Session Goals
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Session Goals The complexity of estimating population parameters Metrics for quantifying population status Linkage of these metrics to habitat features Main Questions How do different habitats and their features affect salmon populations? What management options will best improve population persistence?
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Session Goals. The complexity of estimating population parameters Metrics for quantifying population status Linkage of these metrics to habitat features. Main Questions How do different habitats and their features affect salmon populations? - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Session Goals
Session GoalsThe complexity of estimating population parametersMetrics for quantifying population statusLinkage of these metrics to habitat features
Main Questions
How do different habitats and their features affect salmon populations? What management options will best improve population persistence?
Emergent Fry
Spawning Adults
Eggs
Juveniles Adults
Juveniles Adults
Redd
Stream
Estuary
Nearshore
OceanAdults
Emergent Fry
Spawning Adults
Eggs
Juveniles Adults
Juveniles
Adults
Redd
Stream
Estuary
Nearshore
Ocean
Incubation Conditions
Freshwater Habitat
Conditions
Estuary Habitat
Conditions
LAND USE/ RESTORATION
FISHINGAdults
The Complexity of Parameterizing
a Habitat-Specific Model
Stream flowTemperature
GradientSubstrate heterogeneity
Riparian vegetationWoody debris
Predator abundance
Surv
ival
Woody Debris
Nonlinearities? Interactions?
Surv
ival
Stream Flow
Low gradients
High gradients Surv
ival
Temperature
Scale Dependency?Pools
TributariesReaches
Habitat VariableSurvival
FecundityHabitat ResidencyAge at maturity
Sex ratioDensityCapacity
Demographic variable
Stream flowTemperature
GradientSubstrate heterogeneity
Riparian vegetationWoody debris
Predator abundance
Emergent Fry
Spawning Adults
Eggs
Juveniles Adults
Juveniles Adults
Redd
Stream
Estuary
Nearshore
OceanAdults
A Coarse-ScaleParameterization
Emergent Fry
Spawning Adults
Eggs
Juveniles Adults
Juveniles Adults
Redd
Stream
Estuary
Nearshore
OceanAdults
rj
ej
sj
nj
o
m
na
ea
sa
Skagit River
Age 1 2
1 o2µnaeasafm
2 rsjejnjo1
A Habitat-Specific Model for Pink Salmon
r s e n = habitat-specific survival µ = 1 - (harvest mortality) ox = ocean survival f = natal sex ratio
m = age-specific fecundity
Leslie Matrix
A Habitat-Specific Model for Pink Salmon
N2002
112 M
56,000*
r s e n = habitat-specific survival µ = 1 - (harvest mortality) ox = ocean survival f = natal sex ratio
m = age-specific fecundity
Age 1 2
1 o2µnaeasafm
2 rsjejnjo1
A Habitat-Specific Model for Pink Salmon
N2002
112 M
56,000
N2003
176 M
63,000* =
r s e n = habitat-specific survival µ = 1 - (harvest mortality) ox = ocean survival f = natal sex ratio
m = age-specific fecundity
Age 1 2
1 o2µnaeasafm
2 rsjejnjo1
Metrics of Population Status
Number of juveniles: N(1)trsjejnj
Number of spawners: N(2)to2a2µnaeasa
Population productivity (): Nt+1/Nt
Nt
N(1)t
N(2)t
Nt+1
N(1)t+1
N(2)t+1
* =Age 1 2
1 o2µnaeasafm
2 rsjejnjo1
Age 1 2 3 4 5
1 o3a3µnaeasafm3
o4a4µnaeasafm4o5a5µnaeasafm5
2rsjejnj
3 o2
4 o3(1-a3)
5 o4(1-a4)
A Habitat-Specific Modelfor Chinook Salmon
r s e n = habitat-specific survival µ = 1 - (harvest mortality) ox = yearly ocean survival f = natal sex ratioax = age-specific breeding propensity mx = age-specific fecundity
Freshwater Survival
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
0 50,000 100,000 150,000High Flood (cfs)
Fres
hwat
er S
urvi
val
From Seiler et al, 2000
y = 0.202 – 1.23*10-6xR2 = 0.87
Density Dependence in Harvest
0%
20%
40%
60%
0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000
Returning Adults
Surv
ival
afte
r Har
vest
Age 1 2 3 4 5
1 o3a3µnaeasafm3
o4a4µnaeasafm4o5a5µnaeasafm5
2rsjejnj
3 o2
4 o3(1-a3)
5 o4(1-a4)
A Habitat-Specific Modelfor Chinook Salmon
r s e n = habitat-specific survival µ = 1 - (harvest mortality) ox = yearly ocean survival f = natal sex ratioax = age-specific breeding propensity mx = age-specific fecundity
Main Questions
How do different habitats and their features affect salmon populations? What management options will best improve population persistence?
rj
ej
sj
nj
o
# o
f Sp
awne
rs
Present20% Increase
in Survival
Future
Emergent Fry
Spawning Adults
Eggs
Juveniles Adults
Juveniles Adults
Redd
Stream
Estuary
Nearshore
OceanAdults
What is the relative importance
of each parameter?
How important is each parameter?
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
Parameter
% Ch
ange
in #
of S
paw
ners
rj sj ej nj ox 0.000.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.09
Parameter
% Ch
ange
in
rj sj ej nj ox
Density Dependence in Estuaries
(Beamer et al 2000)0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
0 2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000Outmigrants
Estu
ary
Dens
ity (fi
sh/h
a)
Density Dependence in Estuaries
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
0 2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000Outmigrants
% Fr
y M
igra
nts
(Beamer pers. comm.)
Different Types of Density Dependence Have Different
Consequences
1.0E+00
1.0E+03
1.0E+06
1.0E+09
1.0E+12
1.0E+15
0 20 40 60 80 100
Year
1.0E+00
1.0E+03
1.0E+06
1.0E+09
1.0E+12
1.0E+15
0 20 40 60 80 100
Year
Popu
latio
n Si
ze
Fry MigrantsEstuary Users
Habitat SelectionNDD Survival
Research Priorities
Effects of fine-scale habitat features
Effects of large-scale variation on population dynamics
Movements of salmon among aquatic habitats
