Global Marine Insurance Report 2019 - IUMI...2019/08/22 · Global Marine Insurance Report 2019...
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Global Marine Insurance Report 2019 Astrid Seltmann Analyst/Actuary @ Cefor Vice chair, IUMI Facts & Figures Committee
Transcript of Global Marine Insurance Report 2019 - IUMI...2019/08/22 · Global Marine Insurance Report 2019...
Global Marine Insurance Report 2019Astrid Seltmann
Analyst/Actuary @ Cefor
Vice chair, IUMI Facts & Figures Committee
Contents:
Global marine insurance market
P&I
Offshore energy
Cargo
Hull
----------------------------------
DetentionsFires on container vessels
3
Please note & Disclaimer
Figures reflect the 2019 state of reporting and will change retrospectively. Some figures are estimates.
For comparison of years, compare the updated premiums and loss ratio! (download from www.iumi.com )
All information given is of informational and non-binding character.
Figures related to the marine market’s performance reflect market averages. They do not disclose single company’ or local markets’ results. As with all averages, individual underwriting units may out- or underperform compared to the average.
IUMI’s aim is to provide information as available and raise consciousness for the importance of a fact-based evaluation of the risk exposure covered – and inspire everyone to do their own critical evaluation of real and seeming facts.
Global marine insurance market
P&I
Offshore energy
Cargo
Hull
----------------------------------
DetentionsFires on Container vessels
24.4%
57.4%
6.7%
11.6%
2018
Global Hull
Transport/Cargo
Marine Liability
Offshore/Energy
Marine Premiums 2018by line of business
Total estimate 2018: 28.9 USD billion / Change 2017 to 2018: +1%
NB: Exchange rate effects!
5
(other than IGPI)
Premium shares 2015-18
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
2018201720162015
Transport/Cargo
Hull
Offshore/Energy
MarineLiability
Share of cargo
premium increased.
Combination of
various effects.
Increase in world
trade volume,
market conditions
and exchange rate
influences.
46.4%
30.7%
10.4%
6.2%6.3%
2018Europe
Asia/Pacific
Latin America
North America
Other
Total: 28.9 USD billion
Marine Premiums 2018by region
7
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
16,000,000
18,000,000
20,000,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Europe
Asia/Pacific
Latin America
North America
Middle East
Africa
Premium by region 2010-18Data as of 2019
8
2012: UK-IUA
New data survey
2018: 28.9 USD bill.
2017: 28.6 USD bill.
Europe share decreasing –
Asia increasing.
Various influences. Market
conditions, exchange
rates. In 2017, a number
of currencies strengthened
against USD after some
years of a strong USD.
50%
70%
90%
110%
130%
150%
170%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
CNY (China)
JPY (Japan)
EUR (Euro)
NOK (Norway)
GBP (UK)
BRL (Brazil)
USD Exchange rates 2005-18Index 2000=100%, against selected currencies, as of Dec. each year (2019 as of July)
9
After years with strong USD,
from 2016 most currencies
strengthen somewhat again.
USD premium
amounts in this
report influenced by
exchange rates!
Premium trends
may be different in
local currency,
especially for cargo.
Global marine insurance market
P&I
Offshore energy
Cargo
Hull
----------------------------------
DetentionsFires on Container vessels
62%
30%
6% 2%
UK
Nordic
Japan
US
Calls 2018:UK: 1.85 Nordic: 0.87Japan: 0.19US: 0.07Total: 3.00 (USD billion)
P&I International Group – Income Gross Calls (premium) 2018 – Operational location
(- 3.7%)11
(- 3.6%)
(- 3.5%)
(- 5.8%)
(- 4.5%)
Source: International Group of P&I Clubs
P&I premiums down for 4th year in a row
47%
18%
15%
12%
6% 2%
BermudaUKLuxembourgNordicJapanUSby country of registration
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Tota
l Cla
im (
US$
mil
lio
ns)
Nu
mb
er
of
Cla
ims
Pool Claims by Policy Year
Total claim on Pool Total claim on ELR Number of claims
P&I – Pool claims by policy yearSource: International Group of P&I Clubs, Graph updated 22 Aug. 2019
12
End 2018/ 1Q 2019:
A number of severe
casualties end period
of low major claims
impact.
Not yet fully reported.
P&I is a complex
business with high
liabilities!
More information at
www.igpandi.org
Global marine insurance market
P&I
Offshore energy
Cargo
Hull
----------------------------------
DetentionsFires on Container vessels
UK (Lloyds), 44.5%
UK (IUA), 18.7%Mexico, 8.4%
Malaysia, 3.0%
Brazil, 5.9%
Japan, 3.8%
Nordic, 2.4%
Italy, 2.6% Nigeria, 1.8%
Egypt, 1.7%
India, 2.1%USA, 0.7%
Other, 4.5%
2018
Offshore Energy Premiums 2018
Total estimated: 3.4 USD billion / Change 2017 to 2018: -3%
14Kazakhstan and some other countries: no data available.
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,00020
12
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Other
USA
India
Egypt
Nigeria
Italy
Nordic
Japan
Brazil
Malaysia
Mexico
UK-IUA (2012)
UK-Lloyds
Willis estimated upstream
premium (ajdusted retrospectively)
Offshore Energy Premium 2012–18
Kazakhstan and some other countries: no data available. 15
IUMI: Premiums reported by associations. Some double-reporting due to global nature of business.
=> Overestimation of global premium.
Willis approach: Lloyds premium triangulation (risk codes EC, EN, EM, EY, EZ). Grossed up to 100% by assuming Lloyd’s represents 70%.
=> Underestimation of global premium
Strong decrease from 2014, now flattening out.
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
350%
400%2
005
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
Average Day Rates
Global Offshore Energy
Premium
Oil price, Brent Crude
No. Contracted Rigs
Offshore energy premiumEnergy mobiles, day rates, oil price (as of Aug. 2019)
16
Premium adjusted backwards for
previously not reported data.
Drop in oil price
was followed by
drop in premium.
Sources: Average Day Rates, No. Contracted Rigs: Clarksons Research, Oil Price: World Bank commodity price data, Premiums: IUMI
2019: Activity
increases,
but slowly.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Upstream losses excessUS$1m
estimated worldwideUpstream premium (US$)
WELD Upstream Energy losses versus estimated upstream premiumLosses > USD 1 million, 2000-2018. Source & Graph: Willis Towers Watson.
17
2005
Katrina & Rita
2008
Ike
2004
Ivan
Hurricane impact reduced
in recent years. 2017
hurricanes had modest
impact on offshore energy.
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
350%1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
outstanding
paid 10th year
paid 9th year
paid 8th year
paid 7th year
paid 6th year
paid 5th year
paid 4th year
paid 3rd year
paid 2nd year
paid 1st year
2005
Katrina & Rita
2004
Ivan
2008
Ike
2009-16 no major
hurricane activity;
2017/18 hurricanes
modest impact. 2019?
Offshore Energy Gross Loss RatiosUnderwriting years 1996-2018 / incl. liability / data from UK, Nordic, some US/ as of Dec. 2018
18
Youngest
underwriting years
still develop, will
deteriorate over time.
Offshore Energy Key points
• Strong drop in premiums followed oil price reduction, but flattening out.
• High-profile losses of recent years little impact on market.
• Weather impact reduced since 2009. Hurricanes back in 2017 & 2018, but littleimpact. 2019?
• Oil price recovering since 2016, with some variation. Uncertain future (trade war).
• Downturn in activity started to reverse, but slowly. Historically 18 months time lag between improved oil price and authorisation for expenditure.
• More risk retained -> Mismatch between capacity and insurable objects.
• Risks and claims potential arising from unit reactivation an issue.
19
Global marine insurance market
P&I
Offshore energy
Cargo
Hull
----------------------------------
DetentionsFires on Container vessels
39.6%
33.2%
12.0%
6.4%5.8% 3.1%
2018
Europe
Asia/Pacific
Latin America
North America
Middle East
Africa
Cargo Premiums 2018 – by region
Total estimate: 16.6 USD billion / Change 2017 to 2018: +2.5%Exchange rate effects strongest on cargo premium.
21
Belgium1.7%
Brazil5.2%
China10.6%
France4.6%
Germany7.2%
India2.1%
Italy2.5%
Japan9.2%Mexico
2.7%Netherlands1.5%
Nordic1.2%
Russia1.8%
Singapore2.8%
Spain1.4%
UK (IUA)3.6%
UK (Lloyds)8.0%
USA5.8%
Other28.1%
2018
Cargo Premium 2018 – by markets
Total estimate: 16.6 USD billion
22
Cargo Premium 2010-18Selected markets
2014-15: strong USD «reduces» income of most
countries. Difficult to identify real market development.
From 2017 several currencies strengthened against USD.
23
2017/2018:
Adverse developments.
Growth in some regions,
stagnation or drop in
others.
Various influences.
Upswing in trade,
exchange rates, other
market conditions.
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
200%20
05
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
World Trade Values(Goods)
World Trade Volume(Goods)
Global Cargo Premium
Cargo Premium versus World Trade Values & Volume
24
Index of evolution, 2005=100%
Evolution of world trade
values and cargo premium
seem to correspond,
but cargo premium lacks
behind world trade values
growth.
Exchange rate influences
on premium.
Extended risk covers and
the increasing risk of event
losses (risk accumulation)
need to be taken into
account in pricing.
Premium adjusted backwards for
previously not reported data.
Cargo - Loss ratios
Cod is great!
Foto: Astrid Seltmann
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1 2 3 4 5
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2014, 2015, 2016:
Each year extraordinary increase in
loss ratios. Change in typical pattern.
The new normal?
2018 starts at near 70%.
With a ‘normal’ pattern (grey lines),
2018 would end around 70%.
With recent pattern,
2018 may end near or above 80%.
26*Technical break even: gross loss ratio does not exceed 100% minus the expense ratio (acquisition cost, capital cost, management expenses)
**Data included from: Belgium, France, Germany, Netherlands, Italy, UK, USA
Gross* loss ratios Cargo Europe (& partly US) **Underwriting years 2010 to 2018, as reported at 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 years, Gross premiums, paid+outstanding claims
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
reported IBNR Estimate (10 year pattern)
* Technical break even: gross loss ratio does not
exceed 100% minus the expense ratio (acquisition
cost, capital cost, management expenses)
**Data included from: Belgium, France, Germany,
Netherlands, Italy, Spain (until 2007), UK, some US
data
Ultimate Gross* loss ratiosCargo Europe (& partly US)** Underwriting years 2005 to 2018, gross premiums, paid+outstanding claims
27
Recent years strong impact by
outlier & Nat-cat event losses:
2015: Tianjin port explosions
2016: Hanjin, Amos-6 satellite
2017: Hurricanes / Nat Cat
2018: Mærsk Honam / Hurricanes(2017/18 little US data: loss ratios may not
reflect full hurricane impact)
Affect more than one uw year.
Increasing expenses a concern.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
-
500,000,000
1,000,000,000
1,500,000,000
2,000,000,000
2,500,000,000
3,000,000,000
3,500,000,000
4,000,000,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Gross premiums Paid claims Paid loss ratio
Gross loss ratios accounting yearCargo Asia*, Gross premiums, paid claims
28
Stable 40-45% until 2014.
From 2015 loss ratios
increasing.
Probable impact by Tianjin
port explosions & Nat Cat.
* China, Japan, Hong Kong
Singapore not included, because
only incurred (paid+outstanding)
claims figures available, for other
countries only ‘paid’.
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
-
500,000,000
1,000,000,000
1,500,000,000
2,000,000,000
2,500,000,000
3,000,000,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Gross premiums Paid claims Paid loss ratio
Gross loss ratios accounting yearCargo Latin America*, Gross premiums, paid claims
29
Stable around average 50-55%.
Peak in 2015 related to major
claim impact in one country.
*Figures included from:
Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia,
Costa Rica (from 2010), D. Republic (from 17),
Ecuador, El Salvador (from 14), Guatemala,
Honduras, Mexico, Panama, Paraguay (from 14),
Peru, Venezuela (until 14).
Cargo Key points
• 2014-2016: Strong impact from large event losses (Nat Cat and outlier losses), but also attritional losses on the rise.
• 2017/18: NatCat impact (Hurricanes, Mexico earthquake, Bangladesh flooding & other Nat Cat), 2018 Mærsk Honam.
• Risk of large event losses (Nat Cat and man-made) substantially increased. Increasing value accumulation on single sites/vessels .
• Fires on container vessels in cargo area an increasing concern (1Q 2019).
• Covered risks represent increasingly stock exposure rather than transit exposure.
• Trade growth accelerating, but change in economical and political frame conditions and ongoing trade war makes prognoses uncertain.
• USD premium influenced by combination of market conditions and exchange rates.
• Market trends and results can differ substantially by region/unit.30
Global marine insurance market
P&I
Offshore energy
Cargo
Hull
----------------------------------
DetentionsFires on Container vessels
45.4%
41.3%
5.8%4.2%
2.5%
0.9%2018
Europe
Asia/Pacific
Latin America
North America
Middle East
Africa
Hull Premium 2018 – by region
Total estimate: 7.0 USD billion / Change 2017 to 2018: 0% (but world fleet continued to grow)
32
China10.9%
France3.8%
Italy3.7%
Japan
7.9%
Korea, Republic2.4%
Netherlands2.0%
Nordic9.9%
Singapore13.0%
Spain1.6%
UK (IUA)5.4%
UK (Lloyds)13.9%
USA3.5%
Latin America5.8%
Other16.1%
2018
Hull Premium 2018 – by markets
33
Total estimate 2018: USD 7.0 billion
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
UK (Lloyds)
Singapore
China
Nordic
Japan
UK (IUA)
Latin America
Korea, Republic of
34
Hull Premium 2010-18Selected markets
Hull – Portfolio trends
35Foto: Astrid Seltmann
Oslo Riviera –
Swimming
with the
whales…
Source gross ton: Lloyds List Intelligence, World Fleet Update
Average gross ton, age & vessel valuesIndex, 2005 = 100%
36
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
140%2
005
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
Index Average Sum Insured Index Average gross ton Index age
NoMSNordic Marine
Insurance
Statistics
From 2014 increasing
gap between average
vessel sizes and
insured values.
Average vessel age
increasing due to
aging of world fleet
(less newbuilds).
50%
75%
100%
125%
150%
175%
200%
225%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Gross tonnage(> 300 GT)
No. Ships (> 300 GT)
Global Marine HullPremium
Av. insured vesselvalue (Renewals &newbuilds - Cefor)
Premium adjusted backwards for
previously not reported data.
Sources: No. ships/tonnage: IHS/ISL, Insured vessel values: Nordic Marine Insurance Statistics
Hull Premium versus World Fleet Index of evolution, 2005 = 100%
World fleet continues to
grow, especially in tonnage.
Hull premium deteriorated
in line with ship values.
Increasing mismatch
between fleet/vessel
growth and income.
2019 signs of change, enough to reestablishbalance?
37
Hull – Claims trends
38
Beware of
hidden risks!
Foto: Astrid Seltmann
0.00%
0.05%
0.10%
0.15%
0.20%
0.25%
0.30%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
35.00%1
996
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
partial claims <75% SI (left axis) TLO claims >75% SI (right axis)
NoMISNordic Marine
Insurance
Statistics
Claims frequency
39
Claims frequency (all claims)
Long-term downward trend,
stabilizing around 22%.
Some increase in 2019, but
not exceeding this level.
Total losses
Long-term positive trend.
Stabilizing at low level
0.05% - 0.1%.
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,0001
996
19
971
998
19
992
000
20
012
002
20
032
004
20
052
006
20
072
008
20
092
010
20
112
012
20
132
014
20
152
016
20
172
018
20
19
> 50 MUSD
30 <= 50 MUSD
10 <= 30 MUSD
5 <= 10 MUSD
1 <= 5 MUSD
<= 1 MUSD
IBNR
NoMISNordic Marine
Insurance
Statistics
Claim cost per vessel* in bands of claim cost, by accident year, in USD
40
Major losses
• Unusually few 2016-18,
return in 2019 (H&M).
• Increasing volatility by (non-)
occurrence of costly losses.
• Increasing risk of major
losses with unprecedented
cost (increasing vessel sizes,
risk accumulation, new risks
& trading areas).
Claims < USD 10 million
Cost per vessel quite stable in
recent years.
For more H&M hull trends checkhttps://cefor.no/statistics/nomis/
* Figures do include total losses and represent H&M insurance. Builder’s risk not included (i.e. 2018 Lürssen fire)
Hull – Loss ratios
41
Strange statistical correlation?
Increasing number of underwriters
closing their marine book (?)
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1 2 3 4 5
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2016: unusual
increase 2nd year
* Technical break even: gross loss ratio does not exceed 100% minus the expense ratio (acquisition cost, capital cost, management expenses)
** Data included from: Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Nordic (Cefor), UK, USA
42
2014 & 16:
What actuaries hate:
Deviate from typical pattern.
Unusual increase in severity.
2016 to 2018:
Few major losses, but in some
markets strong impact by 2017
hurricane yacht damage.
Attritional losses increasingly
eroded hull premium (after a
constant decrease in premiums
relative to the risk, see p. 37).
Gross* loss ratiosHull Europe** (& partly US)Underwriting years 2010 to 2017, as reported at 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 years, gross premiums, paid+outstanding claims
2014: impact from 2018
major claims (Lürssen fire)
on long term policies
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%2
005
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
reported IBNR estimate (based on 10-year pattern)
*Technical break even: gross loss ratio does not exceed 100% minus the expense ratio (acquisition cost, capital cost, management expenses)
** Data included from: Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Nordic (Cefor), Spain (until 2007), UK, some US data
43
2014-18: Unsustainable level.
Overcapacity, dropping vessel
values and reduced activity
influenced income negatively.
Yacht damage (hurricanes)
impacted 2016/17.
Few major claims, but attritional
losses erode (reduced) income.
What to expect for 2019 ?
• Income recovering
(from unsustainable level!)
• Major losses return (cost).
• Result = ?
Ultimate Gross* loss ratiosHull Europe** (& some US)Underwriting years 2005 to 2018, gross premiums, paid+outstanding claims
2014 deteriorated
from 75% to 95% due
to 2018 major loss
impact (Lürssen fire)
2016 deteriorated
from 88% to 100%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
-
500,000,000
1,000,000,000
1,500,000,000
2,000,000,000
2,500,000,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Gross premiums Paid claims Loss ratio - paid claims
44
Gross loss ratios accounting yearHull Asia*, Gross premiums, paid claims
* China, Japan, Hong Kong
Singapore not included, because
only incurred (paid+outstanding)
claims figures available, for other
countries only ‘paid’.
Loss ratios increase 2015-17.
Stable annual claims cost
opposed to income reduction.
Some relation to previous
portfolio growth possible
(accounting year: claims
attaching to uw year paid over
several acc.).
45
Gross loss ratios accounting yearHull Latin America*, Gross premiums, paid claims
*Figures in graph include:
Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile
(from 2012), Colombia, Costa Rica
(from 10), D. Republic (from 17),
Ecuador, Guatemala, Honduras
(08-16), Mexico (from 12),
Panama (from 10), Paraguay (14-
16), Peru, Venezuela (until 14).
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
-
50,000,000
100,000,000
150,000,000
200,000,000
250,000,000
300,000,000
350,000,000
400,000,000
450,000,000
500,000,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Gross premiums Paid claims Paid loss ratio
NB: includes data
from more countries
compared to 2018
presentation.
Hull Key points
Exposure
• Until 2018 increasing gap between fleet & vessel size as opposed to vessel values & income.
• Higher single-risk exposure (with inherent risk of unprecedented major claims).
Claims (other than yachts)
• Claims frequency and cost per vessel: Stable at moderate level.
• Total losses: long-term downward trend. Came to a halt with fluctuation below 0.1%.
• Major losses: • Return in 2019 after unusually little impact 2016-2018 (except 2018 Lürssen fire impact on builder’s risk).
• Higher volatility steered by their (non-) occurrence.
Results
• 2016-18: Few major claims, attritional losses represented an increasing share of the total cost.
• 2014-18 impacted by special events (2017 hurricane yacht damage, single casualties in 2018/2019 attaching to previous year’s policies).
• Income did not suffice to cover expected cost (attritional losses), no buffer for major losses.
• 2019 sees rising premiums, but also return of major losses. 46
A simple equation - Repetition
Loss ratio = Claims cost (C) / Premium (P)
Risk premium = Expected claims cost (for partial and major losses).
Premium (P+) = Risk premium + Loading for expenses + Profit margin
Situation in 2019
• Major claims impact ‘back to normal’ after three years of little impact.
• Hull premiums rising (but from unsustainable level!)
• Combined impact on results = ? 47
Major
claims+Attritional
losses
P+
Global marine insurance market
P&I
Offshore energy
Cargo
Hull
----------------------------------
DetentionsFires on Container vessels
Detentions – Indicator of casualties
49Foto: Astrid Seltmann
Claims frequency & cost of vessels with/without detentions prior to casualty
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
<= 5 years 5-10 years 10-15 years15-20 years > 20 years
Vessels without detentions Vessels with detentions
Claims frequency (all claims)
0.00%
0.10%
0.20%
0.30%
0.40%
0.50%
0.60%
0.70%
<= 5 years 5-10 years 10-15 years 15-20 years > 20 years
Vessels without detentions Vessels with detentions
Total loss frequency
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
<= 5 years 5-10 years 10-15 years15-20 years > 20 years
Vessels without detentions Vessels with detentions
Claim cost per vessel
Claims frequency: Higher for vessels with detentions in a 3-year period prior to a casualty, across all age groups.Total loss frequency, Claim cost per vessel: Higher for vessels with detentions except newbuilds. Gap increases with age.
Source: see complete detention analysis at https://cefor.no/statistics/analysis-with-special-focus/
Fires on Container vessels
51
Only the
evening sky
on fire here!
Foto: Astrid Seltmann
0.00%
0.20%
0.40%
0.60%
0.80%
1.00%
1.20%
1.40%
1.60%
1.80%
1-3
4-6
7-9
10-1
21-
34-
67-
910
-12
1-3
4-6
7-9
10-1
21-
34-
67-
910
-12
1-3
4-6
7-9
10-1
21-
34-
67-
910
-12
1-3
4-6
7-9
10-1
21-
34-
67-
910
-12
1-3
4-6
7-9
10-1
21-
34-
67-
910
-12
1-3
4-6
7-9
10-1
21-
34-
67-
910
-12
1-3
4-6
7-9
10-1
21-
34-
67-
910
-12
1-3
4-6
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Fires on container vessels* –Numbers & Frequency (by quarter, NoMIS database)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1-3
4-6
7-9
10-1
21-
34-
67-
910
-12
1-3
4-6
7-9
10-1
21-
34-
67-
910
-12
1-3
4-6
7-9
10-1
21-
34-
67-
910
-12
1-3
4-6
7-9
10-1
21-
34-
67-
910
-12
1-3
4-6
7-9
10-1
21-
34-
67-
910
-12
1-3
4-6
7-9
10-1
21-
34-
67-
910
-12
1-3
4-6
7-9
10-1
21-
34-
67-
910
-12
1-3
4-6
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Vessels > 100,000 gross ton
Vessels < 100,000 gross ton
* Including RoRo
with container
carrying capacity
NoMISNordic Marine
Insurance
Statistics
Increasing
number of
fires on large
container
vessels.
Fire fighting
challenging
when fire
starts in
cargo area.
0.00%
0.20%
0.40%
0.60%
0.80%
1.00%
1.20%
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Fire frequency on container* vessels
Frequency – all fire/explosion claims
Frequency – Fires starting in cargo area**All sizes
Frequency – Fires starting in cargo area* Vessels > 50,000 gt
0.00%
0.20%
0.40%
0.60%
0.80%
1.00%
1.20%
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
0.00%
0.20%
0.40%
0.60%
0.80%
1.00%
1.20%
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
** by linking NoMIS data to vessels specified in
https://iumi.com/news/news/iumi-presentation-at-imo-maritime-safety-committee_1559731776
About one third of these claims could be identified in the Cefor NoMIS database.
NoMISNordic Marine
Insurance
Statistics
* Including RoRo with container carrying capacity
Source: https://cefor.no/statistics/analysis-with-special-focus/
• Trade growth accelerating, but political and economic uncertainty prevails.
• Cargo results impacted by recent years’ unprecedented event losses (man-made & Nat-cat).
• Climate change / Nat-Cat losses /(unknown) accumulation (on land and at sea) / new risks.
• End 2018/1Q 2019 major loss incidents end period of benign claims impact in several lines.
• Offshore market starts to recover, but slowly. Risks following reactivation of units an issue.
• Hull: Bottom may be reached and premiums on the rise, but major losses also back.
• For sustainability balance necessary between income and expected cost (for attritional + major losses + expenses).
• Detentions are an indicator of the potential risk of future claims.
• Fires on container vessels starting in cargo area a concern.
54
Take-away points
Issues to monitor
High-value risks
Arctic risks
Dagfinn Bakke, Foto by Astrid Seltmann
© Astrid Seltmann
© Astrid Seltmann
Navigation
Oil price, fuel quality
New technology
Climate change
Changes in regulation (liabilities)
Human factor/
Qualification
Dagfinn Bakke. Foto by Astrid Seltmann)
Value accumulation
Cyber risk
Fire on RoRo & Container vessels
Internet of things/complex technologies
Thank you!
ASTRID SELTMANN
Analyst/ActuaryThe Nordic Association of Marine Insurers (Cefor)[email protected]
Foto: Astrid Seltmann
