Session GoalsThe complexity of estimating population parametersMetrics for quantifying population statusLinkage of these metrics to habitat features

Main Questions

How do different habitats and their features affect salmon populations? What management options will best improve population persistence?

Emergent Fry

Spawning Adults

Eggs

Juveniles Adults

Juveniles Adults

Redd

Stream

Estuary

Nearshore

OceanAdults

Emergent Fry

Spawning Adults

Eggs

Juveniles Adults

Juveniles

Adults

Redd

Stream

Estuary

Nearshore

Ocean

Incubation Conditions

Freshwater Habitat

Conditions

Estuary Habitat

Conditions

LAND USE/ RESTORATION

FISHINGAdults

The Complexity of Parameterizing

a Habitat-Specific Model

Stream flowTemperature

GradientSubstrate heterogeneity

Riparian vegetationWoody debris

Predator abundance

Surv

ival

Woody Debris

Nonlinearities? Interactions?

Surv

ival

Stream Flow

Low gradients

High gradients Surv

ival

Temperature

Scale Dependency?Pools

TributariesReaches

Habitat VariableSurvival

FecundityHabitat ResidencyAge at maturity

Sex ratioDensityCapacity

Demographic variable

Stream flowTemperature

GradientSubstrate heterogeneity

Riparian vegetationWoody debris

Predator abundance

Emergent Fry

Spawning Adults

Eggs

Juveniles Adults

Juveniles Adults

Redd

Stream

Estuary

Nearshore

OceanAdults

A Coarse-ScaleParameterization

Emergent Fry

Spawning Adults

Eggs

Juveniles Adults

Juveniles Adults

Redd

Stream

Estuary

Nearshore

OceanAdults

rj

ej

sj

nj

o

m

na

ea

sa

Skagit River

Age 1 2

1 o2µnaeasafm

2 rsjejnjo1

A Habitat-Specific Model for Pink Salmon

r s e n = habitat-specific survival µ = 1 - (harvest mortality) ox = ocean survival f = natal sex ratio

m = age-specific fecundity

Leslie Matrix

A Habitat-Specific Model for Pink Salmon

N2002

112 M

56,000*

r s e n = habitat-specific survival µ = 1 - (harvest mortality) ox = ocean survival f = natal sex ratio

m = age-specific fecundity

Age 1 2

1 o2µnaeasafm

2 rsjejnjo1

A Habitat-Specific Model for Pink Salmon

N2002

112 M

56,000

N2003

176 M

63,000* =

r s e n = habitat-specific survival µ = 1 - (harvest mortality) ox = ocean survival f = natal sex ratio

m = age-specific fecundity

Age 1 2

1 o2µnaeasafm

2 rsjejnjo1

Metrics of Population Status

Number of juveniles: N(1)trsjejnj

Number of spawners: N(2)to2a2µnaeasa

Population productivity (): Nt+1/Nt

Nt

N(1)t

N(2)t

Nt+1

N(1)t+1

N(2)t+1

* =Age 1 2

1 o2µnaeasafm

2 rsjejnjo1

Age 1 2 3 4 5

1 o3a3µnaeasafm3

o4a4µnaeasafm4o5a5µnaeasafm5

2rsjejnj

3 o2

4 o3(1-a3)

5 o4(1-a4)

A Habitat-Specific Modelfor Chinook Salmon

r s e n = habitat-specific survival µ = 1 - (harvest mortality) ox = yearly ocean survival f = natal sex ratioax = age-specific breeding propensity mx = age-specific fecundity

Freshwater Survival

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

0 50,000 100,000 150,000High Flood (cfs)

Fres

hwat

er S

urvi

val

From Seiler et al, 2000

y = 0.202 – 1.23*10-6xR2 = 0.87

Density Dependence in Harvest

0%

20%

40%

60%

0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000

Returning Adults

Surv

ival

afte

r Har

vest

Age 1 2 3 4 5

1 o3a3µnaeasafm3

o4a4µnaeasafm4o5a5µnaeasafm5

2rsjejnj

3 o2

4 o3(1-a3)

5 o4(1-a4)

A Habitat-Specific Modelfor Chinook Salmon

r s e n = habitat-specific survival µ = 1 - (harvest mortality) ox = yearly ocean survival f = natal sex ratioax = age-specific breeding propensity mx = age-specific fecundity

Main Questions

How do different habitats and their features affect salmon populations? What management options will best improve population persistence?

rj

ej

sj

nj

o

# o

f Sp

awne

rs

Present20% Increase

in Survival

Future

Emergent Fry

Spawning Adults

Eggs

Juveniles Adults

Juveniles Adults

Redd

Stream

Estuary

Nearshore

OceanAdults

What is the relative importance

of each parameter?

How important is each parameter?

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

Parameter

% Ch

ange

in #

of S

paw

ners

rj sj ej nj ox 0.000.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.09

Parameter

% Ch

ange

in

rj sj ej nj ox

Density Dependence in Estuaries

(Beamer et al 2000)0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

0 2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000Outmigrants

Estu

ary

Dens

ity (fi

sh/h

a)

Density Dependence in Estuaries

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

0 2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000Outmigrants

% Fr

y M

igra

nts

(Beamer pers. comm.)

Different Types of Density Dependence Have Different

Consequences

1.0E+00

1.0E+03

1.0E+06

1.0E+09

1.0E+12

1.0E+15

0 20 40 60 80 100

Year

1.0E+00

1.0E+03

1.0E+06

1.0E+09

1.0E+12

1.0E+15

0 20 40 60 80 100

Year

Popu

latio

n Si

ze

Fry MigrantsEstuary Users

Habitat SelectionNDD Survival

Research Priorities

Effects of fine-scale habitat features

Effects of large-scale variation on population dynamics

Movements of salmon among aquatic habitats