Global Marine Insurance Report 2006 Facts & Figures Committee Astrid Seltmann Analyst/Actuary
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Global Marine Insurance Report 2006 Facts & Figures Committee Astrid Seltmann Analyst/Actuary The Central Union of Marine Underwriters, Oslo, Norway Thanks also to F&F Committee Members Pamela Frood and Cédric Charpentier. Report on marine insurance premiums 2004 and 2005. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Global Marine Insurance Report 2006 Facts & Figures Committee Astrid Seltmann Analyst/Actuary
Global Marine Insurance Report 2006 Facts & Figures CommitteeFacts & Figures Committee
Astrid SeltmannAnalyst/Actuary
The Central Union of Marine Underwriters, Oslo, Norway
Thanks also to
F&F Committee Members Pamela Frood and Cédric Charpentier
Report on marine insurance premiums 2004 and 2005
• By end of August 2006, 47 of 54 members reported their country’s marine premium figures for accounting years 2004 and 2005.
• Reported figures represent approx. 97% of the total marine premium written by all IUMI members in 2004 and 2005.
• Total premium for both 2004 and 2005 is therefore estimated to reach approx. USD 17.8 billion*. (excluding P&I from mutual P&I Clubs).
* Strong exchange rate effects on premium volume, see explanations in presentation.
World Merchant Fleet and Global Marine Hull & Liability Premium
Index of evolution, vessels > 100 GT, 1995 = 100%
Source: Indicators for World Fleet from ISL Bremen
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
125%
150%
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
No. Ships
Gross tonnage
Global Marine Hull &Liab. Premium
World Seaborne Trade Volume and Global Cargo Premium
Index of evolution, 1995 = 100%
Source: Indicators for World Trade Volume from ISL Bremen
50%
75%
100%
125%
150%
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Total World TradeVolume
Global CargoPremium
A major part of the increase 2001-2004 and decrease 2004-2005 is due to change in exchange rate against USD!(Cargo mostly written in local currency)
Index of evolution of Exchange rates between US$ and selected currencies
(as of December each year)
Source: Norges Bank Exchange Rates Statistics
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
140%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
EUR
GBP
JPY
NOK
Weaker USD
Stronger USD
Global premiums reported 2001 to 2005 (accounting years)
0 5000 10000 15000 20000
USD (millions)
Total
Offshore / Energy
Marine Liability
Transport / Cargo
Global Hull 20052004200320022001
Increase 01-04 partly due to weakening of USD against major European and Asian currencies.
Stagnation 05 due to strengthening of USD against major European and Asian currencies.
Market Shares 2005
24.5%
12.4%2.1%
61.0%
EuropeAsia/PacificNorth AmericaRest of World
Europe : Albania, Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom (IUA + Lloyds)Asia/Pacific : Australia, Chinese Taipei, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, North Korea, South Korea, Malaysia, New Zealand, SingaporeNorth America : Bermuda, Canada, USARest of the World : Congo, Egypt, Israel, Kenya, Lebanon, Mexico, Morocco, Nigeria, South Africa,Tunisia, United Arab Emirates
Countries in italics did not report in 2006
Report on marine insurance premiums – by economic areas
(USD Millions)
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Accounting Year
Europe
Asia/Pacific
NorthAmerica
Rest of theWorld
Europe, Asia: Exchange rate effects due to weakening/strengthening of USD
Global Marine Premium 1999 - 2005 (USD Million), as reported
020004000
60008000
100001200014000
160001800020000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Accounting Year
Total
Cargo
Hull
EnergyLiability
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Accounting Year
FranceItalyJapanNorwaySpainUK (ILU/IUA)UK (Lloyd's)USA
Global Hull PremiumMajor Markets, 1999 - 2005 (USD Million)
From 2004 building risk is officially included in figures.
Global Cargo PremiumMajor Markets, 1999 - 2005 (USD Million)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Accounting Year
BelgiumChinese Taipei FranceGermany
ItalyJ apanNetherlandsSpainSwedenSwitzerland
UK (ILU/IUA)UK (Lloyd's)USA
Europe/Asia: exchange rate effects.
MARINE MUTUAL MARKET SECTORGross Calls (Premium) – Operational location
0200400600800
10001200140016001800
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Accounting Year
J apan
Norway
Sweden
UK
US
Per accounting year – USD Million
Source: Standard & Poors Marine Mutual Report 2006
Marine Hull – Evolution of Paid and Total Claims and Gross Premiums
as reported, U/W Year 1998 to 2005 (USD)
Totals of 5 IUMI members – France, Germany, Italy, Norway, UK Lloyds
Blue line = Gross Premium; Red line = Paid Claims, Yellow line = Paid+Outstanding claims
end of 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 20060
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1998 underwriting year 2000 underwriting year
end of 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 20080
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
end of 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 20070
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1999 underwriting yearU SD USDU SD 2000 underwriting year
end of 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
U SD 2002 underwriting year
end of 2001 2002 2002 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
USD 2001 underwriting year
end of 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
U SD 2003 underwriting year
end of 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
U SD 2004 underwriting year
end of 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
U SD 2005 underwriting year
Ultimate calculation based on figures of 6 IUMI members – France, Germany, Italy, Norway, UK Lloyds, UK IUA
Marine Hull – Evolution of Gross Premium and Paid Claims
Actual and estimated towards ultimate, U/W Year 1998 to 2005 (USD)
Blue line = Gross Premium; Red line = Paid Claims
end of 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 ult0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1998 underwriting year 2000 underwriting year
end of 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 ult0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
end of 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 ult0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1999 underwriting yearU SD USDU SD 2000 underwriting year
end of 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 ult0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
U SD 2002 underwriting year
end of 2001 2002 2002 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 ult0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
USD 2001 underwriting year
end of 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 ult0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
U SD 2003 underwriting year
end of 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 ult0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
U SD 2004 underwriting year
end of 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 ult0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
U SD 2005 underwriting year
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108
120
Ultim
ate
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
70%
2003
2004
2005
Ultimate calculation based on figures of 6 IUMI members: France, Germany, Italy, Norway, UK Lloyds, UK IUA (5 for 1996 – no Germany)
Marine Hull – Evolution of Gross Loss Ratio, actual and estimated towards ultimate
U/W Year 1996 to 2005 Assuming a
30% expense ratio
(acquisition and
management expenses),
technical break even is
achieved when the gross loss ratio does not exceed 70%
1999
1998
2000
2002
1997 / 2001
2004
19962003/2005
Transport/Cargo – Paid and Total Claims and Gross Premiums
as reported, U/W Year 1998 to 2005 (USD)
Totals of 6 IUMI members – Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, UK Lloyds
Blue line = Gross Premium; Red line = Paid Claims, Yellow line = Paid+Outstanding claims
end of 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500USD 2003 underwriting year
end of 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 20060
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1998 underwriting yearUSD
end of 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 20070
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1999 underwriting yearUSD
end of 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 20080
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
USD 2000 underwriting year 2001 underwriting year
end of 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500USD 2001 underwriting year
end of 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500USD 2002 underwriting year
end of 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2004 underwriting year
end of 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 ult0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2005 underwriting year
Transport / Cargo – Evolution of Gross Premium and Paid ClaimsActual and estimated towards ultimate, U/W Year 1998 to 2005 (USD)
Totals of 7 IUMI members – Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, UK Lloyds, UK IUA
Blue line = Gross Premium; Red line = Paid Claims
end of 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 ult0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
USD 2003 underwriting year
end of 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 ult0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
1998 underwriting yearUSD
end of 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 ult0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
1999 underwriting yearUSD
end of 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 ult0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
USD 2000 underwriting year 2001 underwriting year
end of 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 ult0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000USD 2001 underwriting year
end of 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 ult0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
USD 2002 underwriting year
end of 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 ult0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
USD 2004 underwriting year
end of 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 ult0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
USD 2005 underwriting year
Decrease due to exchange rate effects. Figures in original currencies would not have shown a decrease.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108
120
Ultim
ate
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
70%
2003
2004
2005
Ultimate calculation based on totals of 7 IUMI members – Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, UK Lloyds, UK IUA (6 for 1996 – no Germany)
Transport/Cargo – Evolution of Gross Loss Ratio, actual and estimated towards ultimate
U/W Year 1996 to 2005 Assuming a
30% expense ratio
(acquisition and
management expenses),
technical break even is
achieved when the gross loss ratio does not exceed 70%
1999/200019981997
20011996
2002/2004/20052003
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Marine Hull
Cargo/Transport
Marine Hull and Cargo/TransportGross Ultimate Loss Ratio
U/W Year 1996 to 2005 Assuming a
30% expense ratio
(acquisition and
management expenses),
technical break even is
achieved when the gross loss ratio does not exceed 70%
