WHAT IS GLOBAL CLIMATE AND ITS STUDY, GLOBAL CLIMATOLOGY?

Weather: Highly variable from location to location, time period to time period,week to week, day to day, hour to hour. Very erratic and very hard to forecast accurately any more than a day or two ahead

http://www.intellicast.com/National/Surface/Current.aspx

Weather: Highly variable from location to location, time period to time period,week to week, day to day, hour to hour. Very erratic and very hard to forecast accurately any more than a day or two ahead

http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane/Active.aspx?storm=3&type=trackhttp://www.intellicast.com/Local/Weather.aspx

WHAT IS GLOBAL CLIMATE AND ITS STUDY, GLOBAL CLIMATOLOGY?

Climate: Weather aggregated over many years

Day of Year

0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360

T max

(°F)

60

70

80

90

60

70

80

90

Daily Mean Tmax

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Aug Sep OctJul Nov Dec

Average Daily MaximumTemperatures.Lake City, Florida, 1893-2010

Why is it hot is June –August and cool December- February?

Why do max. temps appear to “plateau” in summer, but not in winter?

WHAT IS GLOBAL CLIMATE AND ITS STUDY, GLOBAL CLIMATOLOGY?

Climate: Weather aggregated over many years

Average Daily MaximumTemperatures, and measureof variability.Lake City, Florida, 1893-2010

Day of Year

0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360

T max

(°F)

50

60

70

80

90

50

60

70

80

90

Daily Mean Tmax

Mean - 1St. devMean + 1 St. dev

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Aug Sep OctJul Nov DecWhy is the range of likely maximum daily temperatures so much larger in winter than in summer?

WHAT IS GLOBAL CLIMATE AND ITS STUDY, GLOBAL CLIMATOLOGY?

Climate: Weather aggregated over many years

Day of Year

0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360

T max

(°F)

50

60

70

80

90

50

60

70

80

90

Daily Mean Tmax

Mean - 1St. devMean + 1 St. dev97oF

P(T

max

>97°

F)

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15Computed Daily Prob.11-day running mean

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Aug Sep OctJul Nov Dec

97°F

Average Daily MaximumTemperatures, and measureof variability.AND risks of temperatures greater than 97°F!Lake City, Florida, 1893-2010

Why do the risks of exceeding 97°F peak in June, then plateau through July and August, before declining in the Fall?

WHAT IS GLOBAL CLIMATE AND ITS STUDY, GLOBAL CLIMATOLOGY?

Climate: Weather aggregated over many years

Average maximum annual temperature, °F 1949 - 2000

VARIATIONS IN SPACE TOO!TIME AND SPACE!

• Why are the highest annual maxima found in North Florida?

• Why are maximum temperatures greater inland compared to the coast?

1 0

1 3

1 5

1 8

2 0

2 3

2 5

2 8

3 0

3 5

5 0 0

1 0

1 5

2 0

2 5

3 0

5 0 0

PERCENTAGE OF MEAN ANNUALPRECIPITATION OCCURRING

IN WINTER.1949 - 2000

TIME SCALES - Seasonal

• Why does NW Florida receive a higher % of its annual precip. in winter?

• Why does S Florida experience such a low % in winter?

-88 -87 -86 -85 -84 -83 -82 -81 -8025

26

27

28

29

30

31

-88 -87 -86 -85 -84 -83 -82 -81 -8025

26

27

28

29

30

31

-88 -87 -86 -85 -84 -83 -82 -81 -8025

26

27

28

29

30

31

COLD PHASE ENSO – La Niña

NEUTRAL PHASE ENSO

WARM PHASE ENSO – El Niño

Proportion of annual precipitation duringwinter under variousENSO phases.

TIME SCALES – Interannual – globalConnections.

Why does a change in sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific impact the precip. in Florida?

-88 -87 -86 -85 -84 -83 -82 -81 -8025

26

27

28

29

30

31

Differences in Proportionof annual precipitation

During winterWarm phase - Cold phases.

TIME SCALES – Interannual

Why areas of Florida can anticipate the greatest changes in rainfall dependent upon the equatorial Pacific?

TIME SCALES – InterdecadalNumber of Heat Waves Per Year

Lake City Florida, 1905-1994.

Number of Heat Waves (98°F+) per Year0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Pro

porti

on o

f Yea

rs

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

1905-25 (average = 1.5) Cold AMO1926-64 (average = 2.2) Warm AMO1964-94 (average = 1.1) Cold AMO

How do the risks of the number of heat waves annually change with long-term changes in the temperature of the Atlantic Ocean?

WHAT IS GLOBAL CLIMATE AND ITS STUDY, GLOBAL CLIMATOLOGY?

“Climate is what you expect,……..”

Includes average, variability and extremes

WHAT IS GLOBAL CLIMATE AND ITS STUDY, GLOBAL CLIMATOLOGY?

“Climate is what you expect,……..”

Includes average, variability and extremes

“………. Weather is what you get!”

HOW ARE WE GOING TO STUDY IT?

HOW ARE WE GOING TO STUDY IT?

Flows of Energy and Mass.

Movements of Energy and Mass within the Earth’s Atmospheric System

WHAT’S THE BASIC PROBLEM?

WHAT’S THE BASIC PROBLEM?

Source of Energy:SUN

WHAT’S THE BASIC PROBLEM?

Source of Energy:SUN

Target Planet of Interest:

EARTH

WHAT’S THE BASIC PROBLEM?

Source of Energy:SUN

Target Planet of Interest:

EARTH

1. About 92.6 million miles (150 million Km)

WHAT’S THE BASIC PROBLEM?

Source of Energy:SUN

Target Planet of Interest:

EARTH

1. About 92.6 million miles (150 million Km)

2. Target rotating anti-clockwise

around own axis once every 24

hrs.

WHAT’S THE BASIC PROBLEM?

Source of Energy:SUN

Target Planet of Interest:

EARTH

1. About 92.6 million miles (150 million Km)

2. Target rotating anti-clockwise

around own axis once every 24 hr.

3. Target revolving around

source once every 365.25 dy