GHG metrics in the WGIII contribution to the AR5Bonn, 03 April 2012

Jan Minx, Steffen Brunner & Ottmar Edenhofer

johnthescone

IPCC principles•a comprehensive and scientifically sound review of the relevant literature; •the identification of disparate views for which there is significant scientific or technical support; and •a policy-neutral presentation of the scientific content in a manner relevant to policymakers.

Assessment Approach2

Challenges for WGIII assessment:•No scientific resolution of value dissent•Impossible to distinguish facts and values neatly•High potentially fundamental uncertainties associated with long-term policy choices

Implications for WGIII assessment:•Communication of uncertainties both in quantitative and qualitative dimensions•Transparency of contested value-laden assumptions and implicit value judgments

Assessment approach

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IPCC and other scientific assessments

Division of labour at the science-policy interface4

Implementation

Policymakers

Ends Means

Public Debate

Public Debate

Option B

Option C

Option A

Problem Analysis

Public Debate

Evaluation

Public Debate

Adapted from: Edenhofer and Kowarsch, 2012

The WGIII Assessment: Exploring the Solution Space – a mapping exercise

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Goal AGoal C

Goal B

Start

The Four Parts of the AR5 WG III Outline

Part IIntroduction

Part IIntroduction

Part IIFraming Issues

Part IIFraming Issues

Part IIIPathways for Mitigating Climate Change

Part IIIPathways for Mitigating Climate Change

Part IVAssessment of Policies, Institutions and Finance

Part IVAssessment of Policies, Institutions and Finance

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The Working Group III Assessment as a Cartography Exercise

Part IIntroductionPart IIntroduction

Part IIFraming IssuesPart IIFraming Issues

Part IIIPathways for Mitigating Climate Change

Part IIIPathways for Mitigating Climate Change

Part IVAssessment of Policies,Institutions and Finance

Part IVAssessment of Policies,Institutions and Finance

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The legend to the map:Explain concepts and methods of assessment

The map:Map out feasible mitigation optionAssess trade-offs

Navigation tools:Assess policy instruments, institutional arrangements and finance options

AR5 WG III Outline 1. Introductory Chapter

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2. Integrated Risk and Uncertainty Assessment of Climate Change Response Policies

3. Social, Economic and Ethical Concepts and Methods

4. Sustainable Development and Equity

5. Drivers, Trends and Mitigation

6. Assessing Transformation Pathways

7. Energy Systems

8. Transport

9. Buildings

10. Industry

11. Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU)

12. Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Spatial Planning

13. International Cooperation: Agreements and Instruments

14. Regional Development and Cooperation

15. National and Sub-national Policies and Institutions

16. Cross-cutting Investment and Finance Issues

IV: Assessment of Policies, Institutions and Finance

III: Pathways for Mitigating Climate Change

II: Framing Issues

I: Introduction

No dedicated chapter or Section on metrics in the Plenary approved Working

Group III outline of the AR5

Where will metrics be covered? 1. Introductory Chapter

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2. Integrated Risk and Uncertainty Assessment of Climate Change Response Policies

3. Social, Economic and Ethical Concepts and Methods

4. Sustainable Development and Equity

5. Drivers, Trends and Mitigation

6. Assessing Transformation Pathways

7. Energy Systems

8. Transport

9. Buildings

10. Industry

11. Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU)

12. Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Spatial Planning

13. International Cooperation: Agreements and Instruments

14. Regional Development and Cooperation

15. National and Sub-national Policies and Institutions

16. Cross-cutting Investment and Finance Issues

IV: Assessment of Policies, Institutions and Finance

III: Pathways for Mitigating Climate Change

II: Framing Issues

I: Introduction

• Be explicit about how metrics are used• Conceputal clarification of alternative emission

metrics and their relationships – including both physical and more comprehensive economic metrics

• Communicate underlying uncertainties and value judgments

• Establish relationship alternative emission metrics to purpose of analysis

• Quantiative comparisons and/or assessment of numerical values for alternative metrics as appropriate

Assessment of metrics in context of WGIII contribution to AR5

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Thank you for your attention!