Post on 06-May-2015
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Transport Panel27th March 2008
Peak OilWill the rate of global oil production start to decline soon?And what might this mean for WA transport planning?Bruce Robinson, Convenor
? ? ? ?
Look out !! Something serious is looming on the radar
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Hurricane Katrina New Orleans
US Federal, State and local Governments were shown to be shortsighted, ill-prepared, uncaring and disorganised.
Australian governments are much less organised for Peak Oil
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www.ASPO-Australia.org.auAn Australia-wide network of professionals working to reduce oil vulnerability
Working groupsFinance SectorHealth Sector Social Services SectorRemote indigenous communitiesActive transport (bicycle & walking)Agriculture, Fisheries and FoodBiofuels Urban and transport planning Oil & Gas industryRegional and city working groupsConstruction IndustryPublic transport sectorDefence and Security EconomicsTourism Children and Peak OilYoung Professionals working group
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OutlineWhat is Peak Oil ?the time when global oil production stops rising and starts its final decline
We will never "run out of oil"
●
When is the most probable forecast date ? ? 2012 +/- 5 years
"Peak Exports" is even more important, and sooner
●
Peak Oil will impact very dramatically on transport
●
Options for Australia and Australians
1930 1970 2010 2050
Peak Oilbutwhen?
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Unexpected transport pattern changes,infrastructure & planning decisions
Fremantle Passenger Terminalcompleted 1962
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-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,00061
-62
63-6
465
-66
67-6
869
-70
71-7
273
-74
75-7
677
-78
79-8
081
-82
83-8
4
85-8
687
-88
89-9
091
-92
93-9
495
-96
97-9
899
-00
01-0
2
Passengers p.a. Fremantle Port 1961-2001
Fremantle Passenger Terminal opened
Unexpected transport pattern changes, and infrastructure
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-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,00061
-62
63-6
465
-66
67-6
869
-70
71-7
273
-74
75-7
677
-78
79-8
081
-82
83-8
4
85-8
687
-88
89-9
091
-92
93-9
495
-96
97-9
899
-00
01-0
2
Passengers p.a. Fremantle Port 1961-2001
Fremantle Passenger Terminal opened
Unexpected transport pattern changes, and infrastructure
World Air travel 1950-2001
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Fremantle Passenger Terminal
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0
2
4
6
8
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1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
US Oil Production 1900-2006
(million barrels/day)
mb/d
US oil peak 1970
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Rolf WillkransDirector Environmental Affairs 2005
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Monday October 22 2007
Fig. 7 Oil production world summary
2008
12
0
10
20
30
40
0
10
20
30
4040
10
30
20
01930 1970 2010 2050
IEA 2002
Shell
Bauquis, TotalDeffeyes
ASPO & Skrebowski
Gbpa
0 2007
World Oil Production and Forecasts
2012 +/-
5 years ?
Prof. BauquisFrance
Dr Ali Samsam BakhtiariIran
Chris SkrebowskiUK
Prof. Aleklett, ASPOSweden
Zittel & Schindler, Oct 2007Germany
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"A MIDDLE EAST VIEW OF THE GLOBAL OIL SITUATION"A.M. Samsam BakhtiariNational Iranian Oil CompanyMay 2002
Global oil crunch at the horizon ---
most probably within the present decade.
"...It would take a number of miracles to thwart such a rational
scenario..
A series of simultaneous miracles is not possible --for there are limits even to God Almighty's mercifulness".
“Noah built his ark before it started raining”
www.isv.uu.se/iwood2002
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Dr. Sadad
I. Al Husseini, ex Saudi AramcoOil and Money Conference, London, October 30, 2007
...predicts a 10 year plateaua structural ceiling determined by geology
100
90
70
80
ProductionM b/dayPrice
$/barrel
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•Please put your hand up if you think that we have crossed the Hubbert Peak
•and hands up those who don’t? •Undecided
Eric Eric StreitbergStreitbergExecutive Director Executive Director ARC Energy LimitedARC Energy Limited
Australian Petroleum Production & Exploration Association conference
APPEAApril 2005Perth
•1/3rd
•1/3rd
•1/3rd
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Chris Skrebowski Editor, Petroleum Review, London
The practical realities
• Worry about flows not reserves• "Deliverability"
“It isn't the size of the tank; it’s the size of the tap” (ASPO-USA)
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A simple observation --
or why peak will be earlier than most people expect
‘Global production falls when loss of output from countries in decline exceeds gains in output from those that are expanding.’
Decline
Expansion
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The real oil discovery trendLongwell, 2002
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-4000
-2000
0
2000
4000
6000
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
1000 Barrel/day
UK
Consumption
Export/Import
Quelle: BP Analyse: LBST, ß
Production decline rate ~ 10%UK already a net importer
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-4000
-1500
1000
3500
6000
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
1000 Barrel/day
Indonesia
Consumption
Export
Quelle: BP; Analyse: LBST, ß
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-4000
-2000
0
2000
4000
6000
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
1000 Barrel/day
China
Consumption
Imports
Data: BP. Analyse: Zittel LBST, ß, Pang Xiongqi
2020
Production
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Jeff Rubin September 2007
Canadian Imperial Banking Corporation
Iran 10c/litreVenezuela 2c/l
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from Oilwatch
Monthly: ASPO-Netherlands
Rembrandt Koppelaar
World Liquids Exports estimate to December 2007 “Peak Exports”
occurs before “Peak Oil”
forecastRubin 2007
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0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025
Million barrels/day
Actual Forecast
}$12.5 billion2006/07
P50
Consumption
Production
Australia’s oil production and consumption
Geoscience Australia, APPEA, ABARE
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Perth’s Central Park building is 249 m high, to top of tower
Australia uses 51,000,000,000 litres of oil each yeara cube of about 370 metres size
100 ml of oil contains 1 kWh of energy. Enough to move a small car to the top of the Eiffel tower
80% of Australia’s oil usage is in transportIf Australia’s 20 M tpa
wheat crop → ethanol = ~10%
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Australia China United States
1 kml l
Million barrels/ day 2006 BP Statistical Review, 2007
Australia uses 0.9 China
7.4
US
20.6World
83.7
US 1 cubic km oil / year
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"....there is no coordinated federal strategy for reducing uncertainty about the peak’s timing or mitigating its consequences".
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0 5 10 15
5
0
15
25
Years After Crash Program Initiation
Impact(MM bpd)
20
35EOR
Coal Liquids
Heavy Oil
GTL
Efficient Vehicles
Peaking of World Oil ProductionImpacts, Mitigation and Risk Management
for US DOE NETLHirsch, Bezdek
and Wendling, 2005
2005
Study
"The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem"
"The world has never faced a problem like this. .. oil peaking
will be abrupt and revolutionary".
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Time
Cost of Error
COST AS A FUNCTION OF START TIME (Notional)
Premature Start
Peaking
Scenario I
-
10 Years Scenario II
-
20 Years Scenario III
“It is also certain that the cost of preparing too early is nowhere near the
cost of not being ready on time.”
Alannah
MacTiernan, 2004
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Is there a possible transition to another fuel for most cars?. Probably not
Can we swap to public transport for most trips? No
Will an urgent change now in transport planning practices help us? Yes, dramatically in the long term
Les Magoon, USGS 2001
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DPI-WA
Oil Vulnerability Index for Sydney (2005)
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Mortgage and Oil Vulnerabilityin Perth
at www.aspo-australia.org.au/content/view/120/55/
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$10 PER LITRE PETROL: A SCENARIODavid Rice, Senior WA Transport Planner
But why $10/l?
Simplememorablean illustration of ‘expensive’see www.aspo-australia.org.auin "bibliography"
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Analogy:
The Canberra fire-storms of January 2003 destroyed over 400 houses; on the outer edge of the outer suburbs
Reliable predictions had been ignored by the authorities,
and there was no effective action to minimise the risks
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Oil shocks, like the $10/litre scenario, may well wipe out the entire outer rows of suburbs from Perth, with the same results of destroyed homes, broken dreams and broken marriages.
Perth30 km
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Perth30 kmOil shocks, like the
$10/litre scenario, may well wipe out the entire outer rows of suburbs from Perth, with the same results of destroyed homes, broken dreams and broken marriages.
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Perth30 kmOil shocks, like the
$10/litre scenario, may well wipe out the entire outer rows of suburbs from Perth, with the same results of destroyed homes, broken dreams and broken marriages.
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Perth30 kmOil shocks, like the
$10/litre scenario, may well wipe out the entire outer rows of suburbs from Perth, with the same results of destroyed homes, broken dreams and broken marriages.
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Perth30 kmOil shocks, like the
$10/litre scenario, may well wipe out the entire outer rows of suburbs from Perth, with the same results of destroyed homes, broken dreams and broken marriages.
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
NGLPolarDeepwaterHeavy etcRegular Oil
2007 }Oil
Gboe/pa World All Oil
www.PeakOil.net ASPO 2006
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PerthSydney
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Government of Western Australia
STATE LIQUID FUEL SHORTAGEEMERGENCY PLAN
OPERATIONAL PLAN PREPARED BY
ENERGY SAFETY DIRECTORATEDEPARTMENT OF CONSUMER
AND EMPLOYMENT PROTECTION20 Southport Street, W Leederville
WA 6007Tel: (08) 9422 5200 Fax: (08) 9422 5244
January 2003
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We need both petrol rationing plans and public transport rationing plans in place in case of fuel emergencies.
There must be public transport input into State and Federal fuel emergency planning.
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Walk Bicycle Transit Car
Perth Mode Share (2003)
{If 25% of car users change to public transport
PERTH TRAVEL SURVEY -
2003
Mode SharesWalk only 10.6%
Cycle 1.6%
Public transport 3.9%Car passenger 29.1%Car driver 53.2%Other (taxi, motorbike, etc.) 1.5%
Total 100.0%
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0
20
40
60
80
100
120
30/09
/2001
30/09
/2002
30/09
/2003
30/09
/2004
30/09
/2005
30/09
/2006
30/09
/2007
30/09
/2008
30/09
/2009
30/09
/2010
30/09
/2011
WTI
(US$
/bar
rel)
Actual price
March 2008prediction
March 2007prediction
March 2006prediction
March 2005prediction
March 2004prediction
March 2003
ABARE's
oil price forecasts have proven to be systematically low
Economists' forecasts published Nov 2005 Prof Tony Owen, UNSW, now at Curtin
$35/barrel in a couple of yearsNobel Economics winner, Vernon Smith (at UNSW) $15/barrel in the near future
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1: “Talk about it, Talk about it”2. Engage people, “Participatory democracy”3. Dismantle the "perverse policies" that subsidise heavy car use and excessive freight transport.
Australian Government Policy and Action Options
4. Encourage frugal use of fuel, and disadvantage profligate users. Fuel taxes should be incrementally raised to European levels to reduce usage.5: SmartCard tradable personal fuel allocation system. A flexible mechanism for short- term oil shocks, as well for encouraging people to reduce their fuel usage..6. Concentrate on the psychological and social dimensions of automobile dependence, not just “technological fixes”7. Implement nationwide "individualised marketing" travel demand management.8. Railways, cyclepaths and public transport are better investments than more roads.9. Give priority for remaining oil and gas supplies to food production, essential services and indigenous communities, using the Smart-Card system.10. Review the oil vulnerability of every industry and community sector and how each may reduce their risks.11 Promote through the United Nations an Intergovernmental Panel on Oil Depletion, and a Kyoto-like protocol to allocate equitably the declining oil among nations. An international tradable sliding scale allocation mechanism is one hypothetical option.
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PrioritiesFirst: Awareness and engagement(including in transport planning circles)
FrugalityEfficiencyLast: Alternative fuels
Bruce.Robinson@ASPO-Australia.org.au0427 398 708 61-8-9384-7409
Failure to act NOW will prove incredibly costly
Oil vulnerability assessment and risk management is an important tool
The proposed Oil Vulnerability Research Network is a timely opportunity. Suggestions invited
Hint: Check your superannuation is not being invested into urban toll-roads, tunnels and airports
www.ASPO-Australia.org.au
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Bicycles are powered by biofuel, renewable energy,
either Weetbix
or abdominal fat
No shortage of either
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Roe Highway Bridge Kwinana Freeway
No footpath or cyclepath
on the bridgeWHY??
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Train stationShopping centre
Lack of bicycle transport access. Atwell & Harvest LakesLandcorp, Main Roads
Harvest Lakes subdivision
Main Roads cyclepath
The Harvest Lakes subdivision is close to the Cockburn train station and the shopping centre, but there is no cyclepath
on the eastern side of the freeway.
Perth
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We will need a deeper oil vulnerability index for Keralup
than just a dark red like Rockingham and Armadale
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PrioritiesFirst: Awareness and engagement(including in transport planning circles)
FrugalityEfficiencyLast: Alternative fuels
Bruce.Robinson@ASPO-Australia.org.au0427 398 708 61-8-9384-7409
Failure to act NOW will prove incredibly costly
Oil vulnerability assessment and risk management is an important tool
The proposed Oil Vulnerability Research Network is a timely opportunity. Suggestions invited
Hint: Check your superannuation is not being invested into urban toll-roads, tunnels and airports
www.ASPO-Australia.org.au
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a few more slides follow,in case they are needed for questions
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Petrol taxes OECD
IEA Dec 2003
PortugalUK
Australia
US
€0.80
0.60
0.00
0.20
0.40
Au$cents/litre
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The UK Fuel Tax Escalator Margaret Thatcher
Australian fuel taxes should be raised to European levels on a fuel tax escalator
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998
Nominal tax per litre (pence)
Real tax
10
30
50
40
20
0
pence
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VAMPIRE Oil vulnerability and mortgage rate risk
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0
10
20
30
40
50
1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 20500
1 0
2 0
3 0
4 0
5 0
World oil shortfall scenarios
Past Production of Oil
ForecastProduction
Demand Growth
Deprivation, war
City design/lifestylePricing / taxes
Transport mode shifts
Efficiency
Other petroleum fuelsgas, tar-sands
Other fuels
Gb/year
• no single “Magic Bullet”
solution, • probably no replacement ever for cheap plentiful oil• Urgent preparation and adjustment are vital
2007
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Blue is water, green is water and oil mixedand red/purple is “dry” oil with little water in it
Ghawar is Saudi Arabia's and the world's biggest oilfieldIf it is at peak, then global peak is probably very close
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
NGLPolarDeepwaterHeavy etcRegular Oil
2007 }Oil
Gboe/pa World All Oil
www.PeakOil.net ASPO 2006
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Non-Con GasGasNGLPolarDeepwaterHeavy etcRegular Oil
2007}Oil
Gas
Gboe/pa World All Oil & Gas (gas at 10,000 cft=1bbl)
www.PeakOil.net ASPO 2006
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0
10
20
30
40
50
1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
2007
World oil shortfall scenarios
Past Production of Oil
ForecastProduction
Demand Trend
Gb/year
0
10
20
30
40
50
Shortfall
By 2030, the gap is equivalent to 6,000 nuclear reactors
2030
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February 2004
By 2015, we will need to find, develop and produce new oil and gas equal to eight out of every 10 barrels being produced today.
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0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1930 1970 2010 2050
0
10
20
30
40
0
10
20
30
4040
10
30
20
01930 1970 2010 2050
IEA Shell
Bauquis
Deffeyes ASPO
WorldASPO and others
Gbpa
0
Samsam Bakhtiari
Demand
AustraliaGeoscience Australia
2007
Past Oil Production and Forecasts
1930 1970 2010 2050
TotalBass Strait
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China
US
Australia
70
71
72
73
74
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
100.00
110.00
120.00
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Year
Mill
ion
b/d
Supply IEACapacity CS Capacity CERA
Global liquids capacity to 2015
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Scenario
Wait for peaking
Start 10 years early
Start 20 years
early
Result
Oil shortages largest, longest lasting
Delays peaking; still shortages
Avoids the problem; smooth transition
SCENARIOS ANALYSIS CONCLUSIONS Basis: Immediate crash program implementation
No quick fix!
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