Post on 13-Dec-2015
GHG metrics in the WGIII contribution to the AR5Bonn, 03 April 2012
Jan Minx, Steffen Brunner & Ottmar Edenhofer
johnthescone
IPCC principles•a comprehensive and scientifically sound review of the relevant literature; •the identification of disparate views for which there is significant scientific or technical support; and •a policy-neutral presentation of the scientific content in a manner relevant to policymakers.
Assessment Approach2
Challenges for WGIII assessment:•No scientific resolution of value dissent•Impossible to distinguish facts and values neatly•High potentially fundamental uncertainties associated with long-term policy choices
Implications for WGIII assessment:•Communication of uncertainties both in quantitative and qualitative dimensions•Transparency of contested value-laden assumptions and implicit value judgments
Assessment approach
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IPCC and other scientific assessments
Division of labour at the science-policy interface4
Implementation
Policymakers
Ends Means
Public Debate
Public Debate
Option B
Option C
Option A
Problem Analysis
Public Debate
Evaluation
Public Debate
Adapted from: Edenhofer and Kowarsch, 2012
The WGIII Assessment: Exploring the Solution Space – a mapping exercise
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Goal AGoal C
Goal B
Start
The Four Parts of the AR5 WG III Outline
Part IIntroduction
Part IIntroduction
Part IIFraming Issues
Part IIFraming Issues
Part IIIPathways for Mitigating Climate Change
Part IIIPathways for Mitigating Climate Change
Part IVAssessment of Policies, Institutions and Finance
Part IVAssessment of Policies, Institutions and Finance
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The Working Group III Assessment as a Cartography Exercise
Part IIntroductionPart IIntroduction
Part IIFraming IssuesPart IIFraming Issues
Part IIIPathways for Mitigating Climate Change
Part IIIPathways for Mitigating Climate Change
Part IVAssessment of Policies,Institutions and Finance
Part IVAssessment of Policies,Institutions and Finance
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The legend to the map:Explain concepts and methods of assessment
The map:Map out feasible mitigation optionAssess trade-offs
Navigation tools:Assess policy instruments, institutional arrangements and finance options
AR5 WG III Outline 1. Introductory Chapter
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2. Integrated Risk and Uncertainty Assessment of Climate Change Response Policies
3. Social, Economic and Ethical Concepts and Methods
4. Sustainable Development and Equity
5. Drivers, Trends and Mitigation
6. Assessing Transformation Pathways
7. Energy Systems
8. Transport
9. Buildings
10. Industry
11. Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU)
12. Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Spatial Planning
13. International Cooperation: Agreements and Instruments
14. Regional Development and Cooperation
15. National and Sub-national Policies and Institutions
16. Cross-cutting Investment and Finance Issues
IV: Assessment of Policies, Institutions and Finance
III: Pathways for Mitigating Climate Change
II: Framing Issues
I: Introduction
No dedicated chapter or Section on metrics in the Plenary approved Working
Group III outline of the AR5
Where will metrics be covered? 1. Introductory Chapter
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2. Integrated Risk and Uncertainty Assessment of Climate Change Response Policies
3. Social, Economic and Ethical Concepts and Methods
4. Sustainable Development and Equity
5. Drivers, Trends and Mitigation
6. Assessing Transformation Pathways
7. Energy Systems
8. Transport
9. Buildings
10. Industry
11. Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU)
12. Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Spatial Planning
13. International Cooperation: Agreements and Instruments
14. Regional Development and Cooperation
15. National and Sub-national Policies and Institutions
16. Cross-cutting Investment and Finance Issues
IV: Assessment of Policies, Institutions and Finance
III: Pathways for Mitigating Climate Change
II: Framing Issues
I: Introduction
• Be explicit about how metrics are used• Conceputal clarification of alternative emission
metrics and their relationships – including both physical and more comprehensive economic metrics
• Communicate underlying uncertainties and value judgments
• Establish relationship alternative emission metrics to purpose of analysis
• Quantiative comparisons and/or assessment of numerical values for alternative metrics as appropriate
Assessment of metrics in context of WGIII contribution to AR5
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