Post on 01-Jan-2016
Report on Marine Insurance Premium 2002 and 2003
Tore Forsmo, Managing DirectorAstrid Seltmann, Analyst
The Central Union of Marine Underwriters, Oslo, Norway
Thanks also toFédération Française des Sociétés d’Assurances (FFSA) and the
International Underwriting Association of London (IUA)
IUMI 2004 Singapore IUMI 2004 Singapore Facts & Figures CommitteeFacts & Figures Committee
World Merchant Fleet by type of ship of 300gt and over
As at January 1st, 2004 – Number of ships in share of the World Reported Fleet, growth rate 1999-2004 (%) and average age
General cargo 35.6% (-4.03%)
Oil Tankers 19.1% (+7.61%)
Container ships 7.6% (+28.48%)
Passengers 10.0% (+9.51%)
Bulk carriers 15.1% (+2.66%)
Liquefied gas 2.9% (+10.48%)
Chemical tankers 3.3% (+1.37%)
Reefer ships 3.0% (-12.85%)
Ro-Ro cargo 3.0% (+8.16%)
Ore/Bulk/Oil 0.4% (-23.79%)
WORLD REPORTED FLEET Total number : 39,665 ships
increased by + 2.85% on the period Average age : 19.1 years
22.2 years
18.2 years
15.2 years
22.1 years
10.5 years
15.9 y
17.6 y
19.6
y
19.8
y
Source: Indicators issued from various sources such as ISL Bremen for World fleet and trading figures (as at May 2004) and Clarkson Research Studies for shipbuilding and scrapped vessels (as at June 2004).
World Merchant Reported Fleet by type of ships 300gt and over
As at January 1st, 2004 – Deadweight and growth rate 1999-2004
840.355
90.214 12.107
317.827
20.835 8.791
289.510
80.259
6.758 8.171 5.883
+ 48.60%
+ 15.83%+ 18.61%
+ 11.93%
- 33.20%
- 5.71%- 9.65%
+ 9.95%+ 3.41%
+ 27.17%
+ 14.23%
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
Oil Tankers Chemicaltankers
Liquefiedgas
Bulk carriersOre/Bulk/Oil Containerships
Passengers Generalcargo
Reefer shipsRo-Ro cargo Total
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
million DWT in 2004 Growth rate 1999/ 2004
Source: Indicators issued from various sources such as ISL Bremen for World fleet and trading figures (as at May 2004) and Clarkson Research Studies for shipbuilding and scrapped vessels (as at June 2004).
World Merchant Fleet of ships of 300gt and over
Evolution of the growth rates (GT, DWT, and Number of ships) between 1993 and 2004
39,665 ships + 14.2%
38,500 ships (+ 10.8%)
488,032 mGT (+ 18.8%)
570,325 m GT + 38.9%
743,611 mDWT (+ 12.2%)
840,355 m DWT + 26.8%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Source: Indicators issued from various sources such as ISL Bremen for World fleet and trading figures (as at May 2004) and Clarkson Research Studies for shipbuilding and scrapped vessels (as at June 2004).
World Merchant Fleet by National and Foreign Flag
As at January 1st, 2004 – million DWT and number of ships
13,283 13,183 13,071 12,905 12,91612,646
12,22512,996
13,12113,342 13,305
13,840
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
million DWTNational Flag Foreign Flag
Ships of 1,000 GT and over
Total Units in the :
Reported Fleet
Not Reported Fleet
Total World Reported Fleet
25,508
3,700
26,179
3,371
26,192
3,524
26,247
3,686
26,221
4,174
26,486
4,117
29,208 29,550 29,716 29,933 30,395 30,603
Source: Indicators issued from various sources such as ISL Bremen for World fleet and trading figures (as at May 2004) and Clarkson Research Studies for shipbuilding and scrapped vessels (as at June 2004).
World Merchant Fleet – Top Ten Countries by National (NF) and Foreign Flags (FF)
As at January 1st, 2004
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Mill
ion
DW
T
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Years
million DWT NF million DWT FF Average Age NF Average Age FF
Top Ten Countries Fleet Average Age : 15.1 years
Ships of 1,000 GT and over
Average Age FF : 13.9 years Average Age NF : 18.0 years
Source: Indicators issued from various sources such as ISL Bremen for World fleet and trading figures (as at May 2004) and Clarkson Research Studies for shipbuilding and scrapped vessels (as at June 2004).
DWT-rank 2004 (2003)
Country of ManagementTotal fleet -
million DWT 2004
% share on the Total
World Fleet Reported in
2004
Growth rate 2003/2004
1(1) GREECE 156.4 20.1% + 5.0%2(2) JAPAN 109.5 14.0% + 6.1%3(3) NORWAY 50.8 6.5% -10.1%4(6) GERMANY 48.3 6.2% + 18.7%5(4) CHINA, PR of 45.6 5.8% + 6.8%6(5) USA 45.3 5.8% + 8.9%7(7) HONG-KONG 31.4 4.0% -16.5%8(8) KOREA, Rep.of 25.4 3.3% -0.8%9(10) SINGAPORE 23.0 2.9% + 20.4%10(9) TAIWAN 22.7 2.9% + 0.9%
558.4 71.6%Others countries 221.3 28.4% + 4.2%
779.7
832.2 4,117 ships for 52.5 million dwt
not reported
WORLD MERCHANT FLEET - THE TOP TEN COUNTRIES OF MANAGEMENT As at January 1st, 2004 – Rank in 2004 (in 2003) and million DWT
Total Top Ten Countries of Management
Total World Merchant Fleet by Country of Management
Total World Merchant Fleet (including fleets for which the Country of Management is unknown)
Source: Indicators issued from various sources such as ISL Bremen for World fleet and trading figures (as at May 2004) and Clarkson Research Studies for shipbuilding and scrapped vessels (as at June 2004).
Orderbook Evolution by type of ship
90.5 95.8 112.7 113.3 115.6
77.4
51.5
5.0
32.7
6.0
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Tankers >=1,000dwt Bulk Carriers >=10,000dwt LNG/LPG Carriers
Container Vessels >=5,000dwt Others (of which Passenger Vessels >=1000grt)
Total million DWT : 171.2
Source: Indicators issued from various sources such as ISL Bremen for World fleet and trading figures (as at May 2004) and Clarkson Research Studies for shipbuilding and scrapped vessels (as at June 2004).
Deliveries in 2003 by Country of Shipbuilder
Million DWT and number of ships
45.6
19.6
18.0
3.0
0.8
0.8
0.6
2.8
49.6
19.4
20.7
3.6
1.1
0.6
1.0
6.8
54.6 (1,051)
20.4 (329)
22.4 (230)
5.7 (145)
1 (51)
0.4 (12)
1.1 (13)
3.6 (271)
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
TOTAL
Japan
S.Korea
China, PR of
Germany
Poland
Taiwan
Others countriesEnd 2003
End 2002
End 2001
DELIVERIES by Region : ASIA : 750 ships (71.4% share)
EUROPE : 265 ships (25.2% share)Others : 36 ships
Source: Indicators issued from various sources such as ISL Bremen for World fleet and trading figures (as at May 2004) and Clarkson Research Studies for shipbuilding and scrapped vessels (as at June 2004).
World Seaborne Trade Volume Development 1993-2003 (in million tonnes)
Growth rate in 2003
+ 4.1%
+ 6.8%
+ 3.2%
+ 4.4%
900
1,100
1,300
1,500
1,700
1,900
2,100
2,300
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003(*)
Maj
or tr
ades
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
Total W
orld Trade
Crude oil and oil products The 4 main Dry Bulk Cargoes (Iron Ore, Coal, Grain, Bauxite/Alumina)Other Cargoes Total World Trade (*) estimates
Source: Indicators issued from various sources such as ISL Bremen for World fleet and trading figures (as at May 2004) and Clarkson Research Studies for shipbuilding and scrapped vessels (as at June 2004).
World Market Price Indices for Selected Commodities
Annual Average (1993-2003) – Average in 2004 as at end of May (*)
134.6
125.8
114.7
0
30
60
90
120
150
180
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 (*)
Grain Non ferrous metal Agricultural raw material
Index 2000 = 100
Source: Indicators issued from various sources such as ISL Bremen for World fleet and trading figures (as at May 2004) and Clarkson Research Studies for shipbuilding and scrapped vessels (as at June 2004).
World Market Price Indices for Selected Commodities
Annual Average (1993-2003) – Average in 2004 as at end of May (*)
161.2
190.2
117.5
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 (*)
Iron ore, scrap metals Coal Crude oil
Index 2000 = 100
Source: Indicators issued from various sources such as ISL Bremen for World fleet and trading figures (as at May 2004) and Clarkson Research Studies for shipbuilding and scrapped vessels (as at June 2004).
Report on marine insurance premiums 2002 and 2003
• By end of August 2003, 46 of 56 members reported their country’s marine premium figures for accounting years 2002 and 2003.
• Reported figures represent approx. 97% of the total marine premium written by all IUMI members in 2002 and 2003.
• Total premium for 2002 is therefore estimated to reach approx. USD 13.3 billion and for 2003 approx. USD 15.3 billion (excluding P&I from mutual P&I Clubs).
World Merchant Fleet and Global Marine Hull & Liability Premium
Index of evolution, vessels > 100 GT, 1995 = 100%
Source: Indicators for World Fleet from ISL Bremen
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
125%
150%
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
No. Ships
Gross tonnage
Global Marine Hull &Liab. Premium
World Seaborne Trade Volume and Global Cargo Premium
Index of evolution, 1995 = 100%
Source: Indicators for World Trade Volume from ISL Bremen
50%
75%
100%
125%
150%
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Total World TradeVolume
Global CargoPremium
Global premiums reported 1998 to 2003 (accounting years)
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000
USD (millions)
Total
Offshore / Energy
Marine Liability
Transport / Cargo
Global Hull 20032002200120001999
Reported Increase
2002->2003
15.2%
15.4%
15.0%
12.5%
15.0%
A major part of the 15 % increase is due to a weakening of US$ against major European and Asian currencies and thus not a real global volume increase!
Estimate of increase 2002->2003 without exchange rate impact
9%
3%
9%
7%
6%
Index of evolution of Exchange rates between US$ and selected currencies
(as of December each year)
Source: Norges Bank Exchange Rates Statistics
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
EUR
GBP
JPY
NOK
Market Shares 2003
2.1%11.6%
24.5%
61.9%
EuropeAsia/PacificNorth AmericaRest of World
Europe : Albania, Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom (IUA + Lloyds)Asia/Pacific : Australia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, North Korea, South Korea, Malaysia, New Zealand, Pakistan, SingaporeNorth America : Bermuda, Canada, USARest of the World : Congo, Egypt, Israel, Ivory Coast, Kenya, Lebanon, Mexico, Morocco, Nigeria, South Africa,Tunisia, United Arab Emirates
Countries in italics did not report for 2003
Report on marine insurance premiums - by economic areas
(USD Millions)
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Accounting Year
Europe
Asia/Pacific
NorthAmerica
Rest of theWorld
A major part of the increase in European volume is due to a weakening of the US$ against European currencies and thus not a real volume increase.
Global Marine Premium 1992 - 2003 (USD Million), as reported
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Accounting Year
Dotted lines show estimated increase without exchange rate impact.
Total
Cargo
Hull
EnergyLiability
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Accounting Year
FranceItalyJapanNorwaySpainUK (ILU/IUA)UK (Lloyd's)USA
Global Hull Premium - Major Markets 1992 - 2003 (USD Million)
Global Cargo Premium - Major Markets 1992 - 2003 (USD Million)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Accounting Year
Belgium
China
France
Germany
Italy
Japan
Netherlands
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
UK (ILU/IUA)
UK (Lloyd's)
USA
MARINE MUTUAL MARKET SECTORGross Calls (Premium) – Operational location
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Accounting Year
Japan
Norway
Sweden
UK
US
Per accounting year – USD Million
Source: Standard & Poors Marine Mutual Report 2004
Ultimate calculation based on figures of 6 Member Organisations – France, Germany, Italy, Norway, UK Lloyds, UK IUA (5 for 1996 – No Germany)
Marine Hull – Evolution of Gross Premium and Paid Claims Actual and estimated towards ultimate, U/W Year 1996 to 2003
(USD)
end of 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 ultimate0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1996 underwriting year
end of 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 ultimate0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1997 underwriting year
end of 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 ultimate0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1998 underwriting year
2000 underwriting year
end of 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 ultimate0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
USD
end of 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 ultimate0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1999 underwriting yearUSD USD
USD
USD
2000 underwriting year
end of 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 ultimate0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
USD 2002 underwriting year
end of 2001 2002 2002 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 ultimate0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
USD 2001 underwriting year
end of 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 ultimate0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
USD 2003 underwriting year
Blue line = Gross Premium; Red line = Paid Claims
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96
Ultim
ate
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
70%
2003
Ultimate calculation based on figures of 6 Member Organisations: France, Germany, Italy, Norway, UK Lloyds, UK IUA (5 for 1996 – No Germany)
Marine Hull – Evolution of Gross Loss Ratio, actual and estimated towards ultimate
U/W Year 1996 to 2003 Assuming a
30% expense ratio
(acquisition and
management expenses),
technical break even is
achieved when the gross loss ratio does not exceed 70%
1999
1998
2000/ 2002
1997 / 20012003
1996
Transport / Cargo – Evolution of Gross Premium and Paid Claims
Actual and estimated towards ultimate, U/W Year 1996 to 2003 (USD)
Totals of 7 Member Organisations – Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, UK Lloyds, UK IUA (6 for 1996 – no Germany)
Blue line = Gross premiumRed line = Paid claims
Blue line = Gross premiumRed line = Paid claims
end of 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 ultimate0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
1996 underwriting year
end of 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 ultimate0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
1997 underwriting year
end of 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 ultimate0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
1998 underwriting yearUSD USD USD
end of 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 ultimate0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
1999 underwriting yearUSD
end of 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 ultimate0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
USD 2000 underwriting year 2001 underwriting year
end of 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 ultimate0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
USD 2001 underwriting year
end of 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 ultimate0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
USD 2002 underwriting year
end of 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 ultimate0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
USD 2003 underwriting year
Blue line = Gross Premium; Red line = Paid Claims
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96
Ultim
ate
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
70%
2003
Ultimate calculation based on totals of 7 Member Organisations – Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, UK Lloyds, UK IUA (6 for 1996 – no Germany)
Transport/Cargo – Evolution of Gross Loss Ratio, actual and estimated towards ultimate
U/W Year 1996 to 2003 Assuming a
30% expense ratio
(acquisition and
management expenses),
technical break even is
achieved when the gross loss ratio does not exceed 70%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Marine Hull
Cargo/Transport
Marine Hull and Cargo/TransportGross Ultimate Loss Ratio
U/W Year 1996 to 2003 Assuming a
30% expense ratio
(acquisition and
management expenses),
technical break even is
achieved when the gross loss ratio does not exceed 70%