Post on 22-May-2020
Presentation Title Subtitle
Date and Location
History Shaping the Future: Benchmarking and Performance Trends in the Hotel Sector for Strategic Decision Making
Elizabeth Randall Winkle Managing Director, STR Global
Fáilte Ireland Industry Breakfast Briefing 2 October 2012
STR Global Ltd is the exclusive owner of all rights in this presentation and its content. Reproduction of all or a portion of this presentation for any purpose without prior approval of STR Global is strictly prohibited
Global Overview – mixed results
Spotlight on Europe – stabilising demand, muted new
Supply
Focus on Ireland– recovery
Pipeline – Europe
Forecast – what does the future hold?
Agenda
Europe €
YE 09 YE 10 YE11 YTD12
-16.7% +9.9% +5.8% +5.3%
Asia Pacific $
YE 09 YE 10 YE 11 YTD12
-20.0% +17.5% +8.8% +3.3%
North America $
YE 09 YE 10 YE11 YTD12
-17.0% +6.0% +8.0% +6.8%
RevPAR % change
Middle East & Africa $
YE 09 YE 10 YE11 YTD12
Middle East -19.4% -6.3% +2.9% +8.9%
N. Africa -11.9% +11.7% -36.3% +10.5%
S. Africa -13.4% +12.7% -0.6% - 3.6%
Global RevPAR
Moderate Demand growth w/ muted supply growth
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8%
Europe €
Middle East
North America Asia Pacific
Year to date 2012, YOY % change, supply, demand, revPAR USD$
SUPPLY
DEMAND
RGI almost to 1.0 RGI Index on YTD Aug 2008, US dollars, only Europe in Euros
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
YTD Aug 07 YTD Aug 08 YTD Aug 09 YTD Aug 10 YTD Aug 11 YTD Aug 12
Middle East
Europe
North America
Asia Pacific
Asia Pacific
Aug’12 $139
$110
$115
$120
$125
$130
$135
$140
$145 Fe
b 0
8
May
08
Au
g 0
8
No
v 0
8
Feb
09
May
09
Au
g 0
9
No
v 0
9
Feb
10
May
10
Au
g 1
0
No
v 1
0
Feb
11
May
11
Au
g 1
1
No
v 1
1
Feb
12
May
12
Au
g 1
2
ADR $
Sep’08 $141
Dec’09 $117
-17%
+18.8%
15 months
33 months
Total AP, ADR US$, Jan 08 – Aug 12
Middle East & Africa
$135
$140
$145
$150
$155
$160
$165 Fe
b 0
8
May
08
Au
g 0
8
No
v 0
8
Feb
09
May
09
Au
g 0
9
No
v 0
9
Feb
10
May
10
Au
g 1
0
No
v 1
0
Feb
11
May
11
Au
g 1
1
No
v 1
1
Feb
12
May
12
Au
g 1
2
ADR $
14 months 23 months
Jan’09 $156
-4%
Total MEA, ADR US$, Jan 08 – Aug 12
Feb’10 $150
Jan’12 $163
+9%
Europe € - taking longer to recover Total Europe, ADR Euros €, 12 MMA 2008 – YTD 2012
90.00
92.00
94.00
96.00
98.00
100.00
102.00
104.00
106.00
108.00
110.00
2008 2009 2010 2011 2 0 1 2
-13%
23 months
Apr ’08 €107
Feb ’10 €93
+9.6%
29 months
July ‘12 €102
$84.66 $83.62 $82.54 $82.67 $86.19 $91.04 $97.82 $104.32 $107.40 $98.07 $98.06 $101.70 $106.15 $111.01
$84.66
$87.07 $88.45
$90.46
$92.87
$96.02
$99.12
$101.94
$105.85
$105.48
$107.21
$110.59
$112.91
$115.29
$80
$90
$100
$110
$120
Nominal ADR
Yr 2000, Grown by CPI
If year 2000 ADR had increased by CPI each year…
Total US Room Rates Actual vs. Inflation Adjusted 2000 – 2013F
Note: 2011 & 2012 CPI forecast from Blue Chip Economic Indicators
Global Overview – mixed results
Spotlight on Europe – stabilising demand, muted new
Supply
Focus on Ireland– recovery
Pipeline – Europe
Forecast – what does the future hold?
Agenda
Europe in detail
11
YTD 2012 Occ ADR RevPAR Total 65% €104 €67 Eastern 58% €91 €53 Northern 69% €99 €68 Southern 61% €102 €62 Western 65% €116 €75
9%
36%
26%
29%
Sample rooms
Eastern
Northern
Southern
Western
YTD Occ ADR RevPAR
Top 65% €169 €110
Middle 65% €88 €57
Lower 66% €61 €40
Jan-July 2012
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Am
ster
dam
Ath
ens
Bar
celo
na
Be
rlin
Bru
sse
ls
Bu
dap
est
Du
blin
Hel
sin
ki
Ista
nb
ul
Lisb
on
Lon
do
n
Mad
rid
Mo
sco
w
Pari
s
Pra
gue
Ro
me
Vie
nn
a
War
saw
Zuri
ch
Occupancy
ADR
Selected European Cities
2012 YTD, %chg, Occ and ADR (local currency)
London high Occ and Paris with high ADR Jan-Aug2012
€0
€50
€100
€150
€200
€250
€300
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90% Occupancy ADR €
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
65,000,000
75,000,000
85,000,000
95,000,000
105,000,000
115,000,000
125,000,000
135,000,000 Ja
n-9
9
Au
g-9
9
Mar
-00
Oct
-00
May
-01
Dec
-01
Jul-
02
Feb
-03
Sep
-03
Ap
r-0
4
No
v-0
4
Jun
-05
Jan
-06
Au
g-0
6
Mar
-07
Oct
-07
May
-08
Dec
-08
Jul-
09
Feb
-10
Sep
-10
Ap
r-1
1
No
v-1
1
Jun
-12
Supply Demand RevPAR (€)
European long-term view Seasonal adjusted supply, demand (# monthly rooms), RevPAR
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Jan
-00
Jul-
00
Jan
-01
Jul-
01
Jan
-02
Jul-
02
Jan
-03
Jul-
03
Jan
-04
Jul-
04
Jan
-05
Jul-
05
Jan
-06
Jul-
06
Jan
-07
Jul-
07
Jan
-08
Jul-
08
Jan
-09
Jul-
09
Jan
-10
Jul-
10
Jan
-11
Jul-
11
Jan
-12
Jul-
12
Occupancy ADR
European long-term view
YOY percentage change for occupancy and ADR €
Spotlight on downturns
YOY percentage change for occupancy and ADR €
-20 -15 -10
-5 0 5
No
v-0
7
Dec
-07
Ja
n-0
8
Feb
-08
M
ar-0
8
Ap
r-0
8
May
-08
Ju
n-0
8
Jul-
08
A
ug-
08
Se
p-0
8
Oct
-08
N
ov-
08
D
ec-0
8
Jan
-09
Fe
b-0
9
Mar
-09
A
pr-
09
M
ay-0
9
Jun
-09
Ju
l-0
9
Au
g-0
9
Sep
-09
O
ct-0
9
No
v-0
9
Dec
-09
-5
0
5
10
Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12
Occupancy ADR
Global Overview – mixed results
Spotlight on Europe – stabilising demand, muted new
Supply
Focus on Ireland– on the recovery road
Pipeline – Europe
Forecast – what does the future hold?
Agenda
Dublin – revPAR growth just surpassed demand 2012 YTD Rolling 12 month supply ( # monthly rooms ), demand, revPAR (Euros €)
Dublin – ADR on the road to recovery Dublin, ADR Euros €, 12 MMA 2008 – YTD August 2012
Jan ’08 €109.16
Dec’10 €77.46
+11.1% 20 months
Aug ’12 €86.06
Cork – stable supply & demand & rising revPAR
2012 YTD Rolling 12 month supply ( # monthly rooms ), demand, revPAR (Euros €)
Cork – rate on the recovery highway Cork, ADR Euros €, 12 MMA 2008 – YTD August 2012
Aug ’08 €93.32
Aug ‘12 €81.26
Jun ‘10 €69.39 26 months
+17.1%
Irish markets – encouraging growth
Jan-August 2012, %chg, Occ and ADR (Euros €)
Global Overview – mixed results
Spotlight on Europe – stabilising demand, muted new
Supply
Focus on Ireland– recovery
Pipeline – Europe
Forecast – what does the future hold?
Agenda
Pipeline - Europe
30.50%
13.59%
11.18%
5.22%
3.75% 3.63%
Pipeline share
United Kingdom
Russia
Germany
Turkey
France
Italy
July 2012, pipeline share
Global Overview – mixed results
Spotlight on Europe – stabilising demand, muted new
Supply
Focus on Ireland– recovery
Pipeline – Europe
Forecast – what does the future hold?
Agenda
Dublin – Annual Trends and Forecast by Year Euros € currency as of August 2012 forecast
-25.0%
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Annual Trends - Percent Change from Last Year Occupancy
ADR
RevPAR
Dublin – what do the next three quarters hold? Euros € currency as of August 2012 forecast
Dublin
Dublin – YE 2012 and 2013 forecast Euros € currency as of August 2012 forecast
Dublin
Annual Performance Occupancy ADR RevPAR
Year % % Change Euro - € % Change Euro - € % Change
Forecast(f) 2012 f 71.6 0.5% 86.01 5.4% 61.56 5.9%
2013 f 70.1 -2.0% 85.57 -0.5% 60.00 -2.5%
Forecast – Selected Cities
2012 RevPAR forecast % chg, local currency as per August 2012 edition
Declines expected Growth expected
Athens Amsterdam London
Madrid Barcelona Moscow
Regional UK Berlin Prague
Milan Brussels Paris Luxury & Upper Upscale
Zurich Budapest Rome
Copenhagen Vienna
Dublin Warsaw
Expect Slowing Eurozone GDP / Demand
% Change
*Eurozone Demand & GDP % Change, Quarterly 2004 – 2014F GDP Source: Oxford Economics
STR Global, Ltd is the exclusive owner of all rights in this presentation and its content. Reproduction of all or a portion of this presentation for any purpose without prior approval of STR Global is strictly prohibited. This presentation is based on information compiled by STR Global Ltd. No strategic or marketing recommendations or advice are intended or implied.
Contact details
Elizabeth Randall Winkle
0207 922 1930
ewinkle@strglobal.com
www.strglobal.com
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