Carolina

Vermont

Arkansas

North Carolina

Nebraska

Washington

Idaho

Utah

Kansas

Colorado

Indiana

Kentucky

Tennessee

Wyoming

Wisconsin

MontanaMinnesota

New Mexico

Alaska

Texas

Oklahoma

North Dakota

Percent Income Growth

0 to 5

5 to 7

7 to 20

Page 17: State Budgets Under Stress Larry DeBoer Purdue University September 20, 2011 Purdue Cooperative Extension Service.
Page 18: State Budgets Under Stress Larry DeBoer Purdue University September 20, 2011 Purdue Cooperative Extension Service.
Page 19: State Budgets Under Stress Larry DeBoer Purdue University September 20, 2011 Purdue Cooperative Extension Service.
Page 20: State Budgets Under Stress Larry DeBoer Purdue University September 20, 2011 Purdue Cooperative Extension Service.

MichiganOhioIndianaWisconsinPennsylvaniaIllinois

Page 21: State Budgets Under Stress Larry DeBoer Purdue University September 20, 2011 Purdue Cooperative Extension Service.

State Personal Income Growth, 1999-2007

Michigan

Ohio

Indiana

Wisconsin

Pennsylvania

Illinois

West Virginia

MissouriKentucky

Iowa

Maine

Minnesota

Oregon

Kansas

Nebraska

New Jersey

Massachusetts

Tennessee

Rhode Island

Vermont

Mississippi

New Hampshire

New York

Alabama

Connecticut

North Carolina

South Carolina

California

Washington

Georgia

Delaware

North Dakota

Louisiana

Maryland

Arkansas

Colorado

South Dakota

Alaska

Hawaii

Oklahoma

Virginia

New Mexico

Texas

Montana

Idaho

Florida

Utah

Arizona

Nevada

Wyoming

Percent Income Growth0 to 45

45 to 60

60 to 100

Page 22: State Budgets Under Stress Larry DeBoer Purdue University September 20, 2011 Purdue Cooperative Extension Service.
Page 23: State Budgets Under Stress Larry DeBoer Purdue University September 20, 2011 Purdue Cooperative Extension Service.

Manufacturing Employment, Indiana

Page 24: State Budgets Under Stress Larry DeBoer Purdue University September 20, 2011 Purdue Cooperative Extension Service.
Page 25: State Budgets Under Stress Larry DeBoer Purdue University September 20, 2011 Purdue Cooperative Extension Service.
Page 26: State Budgets Under Stress Larry DeBoer Purdue University September 20, 2011 Purdue Cooperative Extension Service.
Page 27: State Budgets Under Stress Larry DeBoer Purdue University September 20, 2011 Purdue Cooperative Extension Service.

State Balances as Percent of Budget, Actual 2008

Arkansas

Wisconsin

Oregon

Arizona

Illinois

Rhode Island

California

Kentucky

Maine

New Jersey

Colorado

South Carolina

Michigan

Vermont

Pennsylvania

New York

Alabama

Florida

North Carolina

New Hampshire

Utah

Hawaii

Washington

Virginia

Maryland

Connecticut

Kansas

Mississippi

Massachusetts

South Dakota

Tennessee

Ohio

Iowa

Indiana

Minnesota

Nevada

Georgia

New Mexico

Idaho

Oklahoma

Missouri

Delaware

Wyoming

Louisiana

Montana

Texas

West Virginia

Nebraska

North Dakota

Alaska

Budget Percent

0 to 5

5 to 10

10 to 200

Source: NASBO, Fiscal Survey of the States

Page 28: State Budgets Under Stress Larry DeBoer Purdue University September 20, 2011 Purdue Cooperative Extension Service.

Balances as Percent of Budgets, Actual 2010

California

Oregon

Washington

Pennsylvania

Kansas

ArizonaArkansas

Maine

Wisconsin

Hawaii

Kentucky

Alabama

Idaho

IllinoisColorado

Ohio

North Carolina

Michigan

Connecticut

New Jersey

Virginia

Massachusetts

Minnesota

New York

Rhode Island

South Carolina

Utah

New Mexico

Vermont

Missouri

New Hampshire

Mississippi

Louisiana

Indiana

Georgia

MarylandTennessee

Oklahoma

Florida

South Dakota

Nevada

Iowa

Delaware

Montana

Wyoming

Nebraska

Texas

West Virginia

North Dakota

Alaska

Balance Percent

-10 to 5

5 to 10

10 to 200

Page 29: State Budgets Under Stress Larry DeBoer Purdue University September 20, 2011 Purdue Cooperative Extension Service.

State Balances as Percent of Budget, Recommended 2012

Connecticut

Alabama

Arkansas

Idaho

Pennsylvania

KansasKentucky

Washington

Arizona

Ohio

Wisconsin

Maine

New Jersey

New Hampshire

North Carolina

Mississippi

California

Michigan

Massachusetts

Minnesota

Virginia

Utah

New York

Tennessee

Hawaii

Florida

IllinoisColorado

Missouri

Oregon

Vermont

Rhode Island

Maryland

Nevada

New MexicoOklahoma

South Carolina

Indiana

Georgia

Louisiana

Nebraska

South Dakota

Montana

Iowa

Texas

Delaware

North Dakota

West Virginia

Wyoming

Alaska

Balance Percent

-20 to 5

5 to 10

10 to 200

Page 30: State Budgets Under Stress Larry DeBoer Purdue University September 20, 2011 Purdue Cooperative Extension Service.

State Mid-Year Revenue Increases, Percent of Revenues, 2011

Minnesota

Alabama

Alaska

ArizonaArkansas

CaliforniaColorado

Connecticut

Delaware

Florida

Georgia

Idaho

Indiana

Iowa

KansasKentucky

Louisiana

Maryland

Massachusetts

Michigan

Mississippi

Missouri

Montana

Nebraska

New Hampshire

New Jersey

New Mexico

New York

North Carolina

North Dakota

Oklahoma

Oregon

Pennsylvania

Rhode Island

South Carolina

South Dakota

Tennessee

Texas

Utah

Vermont

Washington

West Virginia

Wisconsin

Wyoming

Maine

Virginia

Hawaii

NevadaOhio

Illinois

Percent of Revenues

0.0

0.0 to 5.0

5.0 to 20.0

Page 31: State Budgets Under Stress Larry DeBoer Purdue University September 20, 2011 Purdue Cooperative Extension Service.

State Mid-Year Spending Cuts, Percent of Budget, 2011

Alaska

Arkansas

Delaware

Florida

Idaho

Iowa

Kentucky

Maryland

Massachusetts

Michigan

Minnesota

Mississippi

Nebraska

New Hampshire

New York

North Dakota

Ohio

Oklahoma

South Carolina

Tennessee

Utah

VirginiaWest Virginia

Wisconsin

Wyoming

Connecticut

Hawaii

Rhode Island

California

Pennsylvania

Vermont

Georgia

Arizona

Louisiana

Montana

Kansas

Maine

New Jersey

North Carolina

Illinois

South Dakota

New Mexico

Missouri

Colorado

Texas

Washington

Indiana

Alabama

Nevada

Oregon

Spending Cut Percent

0.0

0.0 to 5.0

5.0 to 20.0

Page 32: State Budgets Under Stress Larry DeBoer Purdue University September 20, 2011 Purdue Cooperative Extension Service.

State and Local Purchases, Percent Change from Previous Year, Adjusted for Inflation

Page 33: State Budgets Under Stress Larry DeBoer Purdue University September 20, 2011 Purdue Cooperative Extension Service.

State Government Employment

Page 34: State Budgets Under Stress Larry DeBoer Purdue University September 20, 2011 Purdue Cooperative Extension Service.

Local Government Employment: Education

Page 35: State Budgets Under Stress Larry DeBoer Purdue University September 20, 2011 Purdue Cooperative Extension Service.

Local Government Employment: Non-Education

Page 36: State Budgets Under Stress Larry DeBoer Purdue University September 20, 2011 Purdue Cooperative Extension Service.

State Budgets Under Stress

Larry DeBoerPurdue University

September 20, 2011

Purdue Cooperative Extension Service