Gideon Skinner Research Director, Ipsos MORI Social ...Base: All valid responses (191,401 in 124...
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Measuring public opinion: perceptions, pitfalls and reality Gideon Skinner Research Director, Ipsos MORI Social Research Institute
Transcript of Gideon Skinner Research Director, Ipsos MORI Social ...Base: All valid responses (191,401 in 124...
Measuring public opinion:
perceptions, pitfalls and reality
Gideon Skinner
Research Director, Ipsos MORI Social Research Institute
A brief
introduction
Where – and who – do we work with?
Over 300 different central government departments and
hundreds more local and municipal bodies
International and multilateral institutions such as the European
Commission DGs and the OECD
International financial institutions such as the World Bank and
IMF
The United Nations, and UN agencies
International NGOs and other not-for-profit organizations and
networks
Other organizations with an international focus such as the
International Olympic Committee
We operate across a wide range of policy specialisms.
Long term trends contributing to rise of
government and public sector research
Increasing emphasis
on evidence-based
policymaking
Consultation
Policy options
User experience
Evaluating results
Greater demand for
user-focused services
Scoping needs
Customer experience
Tracking satisfaction
Segmenting customers
Greater need for
efficiency savings
Prioritisation
Understanding “what works”
Public service reform/more for less
Co-production and behaviour change
Rising demand for
accountability and
transparency
Performance management
Communications
Reputation
Public participation
So why do we
care?
Perceptions are reality!
Understanding public priorities helps government and public
services focus on the key issues – as shown in this case study
12%
12%
12%
16%
20%
22%
Bad Things About the Area
Base: All respondents (1,113)
Not clean enough/too much litter
Q Thinking about this local area, what would you say are the bad things about the area?
Young people hanging around
High crime rate/don’t feel safe
Vandalism/graffiti
Poor parking facilities
Noisy
10%
11%
12%
13%
13%
15%
26%
26%
32%
35%
64%
Priorities for the council
Base: All respondents (1,113)
Q Which two or three of these eleven possible priorities do you think should be the most important for the Council?
Reducing crime/improving safety
Access to affordable,quality housing
Making environment cleaner, safer and more attractive
Caring for children, older and vulnerable people
Improving education
Improving access to job opportunities
Meeting the needs of disadvantaged groups
Improving the health of local people
Making it easier to travel round
Supporting the local economy
Improving leisure facilities
8484
74
78
83
50
60
70
80
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Base: All respondents - refuse collection, street cleaning, street lighting. Users: Recycling, parks and open spaces
% Satisfied
Q I would like you to tell me how satisfied or dissatisfied you are overall with your local authority’s…
Parks and open spaces
Street lighting
Street cleaning
Recycling
Refuse collection
Concentrated on streetscene services
46
54
45
54
48
4339
41
25
35
45
55
65
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Improved feelings of safety and ASB
more generally
Q9/10 How safe do you feel walking outside in this area alone in the daytime/in the dark?
% Feel safe
Base: All respondents
50
55
60
5759 59
61
6567
50
60
70
80
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
And saw long-term rises in satisfaction
with the council and the area
Year surveyed
Q Overall, how satisfied or dissatisfied are you with your local Council as a place to live?
% s
atisfie
d
Base: All respondents
So what’s the
problem?
The perils of
perception…..
Crime is one well-known example
Sources: Ipsos MORI International Social Trends Monitor/Delivery Index (average percentage over year); HM Treasury, HM Treasury (2007) Public Expenditure Statistical Analyses 2007 Crown Copyright; Nicholas, S., Kershaw, C. and Walker, A. (2007) Crime in England and Wales 2006/07 Home Office Statistical Bulletin 2nd Edition, Crown Copyright [Index is against number of crimes 1995]
% confident / crime incidents
index
£ crime spending
86
58
27%
63%
£20.2
£29.9
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
£10bn
£15bn
£20bn
£25bn
£30bn
£35bn
Confidence in govt to crack down on crime %
Crime Incidents Index
Crime Spending
355
888
1010
11111111
1212
1313
1515
1618
2030
35
NetherlandsCanada
AustraliaIndia
GermanyCzech Rep
GBSpain
USASwedenMexicoPoland
BelgiumJapan
ArgentinaBrazil
FranceS Korea
TurkeyChina
ItalyRussia
Hungary
Few people are unhappy with their area
% Dissatisfied
Overall, how satisfied or dissatisfied are you with your local area
as a place to live?
Base: c.1,000 residents in each country Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
1517
1920202121
2324
27272829
343737
3943
4747
4954
GermanyNetherlaAustraliaCanadaFrance
BelgiumUSA
CzechGB
IndiaSweden
JapanTurkeyPoland
ItalyHungary
SpainBrazil
MexicoS Korea
ArgentinaRussia
But many are unhappy with their local
government
% Dissatisfied
Base: c.1,000 residents in each country Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
And now taking everything into account, how satisfied or dissatisfied are
you with the way your local council/municipal authority/local government
runs things?
Perceptions aren’t reality! The problem of the perception gap
Five main “Perils of Perception”
The Perils
of
Perceptio
n
There are very
strong area effects
(within and
between countries)
Expectations can increase – so that even if
see objective improvements,
perceptions may not
People can be wrong – or at least not answer about what we think we
are measuring
People are influenced by
things like politics and the media
The “national”
is not the sum
of the “local”
“Give us the credit
for thinking for
ourselves”
“We are intelligent people,
we can make up our own
minds, after hearing the
facts. Providing we hear the
facts”
“We vote the
Government in to
make these
decisions for us”
“If the law needs to
change then they
should do it
“Cognitive polyphasia” – or, we don’t
know what we think…
The same person can express apparently contradictory views and feel perfectly at ease
3 19 15 50 14
% Strongly disagree % Tend to disagree Bar 3
% Tend to agree % Strongly agree
So, for example, we say we want local control in
policing…
If neighbourhoods take more responsibility for addressing crime and
anti-social behaviour (such as through reporting crime or monitoring
community CCTV), they should be given more control over police
resources
43 20 16 12 9
..but we also want services to be the same
everywhere
Please read each pair of statements and decide which comes
closest to your own opinion
Agree much
more with A
Agree much
more with B
Standards of public
services should be the
same everywhere in
Britain
The people who live
in different parts of
Britain should be
able to decide for
themselves what
standard of public
services should be
provided in their
area
So what can we
do about it?
Five steps to improve perceptions
Improving perception indicators
Build better models of what is
driving perceptions
Encourage staff initiative/
flexibility
Learn from the
outliers – why
doing
well/badly?
Look locally –understand local characteristics
Communications are key, including media relations
and targeting by issue/area/ type of person
First of all, understand the factors that
you can’t control…
For example overall quality of life in
the UK can nearly all be explained by a
handful of background factors…
R2 = 54%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
IMD
Sati
sfa
cti
on
wit
h l
ocal
are
a
Base: All valid responses, 323 local authorities, Place Survey 2008/09 Source: Ipsos MORI
Very strong relationship with deprivation…
Think about this when setting targets - do you
take into account “value-add”?
Satisfaction with Council
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0 20 40 60 80
Deprivation and Ethnicity
% S
ati
sfi
ed
wit
h C
ou
nc
il
Sat low
Sat exp
Sat upper
*A
*B *C
Improve our communications
35%
41%
21%
4%
Very well informed
Not very well informed
Fairly well informed
Not well informed at all
Q Overall, how well informed do you feel about local public services?
Base: All valid responses (191,401 in 124 councils by Ipsos MORI). 2008/9 Place Survey
Is this why local councils aren’t getting
the credit?
Think hard about staff
advocacy and the
drivers of it…
Employees as ambassadors
thelondonpaper.com
Bring all this together
so you can focus on
the key drivers of
perceptions (in other
words, so you can act
on the things that
make a difference)
Satisfaction
with service
Drivers
Five key drivers of customer satisfaction
This model explains 67% of the variation in satisfaction
Main elements
Delivery The final outcome The way the service kept its promises The way the service handled any problems
Professionalism Competent staff Being treated fairly Reliability
Staff attitude Polite and friendly staff How sympathetic staff were to your needs
Timeliness Initial wait How long it takes overall Number of times had to contact the service
Information Accuracy of info Comprehensiveness of info Being kept informed about progress
Satisfaction
with local/
municipal
government
Understanding what drives satisfaction
with municipal government
High Level of
contr
ol
Low
Perceived value for
money and/or absence of
corruption
“Liveability”: clean, safe
and strong communities
Media coverage
Direct communication
and engagement
Overall service quality
Background factors:
affluence, diversity etc
International views of
the economy,
globalisation, and
regulation
8682
7673
6760
5652
4745
4444
3228
2525
2220
1717
98
75
IndiaChina
Saudi ArabiaAustraliaCanada
BrazilSweden
IndonesiaPoland
GermanySouth Africa
TurkeySouth Korea
RussiaArgentina
USABelgiumMexico
Great BritainItaly
FranceHungary
JapanSpain
Worldwide variation in economic confidence
Base: 19,187 online consumer citizens, April 2010
% describing their country’s economic situation as good
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
6 month Change
+6 +4 n/a -6
+10 -9 +3 n/a +6 +3 n/a
+5 +4
+6 -3
+1 +3 -6 -6
+2
0 -5
-3
+2
Attitudes to globalisation: a segmentation
Pro-control Anti-control
Anti- globalisation
Pro- globalisation
Controlled globalisers
(23%)
Cautious globalisers
(26%)
Critics of capitalism
(20%)
Free-market
traders
(18%)
Profits first
(13%)
Base: 22,000 online consumer citizens, November 2008
Globalisation vs. regulation by country
Overall, globalisation is a good thing for my country
It is in [Country’s] interest that our big industries should be
controlled by the government
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
% Govt should exercise control over industry
% G
lob
ali
sati
on
go
od
China
Turkey
South
Korea
Russia
Japan
Great
Britain
Germany
Sweden
Indonesia
India
Saudi Arabia
Poland
Brazil
Spain Italy
USA
Mexico
Argentina
Belgium
France
Canada
Australia
Controlled
globalisers
Critics of
capitalism
Free market traders
Profits first
South Africa
Hungary
Base: 19,187 online consumer citizens, April 2010
Final thoughts
Challenges of measuring perception
Perception measures are here to stay – and we should see them as a real opportunity
But need to be handled with care….
– Are they relevant, attributable, focussed?
– Do you understand what drives these perceptions – what you can control and what you can’t?
– At what level: local vs national, government vs service?
– Do your staff buy into them?
Public communications can get much better
Don’t expect it to be easy – but if you use them well you can make a difference
The Ipsos Social Research Institute – some
thinkpieces and reports
