Historical climate and Historical climate and future scenariosfuture scenarios

Trevor MurdockTrevor Murdock

Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC)Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC)

University of VictoriaUniversity of Victoria

Canadian Columbia River Forum

27 October 2008

1.1. Pacific Climate Pacific Climate Impacts ConsortiumImpacts Consortium

2.2. Variability and Variability and historical trendshistorical trends

3.3. Future projectionsFuture projections

OutlineOutline

Pacific Climate Impacts ConsortiumPacific Climate Impacts Consortium www.PacificClimate.org

Launched 2005Launched 2005 Focus on regional climate impactsFocus on regional climate impacts Application of research to management, Application of research to management,

planning, and decision-makingplanning, and decision-making Partner with research labs, impacts Partner with research labs, impacts

researchers and regional stakeholdersresearchers and regional stakeholders

PCIC ResourcesPCIC Resources

BC Ministry of EnvironmentBC Ministry of Environment PICS Endowment PICS Endowment www.pics.uvic.ca

BC HydroBC Hydro BC Ministry of Forests and RangeBC Ministry of Forests and Range Communities and others – small projectsCommunities and others – small projects

1010 15 full time staff + post-docs 15 full time staff + post-docs

www.PacificClimate.org/publications Support from BC Hydro & BC MOESupport from BC Hydro & BC MOE

Climate Overview ProjectClimate Overview Project

1.1. Pacific Climate Pacific Climate Impacts ConsortiumImpacts Consortium

2.2. Variability and Variability and historical trendshistorical trends

3.3. Future projectionsFuture projections

OutlineOutline

Annual and decadal variability Annual and decadal variability superimposed on climate trendssuperimposed on climate trends

• Trend• Decadal• Annual

El Nino – less precipitation El Nino – less precipitation La Nina – more precipitation La Nina – more precipitation

El Nino – warmer El Nino – warmer La Nina – coolerLa Nina – cooler

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) superimposed on ENSOsuperimposed on ENSO

Cranbrook historical trends: warmer, wetter, more Cranbrook historical trends: warmer, wetter, more rain, less snow, earlier streamflow, lower peak flowrain, less snow, earlier streamflow, lower peak flow

Cranbrook warming faster than Cranbrook warming faster than nearby stations (1913-2002)nearby stations (1913-2002)

50-yr Temperature Trends50-yr Temperature Trends

30-yr Temperature Trends30-yr Temperature Trends

Precipitation (1913-2002)Precipitation (1913-2002)

1.1. Pacific Climate Pacific Climate Impacts ConsortiumImpacts Consortium

2.2. Variability and Variability and historical trendshistorical trends

3.3. Future projectionsFuture projections

OutlineOutline

• Global Climate Models – Global Climate Models – range of uncertaintyrange of uncertainty

• Regional Climate Models – Regional Climate Models – inter-regional differences inter-regional differences from larger scale changesfrom larger scale changes

• Empirical Downscaling – Empirical Downscaling – high resolution high resolution elevation elevation correction on temperaturecorrection on temperature

Projections of future climate changeProjections of future climate change

IPCC AR4 Figure SPM.5IPCC AR4 Figure SPM.5

Amount of climate change depends on Amount of climate change depends on greenhouse gas emissionsgreenhouse gas emissions

• BC Temperature Anomalies from (1961-1990)• 15 GCMs

• solid A2• dash B1

BC projected to warm considerably BC projected to warm considerably compared to historical variabilitycompared to historical variability

BC 2050s (2041-2070) annual temperature anomalies (°C) from (1961-1990) model baseline. Range from all available AR4 scenarios.

EmissionsEmissionsScenarioScenario

1010thth percentilepercentile

2525thth percentilepercentile

5050thth percentile percentile (median)(median)

7575thth percentilepercentile

9090thth percentilepercentile

B1B1 1.31.3 1.61.6 1.91.9 2.12.1 2.62.6

A2A2 1.41.4 1.81.8 2.02.0 2.52.5 2.92.9

AllAll 1.41.4 1.71.7 2.12.1 2.62.6 3.03.0

T GCM rangeT GCM range T A2-B1T A2-B1 P GCM rangeP GCM range P A2-B1P A2-B1

2050s2050s 1.61.6 0.10.1 11%11% 0%0%

2080s2080s 2.42.4 1.51.5 13%13% 3%3%

Temperature (°C) and Precipitation (% of 1961-1990 model baseline) uncertainty estimates from GCMs and emissions scenarios

2050s range = uncertainty2050s range = uncertainty2080s more emissions 2080s more emissions warmer warmer

Projected warming depends on GCM Projected warming depends on GCM and emissions scenarioand emissions scenario

Columbia Basin winter and summer Columbia Basin winter and summer from GCMs (boxes) + RCM (red)from GCMs (boxes) + RCM (red)

CGCM3 A2 run 4CGCM3 A2 run 4 CRCM 4.1.1 run acs & act forced CRCM 4.1.1 run acs & act forced by CGCM3 A2 run 4by CGCM3 A2 run 4

RCM adds regional detail unavailable RCM adds regional detail unavailable from its driving GCMfrom its driving GCM

Winter temperature increase larger in Winter temperature increase larger in northern portion of Basinnorthern portion of Basin

CRCM 4.1.1 run CRCM 4.1.1 run acs & act acs & act forced by forced by CGCM3 CGCM3 A2 run 4A2 run 4

0-Degree C isotherm almost gone by 0-Degree C isotherm almost gone by 2050s 2050s (CGCM3 A2 run4)(CGCM3 A2 run4)

Increased Growing Degree Days Increased Growing Degree Days (CGCM3 A2 run4)(CGCM3 A2 run4)

Increased suitability for Douglas Fir,Increased suitability for Douglas Fir,decreased suitability for Sprucedecreased suitability for Spruce

(average of 5 projections)(average of 5 projections)

•

Less summer rainfall projected in Less summer rainfall projected in eastern portion of the Basineastern portion of the Basin

CRCM 4.1.1 run CRCM 4.1.1 run acs & act acs & act forced by forced by CGCM3 CGCM3 A2 run 4A2 run 4

Precipitation: likelyPrecipitation: likelywinter increase, summer decreasewinter increase, summer decrease

Columbia Basin winter and summer Columbia Basin winter and summer from GCMs (boxes) + RCM (red)from GCMs (boxes) + RCM (red)

• Climate variabilityClimate variability• Year-to-year variability superimposed on long termYear-to-year variability superimposed on long term• effects of El Nino/La Nina large in Columbia Basineffects of El Nino/La Nina large in Columbia Basin

• Historical trendsHistorical trends• vary spatially, seasonally, and by length of recordvary spatially, seasonally, and by length of record• winter minimum temperatures particularly milderwinter minimum temperatures particularly milder• ∆ ∆ T and P T and P components of hydrologic cycle – snowpack, glaciers, components of hydrologic cycle – snowpack, glaciers,

streamflow & lake icestreamflow & lake ice

• Projections (2050s)Projections (2050s) T (1.6°C to 2.3°C)T (1.6°C to 2.3°C) winter P (+1% to +13%)winter P (+1% to +13%) summer P (-10% to -4%)summer P (-10% to -4%)• GDD, tree species suitability GDD, tree species suitability implications for Himplications for H220 mgmt0 mgmt

SummarySummary

AcknowledgementsAcknowledgementsFinancial support, collaboration, reviewFinancial support, collaboration, review

Trends for Biodiversity Trends for Biodiversity Matt Austin, BC Ministry of EnvironmentMatt Austin, BC Ministry of EnvironmentJenny Fraser, BC Ministry of EnvironmentJenny Fraser, BC Ministry of Environment

Richard Hebda, Royal BC MuseumRichard Hebda, Royal BC MuseumBob Peart, Biodiversity BCBob Peart, Biodiversity BC

Nancy Turner, University of VictoriaNancy Turner, University of Victoria

Climate OverviewClimate OverviewDoug Smith, BC HydroDoug Smith, BC Hydro

Ben Kangasniemi, BC Ministry of EnvironmentBen Kangasniemi, BC Ministry of EnvironmentDave Spittlehouse, BC Ministry of ForestsDave Spittlehouse, BC Ministry of ForestsDan Moore, University of British ColumbiaDan Moore, University of British Columbia

Stewart Cohen, UBC and Environment CanadaStewart Cohen, UBC and Environment CanadaDan Smith, University of VictoriaDan Smith, University of Victoria

Elaine Barrow, ConsultantElaine Barrow, ConsultantSarah Boon, University of LethbridgeSarah Boon, University of LethbridgeAllan Chapman, River Forecast CentreAllan Chapman, River Forecast CentreXuebin Zhang, Environment CanadaXuebin Zhang, Environment Canada

Doug McCollor, BC HydroDoug McCollor, BC HydroPhil Mote, University of WashingtonPhil Mote, University of WashingtonPaul Whitfield, Environment CanadaPaul Whitfield, Environment Canada

Robin Pike, FORREXRobin Pike, FORREX (now Ministry of Forests)(now Ministry of Forests)

Forest Science Program Project Forest Investment Account - Forest Science Program

Richard Hebda, Royal BC MuseumDave Spittlehouse, BC Ministry of Forests

Steve Taylor , Pacific Forestry CentreVince Nealis , Pacific Forestry CentreRene Alfaro, Pacific Forestry Centre

Tongli Wang, University of British ColumbiaKees van Kooten , University of VictoriaAndreas Hamman, University of Alberta

PCIC Research AssociatesKirstin Campbell, Alvaro Montenegro, Alan Mehlenbacher,

Clint Abbott, Kyle Ford, Hamish Aubrey

PCIC StaffDilumie Abeysirigunawardena, Katrina Bennett, Dave Bronaugh, Aquila Flower, Dave Rodenhuis, and Arelia

Werner

Thank youThank you

For more informationFor more information

www.PacificClimate.org Trevor MurdockTrevor Murdock

250.472.4681250.472.4681tmurdock@uvic.ca

PCIC PartnersPCIC Partners

Ice Core Temperature and CO2 levels past 20,000 yrs

Recent CORecent CO2 2 change comparable to change comparable to difference between ice age and nowdifference between ice age and now

Columbia Basin to warm considerably Columbia Basin to warm considerably compared to historical variabilitycompared to historical variability

• BC Temperature Anomalies from (1961-1990)• 15 GCMs

• solid A2• dash B1

CGCM3 A2 run 4CGCM3 A2 run 4 CRCM 4.1.1 run acs & act forced CRCM 4.1.1 run acs & act forced by CGCM3 A2 run 4by CGCM3 A2 run 4

RCM shows regional differences in RCM shows regional differences in projected relative precipitation changeprojected relative precipitation change

Source Source Jennifer Penney Jennifer Penney Clean Air PartnershipClean Air Partnership

Complementary mitigation and adaptation (not trade-offs)

From Impacts to AdaptationFrom Impacts to Adaptation http://adaptation.rncan.gc.ca/assess/2007/index_e.php http://adaptation.rncan.gc.ca/assess/2007/index_e.php

From impacts From impacts to adaptationto adaptation

The following hydrology-related changes may be expected in British Columbia:

• Increased atmospheric evaporative demand• Altered vegetation composition affecting evaporation and interception• Increased stream and lake temperatures• Increased frequency and magnitude of storm events and disturbances • Accelerated melting of permafrost, lake ice, and river ice•Decreased snow accumulation and accelerated snowmelt• Glacier mass balance adjustments•Altered timing and magnitude of streamflow

From impacts From impacts to adaptationto adaptation

T & P changes T & P changes impacts on impacts on drought, landslide, storms, drought, landslide, storms, water supply, power generation,water supply, power generation,infrastructure, health etc.infrastructure, health etc.

Integrate adaptation into Integrate adaptation into individual official community individual official community plans, departmental & agency plans & programsplans, departmental & agency plans & programs

Online “planners interface” to climate change information in Online “planners interface” to climate change information in development. Contact development. Contact jhill@cityspaces.ca

Municipalities can adapt to climate change by mainstreaming climate considerations

PCIC online interface was developed for PCIC online interface was developed for impacts researchersimpacts researchers

Comprehensive Comprehensive assessments involved:assessments involved:

Analysis of current conditions & Analysis of current conditions & stressorsstressors

Review of historical climate Review of historical climate trendstrends

Regional climate change Regional climate change projections projections

Case studies of recent extreme Case studies of recent extreme weather eventsweather events

Analysis of likely impacts by Analysis of likely impacts by sectorsector

Some used formal risk Some used formal risk assessment to prioritize risksassessment to prioritize risks

Source Source Jennifer Penney Jennifer Penney Clean Air PartnershipClean Air Partnership

Assessment of vulnerabilities, risks, impacts, opportunities

Potential for spruce bark beetle Potential for spruce bark beetle outbreaks in colder areas of rangeoutbreaks in colder areas of range

Future StreamflowFuture Streamflow

tmurdock@alumni.uvic.ctmurdock@alumni.uvic.caa

Trevor MurdockTrevor Murdock

Comparison of Historical Variability and Comparison of Historical Variability and Projected ChangeProjected Change

Source: PacificClimate.orgSource: PacificClimate.org

2

1

3

1. Columbia Basin UW/DOE2. BC Environment RFC

Mountain Pine Beetle Study3. BCH Peace River Basin

Climate Change Study

VIC Driving Data, Time Series Average 1961 – 1990 Climatology, Precipitation (mm)

Projecting streamflow using diagnostic Projecting streamflow using diagnostic hydrological model (VIC)hydrological model (VIC)

heating & cooling heating & cooling energy cost energy cost scenarios for 2080 scenarios for 2080 (Royal BC Museum (Royal BC Museum 2005)2005)

Summer coolingbaseline

high change scenario

Winter heatingWinter heatingbaselinebaseline

high change high change scenarioscenario

summer cooling winter heating

• Green Buildings rarely consider local climate, and do not consider future climate

“increasing the attic space insulation from RSI 7.7 to RSI 9.0 in colder areas of the province (4500 and greater degree days)”

• Highest energy efficiency over lifespan of buildings can only be achieved by considering reduced winter heating demand, increased summer cooling demand, and changes to precipitation

•

Adaptation & Green Buildings Greener Buildings