Climate Change & Food Security in Coasts and Deltas · Inland catfish . feed, seed, dyke upgrade,...
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ASEAN + 3 WORKSHOP Climate Change & Food Security in Coasts and Deltas Nguyen Huu Ninh Center for Environment Research, Education & Development (Viet Nam) [email protected] Beijing, 29-31 March 2011
Transcript of Climate Change & Food Security in Coasts and Deltas · Inland catfish . feed, seed, dyke upgrade,...
ASEAN + 3 WORKSHOP
Climate Change & Food Security in Coasts and Deltas
Nguyen Huu Ninh Center for Environment Research, Education & Development
(Viet Nam)
Beijing, 29-31 March 2011
Climate Insecurity – Why and How its Affecting Us NOW?
Deltas most vulnerable to Climate Change IPCC 4th Assessment – Climate Change 2007 Synthesis Report
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Welcome everyone and thank you for being here
TIME honors… The planet in 1988 The climate system in future?
River deltas are valuable: provide food to the world
underpin economies
sustain biodiversity
home to many people River deltas are vulnerable: pollution
urbanization
flooding and drought
land subsidence and erosion
overall loss of environmental quality
And pressures are increasing: economic growth
population growth
climate change
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Food basket of nations – provide some of the world’s most fertile agricultural land and productive fisheries Often the economic power house of a nation. Strategic location linking the interior of nations to seas and the world – provide tremendous opportunities. More than half the global GDP generated within the coastal zone. Deltas are among the most productive ecosystems on earth – precious to life. Rivers provide fresh water and nutrients, critical for sustaining life in the delta and oceans. The unique mixture of saline and fresh water in deltas create conditions for unique flora and fauna. Deltas are highly sensitive to even small changes in sea level. ¾ of global population lives in the coastal zone, over 500 million in river deltas - over 200 million in the Ganges, Nile and Mekong deltas alone. Cradles of civilization. We see the rapid growth of coastal mega-cities. People want stability – this causes tension with the natural dynamism which characterizes river deltas – they are often reconfigured by the natural processes by which deltas maintain themselves. Many deltas have also been dramatically transformed by the actions of people – deliberate transformations to try to stabilize deltas, as well as unintended transformations. The aspects that make deltas attractive places to live and work are being threatened. Regular catastrophes with tragic impact on human beings, on ecology and on economies. Action is acutely needed now to address these issues.
pressure on space
flood vulnerability
freshwater shortage
ageing or inadequate infrastructure coastal erosion
loss of environmental quality and biodiversity
Yangtze River Delta (China) **** ** *** * * ****Mekong River Delta (Vietnam) ** **** **** ** * ***Ganges-Brahmaputra Delta (Bangladesh) **** **** ** ** **** ****Ciliwung River Delta (Indonesia) **** **** ** ** * ****Mahakam River Delta (Indonesia) ** *** *** ** *** ***
Nile River Delta (Egypt) **** * **** **** ** **Rhine River Delta (Netherlands) *** ** ** *** ** *Mississippi River Delta (USA) * **** * **** **** ****California Delta and Bay (USA) ** **** **** *** * ***Pantanal Inland Delta (Brazil)
**********
issues
deltas
relatively minor problem, now and in the near future
currently already a big problem, future trend uncertain
currently a minor problem, but is likely to increase in the near future
currently already a big problem, likely to increase in the near future
Deltas are facing many similar challenges (Source: Delta Alliance, 2011)
All Climate Hazards Index
The Mekong River: A priceless natural resource •The Mekong River threads mainland Southeast Asia together
•12th longest River in the world
•60 million people live within the Lower Mekong River Basin
•Provides food security for hundreds millions and high economic value
Mekong River’s fisheries are central to regional economy and food security
•Mekong supports world largest inland fisheries •First catch value is US$2-3 billion •Economic value is up to US$9,4 billion •64-93% of rural households are involved in fisheries •Consumption of fish/aquatic animals contribute 50-80% of animal protein intake •Fish are central to nutrition and food security for the 60 million people in the Lower Mekong Basin
ABOUT THE MEKONG DELTA (VIET NAM)
But highly vulnerable- Population density
Agriculture production
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Temperature Rainfall
Clim
ate
chan
ge in
the
Mek
ong
CC projection: temperature (ºC) & precipitation(%) during 2010–2050 compared to 1985–2000
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Dr. Tran-Mai KIEN & Dr. Chanon Thaicharoen Climate Change and Adaptation Initiative (CCAI) Mekong River Commission
Water level rise assumptions
0.6 m 1m 1.4 m 1.8 m 2.2 m 2.6 m
Total current area : 40,600 km2 Lost area (km2) 2 626 6036 12,867 28,034 37,629 Total current population: 17,695,000 people Population affected (people)
713 278.219 2.682.455 5.718.124 12.458.456 16.722.412
Total current rice area : 20,855.2 km 2 Lost area (km2) 2 380 3027 6541 14,920 20,719 Total current food production: 20,021,016 tons Lost production (tons)
1667 364,916 2,906,267 6,280,210 14,323,933 19,890,808
Land Resource Department, College of Environment & Natural Resources, Cantho University
The assumptions of social and economic factors affected by the increasing of inland water level in
Mekong Delta
Land Resource Department, College of Environment & Natural Resources, Cantho University
Increased sanility’s intrusion
High risk of increased temperature
Reduced annual rainfall distribution
Change of annual precipitation in the future
Overview of the impacts
Impacts on food security
(rice production)
Shortage of water for rice production
Food security: changes in rainfall and yield in LMB (B2), crop modeling results
Food security for the country
Fishery production
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Target region & aquaculture systems The Mekong River delta accounts for 80% of Vietnam’s total shrimp production; 76% of total fish production in 2008
Pond culture systems:
Freshwater catfish (Pangasianodon hypophthalmus)
• Inland and “coastal” provinces
Black tiger shrimp (Penaeus monodon)
• (Improved) extensive and semi-intensive/intensive scale
Sensitivity to CC; affected production costs Aquaculture system Climate change effect on
production Costs affected by climate change
Coastal catfish Decreased survival rate and longer growing period lower total production per year
feed, pond preparation, dyke upgrade, infrastructure damage medicine/chemical, fuel/electricity, pond construction, pumping equipment
Inland catfish feed, seed, dyke upgrade, labour, fuel/electricity, pond construction, pumping equipment, infrastructure damage
Semi-intensive/intensive shrimp
Decreased survival rate, partly offset by improved grow-out techniques. lower yield and production
feed, dyke upgrade, medicine/chemical, fuel/electricity, pond construction, pumping equipment, infrastructure damage
Extensive shrimp Increased survival rate and possible increase in aquaculture area higher yield and production
dyke upgrade, seed cost, pond preparation, fuel/electricity, pond construction, pumping equipment, infrastructure damage
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Items 2007 2010 2015 2020 2030 Total demand 43.7 47.0 50.3 53.2 58.3 1. Corn 5.0 6.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 2. Paddy rice, in which:
29.2 31.1 32.1 35.2 37.3
-Seed 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.8 - Animal and loss 6.4 7.0 7.5 8.5 9.0 - processing 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.0 - Food and reserve 21.5 22.7 23.1 24.7 26.5 3. Cassava 8.0 8.5 9.0 10.0 10.0 4. Sweet potato 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.0 1.0
Forecasted demand of food in Vienam up to 2030 Unit: Mil tons
1981
1982
1983 1985
1986
1987
1988
1989 1990
1984
1992
2000
200220072004
2005
2006
2003
2,0
2,1
2,2
2,3
2,4
2,5
2,6
2,7
2,8
2,9
3,0
23,5 24,0 24,5 25,0 25,5
Det
rend
ed ri
ce y
ield
in M
ekon
g de
lta
(Ton
nes/
Ha)
Average daily minimum temperature ( C)
1991
Productivity loss = - 0.15 T ha-1 °C-1
Rice productivity loss due to CC in Mekong delta not mitigated by technological trend
1981 - 1992 2000 - 2007 Climate Change – Loss of productivity in Vietnam
(data source : FAOSTAT and www.tutiempo.net)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
5 000 000
10 000 000
15 000 000
20 000 000
25 000 000
30 000 000
35 000 000
40 000 000
45 000 000
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
Production (T)
Harvested area (Ha)
Yield (T/Ha)
Rice production, area and productivity in Vietnam
(data source : FAOSTAT)
Actual situation : Increasing production, decreasing cultivated areas
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
5 000 000
10 000 000
15 000 000
20 000 000
25 000 000
30 000 000
35 000 000
40 000 000
45 000 000
1961
1963
1965
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1971
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1983
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1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
Production (T)
Planned production for 2020 (T)
Rice production, area and productivity in Vietnam
(data source : FAOSTAT)
Production planned to reach 42 million tons in 2020
Low water & drought in Mekong early 2010:
What next??
Basin development plan (BDP)
Hydropower Irrigation
EAST SEA
WEST SEA
Structural measures
Rice – Shrimp/Fish
Fruit – Shrimp/Fish
Forest – Shrimp/Fish
Core zone Buffer zone Canal Canal
Dyke
Non - structural measures
Options of combination
1. Awareness on food security is still limited; legislative documents on food security is lacking; rice land is not strictly managed 2. High production cost, less sustainable agricultural practices, frequently damaged by natural disaster 3. Wide variation level of food per capital among region, some regions is food insecurity; food consumption structure is imbalance in terms of nutrition 4. Poor infrastructure, especially irrigation and transport in mountainous area; storage facility for rice in the Mekong 5. Domestic food distribution channel is long and inefficient due to high expenses for middlemen 6. Policy on food security is incomplete
Limitations in production and supply food in Vietnam
Conclusion remarks 1. The Mekong Delta is ready suffering and will be one of the most vulnerable areas with specific impacts of climate change.
2. Usually structural measures are considered first. However sea level rise is not tsunami! These options should be based on existing infrastructure and consideration of slow and long-term variations of sea level and climate change.
3. Combination of structural and non-structural options (flexible, low cost, easy implemented) should be explored.
4. Improving rice tolerance of submergence and salinity to cope with climate change in deltas and coastal areas.
5. Improving aquaculture/fishery in space and time to cope with climate change in deltas and coastal areas.
6.Food security relies on right policies and cooperations of the governments in the region and international organizations.
Thank you [email protected]
