History Shaping the Future: Benchmarking and Performance ......History Shaping the Future:...

Presentation Title Subtitle

Date and Location

History Shaping the Future: Benchmarking and Performance Trends in the Hotel Sector for Strategic Decision Making

Elizabeth Randall Winkle Managing Director, STR Global

Fáilte Ireland Industry Breakfast Briefing 2 October 2012

STR Global Ltd is the exclusive owner of all rights in this presentation and its content. Reproduction of all or a portion of this presentation for any purpose without prior approval of STR Global is strictly prohibited

Global Overview – mixed results

Spotlight on Europe – stabilising demand, muted new

Supply

Focus on Ireland– recovery

Pipeline – Europe

Forecast – what does the future hold?

Agenda

Europe €

YE 09 YE 10 YE11 YTD12

-16.7% +9.9% +5.8% +5.3%

Asia Pacific $

YE 09 YE 10 YE 11 YTD12

-20.0% +17.5% +8.8% +3.3%

North America $


-17.0% +6.0% +8.0% +6.8%

RevPAR % change

Middle East & Africa $


Middle East -19.4% -6.3% +2.9% +8.9%

N. Africa -11.9% +11.7% -36.3% +10.5%

S. Africa -13.4% +12.7% -0.6% - 3.6%

Global RevPAR

Moderate Demand growth w/ muted supply growth

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8%

Europe €

Middle East

North America Asia Pacific

Year to date 2012, YOY % change, supply, demand, revPAR USD$

SUPPLY

DEMAND

RGI almost to 1.0 RGI Index on YTD Aug 2008, US dollars, only Europe in Euros

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1.1

YTD Aug 07 YTD Aug 08 YTD Aug 09 YTD Aug 10 YTD Aug 11 YTD Aug 12

Middle East

Europe

North America

Asia Pacific

Asia Pacific

Aug’12 $139

$110

$115

$120

$125

$130

$135

$140

$145 Fe

b 0

8

May

08

Au

g 0

8

No

v 0

8

Feb

09

May

09

Au

g 0

9

No

v 0

9

Feb

10

May

10

Au

g 1

0

No

v 1

0

Feb

11

May

11

Au

g 1

1

No

v 1

1

Feb

12

May

12

Au

g 1

2

ADR $

Sep’08 $141

Dec’09 $117

-17%

+18.8%

15 months

33 months

Total AP, ADR US$, Jan 08 – Aug 12

Middle East & Africa

$135

$140

$145

$150

$155

$160

$165 Fe

b 0

8

May

08

Au

g 0

8

No

v 0

8

Feb

09

May

09

Au

g 0

9

No

v 0

9

Feb

10

May

10

Au

g 1

0

No

v 1

0

Feb

11

May

11

Au

g 1

1

No

v 1

1

Feb

12

May

12

Au

g 1

2

ADR $

14 months 23 months

Jan’09 $156

-4%

Total MEA, ADR US$, Jan 08 – Aug 12

Feb’10 $150

Jan’12 $163

+9%

Europe € - taking longer to recover Total Europe, ADR Euros €, 12 MMA 2008 – YTD 2012

90.00

92.00

94.00

96.00

98.00

100.00

102.00

104.00

106.00

108.00

110.00

2008 2009 2010 2011 2 0 1 2

-13%

23 months

Apr ’08 €107

Feb ’10 €93

+9.6%

29 months

July ‘12 €102

$84.66 $83.62 $82.54 $82.67 $86.19 $91.04 $97.82 $104.32 $107.40 $98.07 $98.06 $101.70 $106.15 $111.01

$84.66

$87.07 $88.45

$90.46

$92.87

$96.02

$99.12

$101.94

$105.85

$105.48

$107.21

$110.59

$112.91

$115.29

$80

$90

$100

$110

$120

Nominal ADR

Yr 2000, Grown by CPI

If year 2000 ADR had increased by CPI each year…

Total US Room Rates Actual vs. Inflation Adjusted 2000 – 2013F

Note: 2011 & 2012 CPI forecast from Blue Chip Economic Indicators

http://www.str.com/



Supply


Pipeline – Europe


Agenda

Europe in detail

11

YTD 2012 Occ ADR RevPAR Total 65% €104 €67 Eastern 58% €91 €53 Northern 69% €99 €68 Southern 61% €102 €62 Western 65% €116 €75

9%

36%

26%

29%

Sample rooms

Eastern

Northern

Southern

Western

YTD Occ ADR RevPAR

Top 65% €169 €110

Middle 65% €88 €57

Lower 66% €61 €40

Jan-July 2012

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Am

ster

dam

Ath

ens

Bar

celo

na

Be

rlin

Bru

sse

ls

Bu

dap

est

Du

blin

Hel

sin

ki

Ista

nb

ul

Lisb

on

Lon

do

n

Mad

rid

Mo

sco

w

Pari

s

Pra

gue

Ro

me

Vie

nn

a

War

saw

Zuri

ch

Occupancy

ADR

Selected European Cities

2012 YTD, %chg, Occ and ADR (local currency)

London high Occ and Paris with high ADR Jan-Aug2012

€0

€50

€100

€150

€200

€250

€300

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90% Occupancy ADR €

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

65,000,000

75,000,000

85,000,000

95,000,000

105,000,000

115,000,000

125,000,000

135,000,000 Ja

n-9

9

Au

g-9

9

Mar

-00

Oct

-00

May

-01

Dec

-01

Jul-

02

Feb

-03

Sep

-03

Ap

r-0

4

No

v-0

4

Jun

-05

Jan

-06

Au

g-0

6

Mar

-07

Oct

-07

May

-08

Dec

-08

Jul-

09

Feb

-10

Sep

-10

Ap

r-1

1

No

v-1

1

Jun

-12

Supply Demand RevPAR (€)

European long-term view Seasonal adjusted supply, demand (# monthly rooms), RevPAR

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

Jan

-00

Jul-

00

Jan

-01

Jul-

01

Jan

-02

Jul-

02

Jan

-03

Jul-

03

Jan

-04

Jul-

04

Jan

-05

Jul-

05

Jan

-06

Jul-

06

Jan

-07

Jul-

07

Jan

-08

Jul-

08

Jan

-09

Jul-

09

Jan

-10

Jul-

10

Jan

-11

Jul-

11

Jan

-12

Jul-

12

Occupancy ADR

European long-term view

YOY percentage change for occupancy and ADR €

Spotlight on downturns

YOY percentage change for occupancy and ADR €

-20 -15 -10

-5 0 5

No

v-0

7

Dec

-07

Ja

n-0

8

Feb

-08

M

ar-0

8

Ap

r-0

8

May

-08

Ju

n-0

8

Jul-

08

A

ug-

08

Se

p-0

8

Oct

-08

N

ov-

08

D

ec-0

8

Jan

-09

Fe

b-0

9

Mar

-09

A

pr-

09

M

ay-0

9

Jun

-09

Ju

l-0

9

Au

g-0

9

Sep

-09

O

ct-0

9

No

v-0

9

Dec

-09

-5

0

5

10

Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12

Occupancy ADR



Supply

Focus on Ireland– on the recovery road

Pipeline – Europe


Agenda

Dublin – revPAR growth just surpassed demand 2012 YTD Rolling 12 month supply ( # monthly rooms ), demand, revPAR (Euros €)

Dublin – ADR on the road to recovery Dublin, ADR Euros €, 12 MMA 2008 – YTD August 2012

Jan ’08 €109.16

Dec’10 €77.46

+11.1% 20 months

Aug ’12 €86.06

Cork – stable supply & demand & rising revPAR

2012 YTD Rolling 12 month supply ( # monthly rooms ), demand, revPAR (Euros €)

Cork – rate on the recovery highway Cork, ADR Euros €, 12 MMA 2008 – YTD August 2012

Aug ’08 €93.32

Aug ‘12 €81.26

Jun ‘10 €69.39 26 months

+17.1%

Irish markets – encouraging growth

Jan-August 2012, %chg, Occ and ADR (Euros €)



Supply


Pipeline – Europe


Agenda

Pipeline - Europe

30.50%

13.59%

11.18%

5.22%

3.75% 3.63%

Pipeline share

United Kingdom

Russia

Germany

Turkey

France

Italy

July 2012, pipeline share



Supply


Pipeline – Europe


Agenda

Dublin – Annual Trends and Forecast by Year Euros € currency as of August 2012 forecast

-25.0%

-20.0%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Annual Trends - Percent Change from Last Year Occupancy

ADR

RevPAR

Dublin – what do the next three quarters hold? Euros € currency as of August 2012 forecast

Dublin

Dublin – YE 2012 and 2013 forecast Euros € currency as of August 2012 forecast

Dublin

Annual Performance Occupancy ADR RevPAR

Year % % Change Euro - € % Change Euro - € % Change

Forecast(f) 2012 f 71.6 0.5% 86.01 5.4% 61.56 5.9%

2013 f 70.1 -2.0% 85.57 -0.5% 60.00 -2.5%

Forecast – Selected Cities

2012 RevPAR forecast % chg, local currency as per August 2012 edition

Declines expected Growth expected

Athens Amsterdam London

Madrid Barcelona Moscow

Regional UK Berlin Prague

Milan Brussels Paris Luxury & Upper Upscale

Zurich Budapest Rome

Copenhagen Vienna

Dublin Warsaw

Expect Slowing Eurozone GDP / Demand

% Change

*Eurozone Demand & GDP % Change, Quarterly 2004 – 2014F GDP Source: Oxford Economics

STR Global, Ltd is the exclusive owner of all rights in this presentation and its content. Reproduction of all or a portion of this presentation for any purpose without prior approval of STR Global is strictly prohibited. This presentation is based on information compiled by STR Global Ltd. No strategic or marketing recommendations or advice are intended or implied.

Contact details

Elizabeth Randall Winkle

0207 922 1930

[email protected]

www.strglobal.com

You can follow us on Twitter, Facebook, LinkedIn

http://www.strglobal.com/

History Shaping the Future: Benchmarking and Performance ......History Shaping the Future:...

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