Post on 28-Mar-2020
Ben PageChief Executive, Ipsos MORI
Ipsos MORI LocalPEOPLE, PERCEPTIONS AND PLACE
It’s making the news…
And we are of course, all Localists now….
Who said this? “[We propose]… giving local communities the power to drive real improvements in everything from the way their neighbourhoods are policed to the way that community assets are used. I believe it will help to build the vibrant local democracies on which our society and our public services depend.…”
“Newly empowered councils... through a new 'general power of competence' will be able to do literally whatever they like as long as it's legal - creating solutions to local problems without getting permission from the centre.”
“We need to take control away from central government, where bureaucrats and ministers are in charge, and give it to local government, people and communities”.
The Place Survey shows some real success in local areas
80%
75%
77%
82%
77%
70%
75%
69%
80%
71%
66%
73%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
2006 2008Year surveyed
Satis
fact
ion
Average District Mets & Unitaries LB Inner London Outer London
Q Overall, how satisfied or dissatisfied are you with your local area as a place to live?
We’re happier with where we live
Base: Place Survey 2008/09 (352 local authorities), BVPI 2006 and 2003 (387 local authorities) Source: Ipsos MORI
Q Thinking about this local area, how much of a problem do you think each of the following are… 7 strand ASB index
…ASB is still going down
Base: Place Survey 2008/09 (352 local authorities), BVPI 2006 and 2003 (387 local authorities) Source: Ipsos MORI
20%
38%
23%
36%
21%
19%
42%
23%27%
43%
27%29%
41%
26%28%
45%
30%26%
15%
25%
35%
45%
2003 2008Year surveyed
Prob
lem
Average District Mets & Unitaries LB Inner London Outer London
2006
Q Thinking about this local area, how much of a problem do you think each of the following are… People using or dealing drugs?
Particularly drugs…
Source: Ipsos MORI
31%
60%
43%
60%
42%
29%
63%
33%
46%
61%
36%
45%
60%
38%
50%
61%
44%
35%
25%
35%
45%
55%
65%
2003 2008Year surveyed
Prob
lem
Average District Mets & Unitaries LB Inner London Outer London
2006
Base: Place Survey 2008/09 (352 local authorities), BVPI 2006 and 2003 (387 local authorities)
Q Thinking about this local area, how much of a problem do you think each of the following are… Teenagers hanging around the streets?
…and the terror of teenagers declining
Base: Place Survey 2008/09 (352 local authorities), BVPI 2006 and 2003 (387 local authorities) Source: Ipsos MORI
45%
57% 57%56%
55%
40%
60%
50%
61%59%
48%
60%
56%
48%
56%61%
63%
49%
35%
45%
55%
65%
2003 2008Year surveyed
Prob
lem
Average District Mets & Unitaries LB Inner London Outer London
2006
BUT local authorities getting none of the credit…
45%
55%53%
56%55%
46%
52%
42%
50%
52%49%
54%55%
56%57%
51% 51%
46%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
2003 2008Year surveyed
Satis
fact
ion
Average District Mets & Unitaries LB Inner London Outer London
Q How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way your local council runs things?
Satisfaction with Council is down
Base: Place Survey 2008/09 (352 local authorities), BVPI 2006 and 2003 (387 local authorities) BVPI 2003 Inner London mean excludes Islington, Newham and Tower Hamlets, BVPI 2003 Outer London mean excludes Croydon Source: Ipsos MORI
2006
38%
41%
37%
37%
40%
36%
All council average
Districts
Mets & Unitaries
London boroughs
Inner London
Outer London
…because people don’t know what’s happening?
% Informed
Q Overall, how well informed do you feel you are kept about local public services?
Base: Place Survey 2008/09 (131 local authorities: 59 district councils, 33 London boroughs, 25 Metropolitan districts and 14 unitary authorities) Source: Ipsos MORI
Q Thinking about this local area, how much of a problem do you think each of the following are… rubbish or litter lying around?
For example, rubbish or litter lying around is less of a problem…
Base: Place Survey 2008/09 (131 local authorities), BVPI 2006 and 2003 (387 local authorities) Source: Ipsos MORI
39%
45%42%
41%39%
32%
50%
44%48%
59%
45%
53%56%
44%
52%
61%
54%
47%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
2003 2008Year surveyed
Prob
lem
Average District Mets & Unitaries LB Inner London Outer London
2006
Q How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with each of the following services provided or supported by your local authority?… keeping public land clear of litter and refuse
…BUT satisfaction with the council on this has fallen
*2006 question wording: How satisfied or dissatisfied are you that the local authority has kept this land clear of litter and refuse.
Base: Place Survey 2008/09 (352 local authorities), BVPI 2006 and 2003 (387 local authorities) Source: Ipsos MORI
57%
60%63%
69%
59%
55% 54%52%
58%
65%
56%
63%67%
51%
63%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
2003 2008Year surveyed
Satis
fact
ion
Average District Mets & Unitaries LB Inner London Outer London
2006
Place Survey covers more than just councils…
47%
45%
49%
49%
50%
50%
Average
In Districts
In Mets & Unitaries
In London boroughs
Inner London
Outer London
Satisfaction with local police forces similar to that of councils
% Satisfied
Q Please indicate how satisfied or dissatisfied you are with each of the following public services in your local area?…Your local police force
Base: Place Survey 2008/09 (121 local authorities: 49 district councils, 33 London boroughs, 25 Metropolitan districts and 14 unitary authorities) Source: Ipsos MORI
26%
27%
26%
29%
31%
29%
Average
In Districts
In Mets & Unitaries
In London boroughs
Inner London
Outer London
Local agencies doing badly on the “new single confidence” measure
% Agree
Q And how much would you agree or disagree that the police and other local public services are successfully dealing with these issues [anti-social behaviour and crime] in your local area?
Base: Place Survey 2008/09 (352 local authorities: 201 district councils, 33 London boroughs, 36 Metropolitan districts and 55 unitary authorities) Source: Ipsos MORI
77%
80%
75%
69%
67%
70%
Average
In Districts
In Mets & Unitaries
In London boroughs
Inner London
Outer London
GPs better rated, but London stands out
% Satisfied
Q Please indicate how satisfied or dissatisfied you are with each of the following public services in your local area?…Your GP
Base: Place Survey 2008/09 (121 local authorities: 49 district councils, 33 London boroughs, 25 Metropolitan districts and 14 unitary authorities) Source: Ipsos MORI
54%
56%
53%
47%
40%
51%
Average
In Districts
In Mets & Unitaries
In London boroughs
Inner London
Outer London
… even dentists better rated than councils
% Satisfied
Q Please indicate how satisfied or dissatisfied you are with each of the following public services in your local area?…Your local dentist
Base: Place Survey 2008/09 (121 local authorities: 49 district councils, 33 London boroughs, 25 Metropolitan districts and 14 unitary authorities) Source: Ipsos MORI
Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics?
Two key points:
- understand what is driving these perceptions – both what is in your control and what is not
- look more carefully at local neighbourhoods within authorities
The Perils of Perception – much is beyond your control….
For example overall quality of life can nearly all be explained by just five background factors…
R2 = 54%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50IMD
Satis
fact
ion
with
loca
l are
a
Base: All valid responses, 323 local authorities, Place Survey 2008/09 Source: Ipsos MORI
Very strong relationship with deprivation…
NewhamBarking and Dagenham
Rushmoor
Kingston upon Hull
Barrow in Furness
WestminsterHart
South Hams
ThurrockLiverpool
Hackney
Slough
Ribble Valley
RR2 = 49%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
40% 50% 60% 70%No dependent children
Satis
fact
ion
Base: All valid responses, 323 local authorities, Place Survey 2008/09 Source: Ipsos MORI
…but even very simple measures like proportion of dependent children
Barking and Dagenham
Hackney
Richmond upon Thames
Boston
City of London
South Holland
Ashfield
Sandwell
Milton Keynes
Newham
In fact we can explain 82% of variation in quality of life knowing only…
Degree level or higher qualificationsHouseholds living in homes with 0.5 people or fewer per roomIMDProportion under 21Geographic region – NE happy, London unhappy
R
R2 = 77%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%Predicted satisfaction
Act
ual s
atis
fact
ion
Base: All valid responses, 323 local authorities, Place Survey 2008/09 Source: Ipsos MORI
We can accurately predict quality of life knowing only these factors
Thurrock
Kingston upon Hull
Knowsley Forest Heath
Newham
Barking & Dagenham
Ribble Valley South Hams
South Cambs
The Ipsos MORI Area Challenge Index: Who’s most universally challenged?
Area Challenge index
Looking across all measures, what are the background factors that are largely beyond the control of local services that are most related to perceptions?Identified seven domains which when combined generate a score form 1 to 100 for each local authority:
The Indices of Multiple DeprivationEthnic diversity (the level of ethnic fractionalisation)Young peoplePopulation churnPhysical living conditionsUrbanityRegion
Area Challenge index
The five most and least challenged metropolitan and unitary authorities
72
72
71
70
72 29
28
20
20
14
Manchester
Blackburn with Darwen
Birmingham
Leicester
Luton
Most challenged Least challenged
Isle of Wight
North Lincolnshire
East Riding of YorkshireHerefordshire County
Rutland
Area Challenge index
The five most and least challenged London boroughs
88
86
81
78
100 50
48
47
46
38
Newham
Hackney
Tower Hamlets
Barking and Dagenham
Haringey
Most challenged Least challenged
Kensington and Chelsea
Richmond
Bromley
Havering
City of London
Area Challenge index
The five most and least challenged districts
60
59
56
56
61 7
6
6
1
1
Oxford
Burnley
Hastings
Preston
Pendle
Most challenged Least challenged*
Castle Morpeth
South Shropshire
Tynedale
Alnwick
Teesdale
*All five of the least challenged districts are now part of new unitary authorities
But there are things you can do…
Quality of life heavily impacted by - sense of belonging - ASB, respect and liveability - services provided by key agencies like the council and police
Local public services really matter to a sense of place
- 6%
Positive drivers Negative drivers
- 5%
15%
- 4%
14%
11%
8%
7%
5%
5%
5%
5%
- 6%
- 4%
Belong to immediate neighbourhood
Satisfaction with the way the local council runs things
Safe to go out during the day
Satisfied with parks and open spaces
People not treating each other with respect
People using or dealing drugs
Keeping public land clear of litter and refuse
Local public services working to make the area cleaner and greener
Satisfied with local police force
People from different backgrounds get on well together
Safe to go out after dark Noisy neighbours or loud parties
Vandalism, graffiti and other deliberate damage to property
Rubbish and litter lying around
Satisfied with local area
38.7% of variation explained by model Source: Ipsos MORI
R
R2 = 83%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%ASB
Satis
fact
ion
Base: All valid responses, 323 local authorities, Place Survey 2008/09 Source: Ipsos MORI
Importance of ASB can’t be overstated…
Tower Hamlets
HackneyRossendale
HyndburnThurrock
Broadland
NewhamBarking & Dagenham
Westminster
South Hams
For councils, a few key visible services matter most - and informing and listening
Drivers of satisfaction: The way the Council run things
11%
10%
6%
5%
- 4%
10%
10%
9%
8%
6%
6%
5%
5%
5%
Overall satisfaction with local area
Overall, well informed about local public services
Treated with respect by local public services
Satisfied with your local police force
Owner occupied tenure
Satisfied with refuse collection
Keeping public land clear of litter and refuse
Residents can influence decisions
Well informed about how your council tax is spent
Local public services treat all types of people fairly
Local public services act on the concerns of local residents
Successfully deal with issues
Local public services working to make the area cleaner and greener
Satisfied with local bus service
Satisfied with
council
Positive drivers Negative drivers
45.7% of variation explained by model Source: Ipsos MORI
R
R2 = 52%
25%
35%
45%
55%
65%
75%
25% 35% 45% 55% 65%Informed
Satis
fact
ion
Broadland
Base: All valid responses, 131 local authorities, Place Survey 2008 Source: Ipsos MORI
No councils that communicate well are poorly rated overall
City of LondonWandsworth
Kensington & ChelseaWestminster
Rochdale
Epping Forest
Hammersmith & Fulham
Gedling
North Norfolk
Rother
R
R2 = 8%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
£600£700
£800£900
£1,000£1,100
£1,200£1,300
£1,400£1,500
£1,600£1,700
Average council tax per dwelling
Satis
fact
ion
with
cou
ncil
Source: Ipsos MORI
Council tax vs. satisfaction with council
Wandsworth City of London Kensington & Chelsea
Westminster Richmond upon Thames
Oldham
Rushcliffe
On crime measures, it is a lot about respect – and parenting
Drivers of ASB: understanding where to focus your efforts
12%- 27%
11%
10%
9%
7%
6%
- 6%
- 6%
- 5%
Safe to go out after dark
People not treating each other with respect
Social/council renter
Satisfied with local transport information
Most need improving – clean streets
Keeping public land clear of litter and refuse
Safe to go out during the day
Parents take enough responsibility for the behaviour of children
Anti-social problems
Ethnicity - white
Successfully deal with issues
Positive drivers Negative drivers
42.1% of variation explained by model Source: Ipsos MORI
But can dig deeper into Place – look at how views vary at more local levels within authorities
Using new Ipsos MORI mapping tool:
- key benefit is that doesn’t rely on official geography - can see real patterns of perceptions in contour maps - identify hotspots of concern
So for example, cross-boundary areas of dissatisfaction with area are not missed
…or dissatisfaction with council
Can compare responses on different questions – to help target local actions
ChaseChaseChaseChase
Satisfaction with council Feelings of influence
Can show the importance of individual services?
Satisfaction with GPsWhether public services treat you with respect
Who’s outperforming the “Area Challenge Index”?
We will soon produce full Frontiers tables for all English authorities – initial analysis of c150 authorities suggests that following are “outperformers”:
Satisfaction with Council – Wandsworth: actual satisfaction 75%, model predicts 60%
Satisfaction with area – lots in the North East eg Sunderland, Gateshead and Middlesbrough
Levels of cohesion – Manchester:actual cohesion measure 74%, model predicts 65%
Conclusions
Real challenges for local government in getting recognition for improvements
UK public services are awash with data–big issue is how we use it to improve quality
of life
–especially as money runs out
Over to you!
Thank you ben.page@ipsos.com