Prof. Dr. Ottmar Edenhofer€¦ · Prof. Dr. Ottmar Edenhofer ... Mitigation and Adaptation. 2...
Transcript of Prof. Dr. Ottmar Edenhofer€¦ · Prof. Dr. Ottmar Edenhofer ... Mitigation and Adaptation. 2...
Prof. Dr. Ottmar Edenhofer
Our Common FutureHannover, 4th November 2010
Volkswagen Stiftung
Mitigation and Adaptation
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Tipping Points in the Earth System
T. M. Lenton & H. J. Schellnhuber (Nature Reports Climate Change, 2007)
Potential policy-relevant tipping elements that could be triggered by global warming this century, with shadingindicating their uncertain thresholds. For each threshold, the transition from white to yellow indicates a lower bound on its proximity, and the transition from yellow to red, an upper bound. The degree of uncertainty isrepresented by the spread of the colour transition.
Burning Embers
T. M. Lenton & H. J. Schellnhuber (Nature Reports Climate Change, 2007)
Year 2100range
(IPCC 2007)
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World Map of Wealth
Capital stock per personvery low
lowmedium
highvery high
Source: Füssel (2007)
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Source: Füssel (2007)
World Map of Carbon Debt
Carbon emissions per person from fossil fuel burning (1950-2003)very low
lowmedium
highvery high
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Carbon Debt and Wealth
103
104
105
101
102
103
104
Brazil
Mexico
Ethiopia
Russia
Egypt
France
Germany United States
India
Bangladesh
China
Japan South Africa
K: Capital stock (US$2000 per person)
P: F
ossi
l CO 2 e
mis
sion
s (k
g C
per
per
son
and
year
)
Fitting line: ln P=0.987 ln K+c
Source: Füssel (2007)
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The Economics of Atmospheric Stabilisation
3 stabilisation targets with different probabilities to reach the 2° target: 550ppm-eq, 450ppm-eq, 400ppm-eq
550ppm-eq 450ppm-eq 400ppm-eqBaseline
Negative emissions
~75% prob.~50% prob.~15% prob.
Energy-related CO2 emissions
Knopf, Edenhofer et al. (2009)Year
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The Great Transformation
Prim
ary
Ene
rgy
Con
sum
ptio
n[E
J]
CO2emissions
Negative CO2emissions
Based on IEA Data (1971-2005) and REMIND-R resultsfor 450ppm-eq (ADAM); Graphic by Steckel/Knopf (PIK)
REMIND-R, ADAM 450ppm-eq, 4/6/2009, Steckel/Knopf
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Technology Options for Low Stabilisation
xx xx
high biomass potentialwith all optionsno nuclear beyond baselinelow biomass potentialno CCS no renewables beyond baseline
550ppm-eq 400ppm-eq
xxx
400 ppm neither achievable without CCS nor without an extension of renewables
Biomass potential dominates the mitigation costs of low stabilisation Nuclear is not important beyond its (high) use in the baseline
Knopf, Edenhofer et al. (2009)
10Rogelj, Meinshausen et al. 2010
Copenhagen Pledges – Not Enough for 2°C
11Source: IMF International Commodities Database
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Renaissance of Coal
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Dev
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t Pol
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Avo
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Def
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Clim
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frie
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Te
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Lim
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Tr
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Global Deal
Effectiveness – Efficiency – Equity
Ada
ptat
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Dev
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t Pol
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Avo
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Def
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Clim
ate-
frie
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Te
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logi
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Lim
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2
Global Deal
Effectiveness – Efficiency – Equity
Ada
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Lim
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and
Tr
adin
g of
CO
2
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The Supply-side of Global Warming
Cumulative historic carbon consumption (1750-2004), estimated carbon stocks in the ground, and estimated future consumption (2005-2100) for business-as-usual (BAU) and ambitious 400-ppm-CO2-eq. scenario
Source: Kalkuhl, Edenhofer and Lessmann, 2009
13210655377139
2581581
154111154198
107
210
230
558
5616
2000
0
2000
Car
bon
stoc
ks (G
tC)
Conventional reserves Unconventional reserves Conventional resourcesUnconventional resources Cumulative historic use Projected use (400ppm)Coal+CCS (400ppm) Biomass+CCS (400ppm) Additional projected use (BAU)
I n
t h e
g
r o
u n
d I n
t h
e
a t
m o
s p
h e
r e
11372
Gas Oil Coal Biomass + CCS
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Atmosphere as a Global Common
• Atmosphere is a scarce resource – fossil carbon is not• Economic approach to deal with scarcity in an efficient way:
– Establish prices on scarcities
• How to determine scarcity price on carbon?– Assigning property rights according to the scarcity of the atmosphere– Distributing the emission rights according to principles of fairness and justice
Resource Extraction
> 12.000 GtC
Atmosphere as a limited resource
~ 230 GtC
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Allocation of Emission Rights
Knopf et al. 2010Consumption losses [%]
USAJapan
EuropeRussia
Middle EastLatin AmericaAsia (Others)
ChinaIndia
Sub-Sahara AfricaRest of the World
World
Per capitaPer GDPC&C: Contraction & ConvergenceC&C with histor. ResponsibilityCDC: Common but Differentiated
Convergence
lossesgains
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Dev
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t Pol
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Avo
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Def
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Clim
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Te
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Global Deal
Effectiveness – Efficiency – Equity
Ada
ptat
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Clim
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frie
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Te
chno
logi
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R&D-Investment in Energy Technologies
Source: Updated version of IPCC (2007), AR4
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New Storage Technologies
Andasol I, Spain
Andasol I, Spain
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Dev
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Avo
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Def
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Clim
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Te
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Lim
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CO
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Global Deal
Effectiveness – Efficiency – Equity
Ada
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Avo
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Def
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Reducing Deforestation: Fossil vs. LUCF CO2 Emissions
CO2 emissions per person and year, 1950 - 2003
CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production,and including land use change (kg C per person and year from 1950 - 2003)
-1000 - 00 - 100100 - 1000
1000 - 20002000 - 50005000 - 15000 Emissions per year from land use change
Emissions per year from fossil fuel combustion and cement productionRatio
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Cancun - Better REDD than dead?
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Agriculture versus Forest Protection
DemandFood, Bioenergy
DemandForests
$ $
Available Land
Agricultural land Forests
• Agriculture and forest protectioncompete forscarce land
• Optimal allocationof available land
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DemandFood, Bioenergy
DemandForests
$ $
Available Land Agricultural land Forests
REDD
• REDD protectsforests
Agriculture versus Forest Protection
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Source: IMF; FAO International Commodity Prices
Source: BP Statistical Energy Review; WRI
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$ $
Agri-cultureprices
• Rising agriculturalprices (oil price, food, bioenergy) counter the effectof REDD programs
• Higher prices forforest protection!
Agriculture versus Forest Protection
DemandFood, Bioenergy
DemandForests
Available Land
Agricultural land Forests
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Supposed Effects
• Costs of REDD are underestimated
• Proposed fund solutions would have to stabilize the price on a high level to compensate the effects of rising oil prices. This is politically unlikely
• Including forests into fragmented emission trading systemscan thus lead to higher deforestation rates than a comprehensive fund approach
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Dev
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Global Deal
Effectiveness – Efficiency – Equity
Ada
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Ada
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Change of agricultural production (all crops) in percent due to yield changes as a result of climate change between 1990 and 2050
Source: Müller et al. 2010
- 40
- 20
+ 20
+ 40
0
Agricultural Productivity
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Dev
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Clim
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Te
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CO
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Global Deal
Effectiveness – Efficiency – Equity
Ada
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Dev
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Allocation of Emission Rights
Knopf et al. 2010Consumption losses [%]
USAJapan
EuropeRussia
Middle EastLatin AmericaAsia (Others)
ChinaIndia
Sub-Sahara AfricaRest of the World
World
Per capitaPer GDPC&C: Contraction & ConvergenceC&C with histor. ResponsibilityCDC: Common but Differentiated
Convergence
lossesgains
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Dev
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Avo
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Def
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Clim
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Te
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Lim
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Tr
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CO
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Global Deal
Effectiveness – Efficiency – Equity
Ada
ptat
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Book Cover
http://www.klima-und-gerechtigkeit.de/