ASEAN + 3 WORKSHOP

Climate Change & Food Security in Coasts and Deltas

Nguyen Huu Ninh Center for Environment Research, Education & Development

(Viet Nam)

cered@vnn.vn

Beijing, 29-31 March 2011

Climate Insecurity – Why and How its Affecting Us NOW?

Deltas most vulnerable to Climate Change IPCC 4th Assessment – Climate Change 2007 Synthesis Report

TIME honors… The planet in 1988 The climate system in future?

River deltas are valuable: provide food to the world

underpin economies

sustain biodiversity

home to many people River deltas are vulnerable: pollution

urbanization

flooding and drought

land subsidence and erosion

overall loss of environmental quality

And pressures are increasing: economic growth

population growth

climate change

pressure on space

flood vulnerability

freshwater shortage

ageing or inadequate infrastructure coastal erosion

loss of environmental quality and biodiversity

Yangtze River Delta (China) **** ** *** * * ****Mekong River Delta (Vietnam) ** **** **** ** * ***Ganges-Brahmaputra Delta (Bangladesh) **** **** ** ** **** ****Ciliwung River Delta (Indonesia) **** **** ** ** * ****Mahakam River Delta (Indonesia) ** *** *** ** *** ***

Nile River Delta (Egypt) **** * **** **** ** **Rhine River Delta (Netherlands) *** ** ** *** ** *Mississippi River Delta (USA) * **** * **** **** ****California Delta and Bay (USA) ** **** **** *** * ***Pantanal Inland Delta (Brazil)

**********

issues

deltas

relatively minor problem, now and in the near future

currently already a big problem, future trend uncertain

currently a minor problem, but is likely to increase in the near future

currently already a big problem, likely to increase in the near future

Deltas are facing many similar challenges (Source: Delta Alliance, 2011)

All Climate Hazards Index

The Mekong River: A priceless natural resource •The Mekong River threads mainland Southeast Asia together

•12th longest River in the world

•60 million people live within the Lower Mekong River Basin

•Provides food security for hundreds millions and high economic value

Mekong River’s fisheries are central to regional economy and food security

•Mekong supports world largest inland fisheries •First catch value is US$2-3 billion •Economic value is up to US$9,4 billion •64-93% of rural households are involved in fisheries •Consumption of fish/aquatic animals contribute 50-80% of animal protein intake •Fish are central to nutrition and food security for the 60 million people in the Lower Mekong Basin

ABOUT THE MEKONG DELTA (VIET NAM)

But highly vulnerable- Population density

Agriculture production

13

Temperature Rainfall

Clim

ate

chan

ge in

the

Mek

ong

CC projection: temperature (ºC) & precipitation(%) during 2010–2050 compared to 1985–2000

Water level rise assumptions

0.6 m 1m 1.4 m 1.8 m 2.2 m 2.6 m

Total current area : 40,600 km2 Lost area (km2) 2 626 6036 12,867 28,034 37,629 Total current population: 17,695,000 people Population affected (people)

713 278.219 2.682.455 5.718.124 12.458.456 16.722.412

Total current rice area : 20,855.2 km 2 Lost area (km2) 2 380 3027 6541 14,920 20,719 Total current food production: 20,021,016 tons Lost production (tons)

1667 364,916 2,906,267 6,280,210 14,323,933 19,890,808

Land Resource Department, College of Environment & Natural Resources, Cantho University

The assumptions of social and economic factors affected by the increasing of inland water level in

Mekong Delta

Land Resource Department, College of Environment & Natural Resources, Cantho University

Increased sanility’s intrusion

High risk of increased temperature

Reduced annual rainfall distribution

Change of annual precipitation in the future

Overview of the impacts

Impacts on food security

(rice production)

Shortage of water for rice production

Food security: changes in rainfall and yield in LMB (B2), crop modeling results

Food security for the country

Fishery production

26

Target region & aquaculture systems The Mekong River delta accounts for 80% of Vietnam’s total shrimp production; 76% of total fish production in 2008

Pond culture systems:

Freshwater catfish (Pangasianodon hypophthalmus)

• Inland and “coastal” provinces

Black tiger shrimp (Penaeus monodon)

• (Improved) extensive and semi-intensive/intensive scale

Sensitivity to CC; affected production costs Aquaculture system Climate change effect on

production Costs affected by climate change

Coastal catfish Decreased survival rate and longer growing period lower total production per year

feed, pond preparation, dyke upgrade, infrastructure damage medicine/chemical, fuel/electricity, pond construction, pumping equipment

Inland catfish feed, seed, dyke upgrade, labour, fuel/electricity, pond construction, pumping equipment, infrastructure damage

Semi-intensive/intensive shrimp

Decreased survival rate, partly offset by improved grow-out techniques. lower yield and production

feed, dyke upgrade, medicine/chemical, fuel/electricity, pond construction, pumping equipment, infrastructure damage

Extensive shrimp Increased survival rate and possible increase in aquaculture area higher yield and production

dyke upgrade, seed cost, pond preparation, fuel/electricity, pond construction, pumping equipment, infrastructure damage

27

Items 2007 2010 2015 2020 2030 Total demand 43.7 47.0 50.3 53.2 58.3 1. Corn 5.0 6.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 2. Paddy rice, in which:

29.2 31.1 32.1 35.2 37.3

-Seed 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.8 - Animal and loss 6.4 7.0 7.5 8.5 9.0 - processing 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.0 - Food and reserve 21.5 22.7 23.1 24.7 26.5 3. Cassava 8.0 8.5 9.0 10.0 10.0 4. Sweet potato 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.0 1.0

Forecasted demand of food in Vienam up to 2030 Unit: Mil tons

1981

1982

1983 1985

1986

1987

1988

1989 1990

1984

1992

2000

200220072004

2005

2006

2003

2,0

2,1

2,2

2,3

2,4

2,5

2,6

2,7

2,8

2,9

3,0

23,5 24,0 24,5 25,0 25,5

Det

rend

ed ri

ce y

ield

in M

ekon

g de

lta

(Ton

nes/

Ha)

Average daily minimum temperature ( C)

1991

Productivity loss = - 0.15 T ha-1 °C-1

Rice productivity loss due to CC in Mekong delta not mitigated by technological trend

1981 - 1992 2000 - 2007 Climate Change – Loss of productivity in Vietnam

(data source : FAOSTAT and www.tutiempo.net)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

0

5 000 000

10 000 000

15 000 000

20 000 000

25 000 000

30 000 000

35 000 000

40 000 000

45 000 000

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

Production (T)

Harvested area (Ha)

Yield (T/Ha)

Rice production, area and productivity in Vietnam

(data source : FAOSTAT)

Actual situation : Increasing production, decreasing cultivated areas

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

0

5 000 000

10 000 000

15 000 000

20 000 000

25 000 000

30 000 000

35 000 000

40 000 000

45 000 000

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

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1975

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1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

Production (T)

Planned production for 2020 (T)

Rice production, area and productivity in Vietnam

(data source : FAOSTAT)

Production planned to reach 42 million tons in 2020

Low water & drought in Mekong early 2010:

What next??

Basin development plan (BDP)

Hydropower Irrigation

EAST SEA

WEST SEA

Structural measures

Rice – Shrimp/Fish

Fruit – Shrimp/Fish

Forest – Shrimp/Fish

Core zone Buffer zone Canal Canal

Dyke

Non - structural measures

Options of combination

1. Awareness on food security is still limited; legislative documents on food security is lacking; rice land is not strictly managed 2. High production cost, less sustainable agricultural practices, frequently damaged by natural disaster 3. Wide variation level of food per capital among region, some regions is food insecurity; food consumption structure is imbalance in terms of nutrition 4. Poor infrastructure, especially irrigation and transport in mountainous area; storage facility for rice in the Mekong 5. Domestic food distribution channel is long and inefficient due to high expenses for middlemen 6. Policy on food security is incomplete

Limitations in production and supply food in Vietnam

Conclusion remarks 1. The Mekong Delta is ready suffering and will be one of the most vulnerable areas with specific impacts of climate change.

2. Usually structural measures are considered first. However sea level rise is not tsunami! These options should be based on existing infrastructure and consideration of slow and long-term variations of sea level and climate change.

3. Combination of structural and non-structural options (flexible, low cost, easy implemented) should be explored.

4. Improving rice tolerance of submergence and salinity to cope with climate change in deltas and coastal areas.

5. Improving aquaculture/fishery in space and time to cope with climate change in deltas and coastal areas.

6.Food security relies on right policies and cooperations of the governments in the region and international organizations.

Thank you cered@vnn.vn