Post on 15-Dec-2015
Risk Factors for Conflict
• Competition for scarce resources• Migration• Partial social structures/gov’t control• Demographic & economic inequities • Gender inequality, youth bulge/unemployment• Abundance of lootable resources
Slide c/o CL Parker, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 2013
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How Climate Change Affects Environmental Resources
Climate Change
Deforestation
Degradation of farm land
erosion, nutrient depletion,
compacting, salinization, loss to urbanization
↑ runoff rates
Changed hydro cycles
transpiration rates, soil moisture, precipitation
patterns
Erosion, silting
More frequent droughts,
floods
Sea level riseExtreme weather
events
Infestation
Reduced irrigation capacity
Overuse, pollution of
water supplies
Coastal flooding, damage
water, food
Adapted from Homer-Dixon 1999
Slide c/o CL Parker, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 2013
Water Availability
• 2.3 billion people live in water stressed areas
• 1.7 billion live in water scarce areas*
By 2025: 3.5 billion people projected to live in water stressed areas• 2.4 billion in water
scarce areas*
By 2100: 1/3 world risk of extreme drought**
Slide c/o CL Parker, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 2013
*UNEP // **Burke et.al. Journal of Hydrometeorology Sept. 2006
Food Supply and Climate Change
• Grain yields by 10% for every 1°C in global average surface T°
• 2°C to 3°C likely; 3°C to 5°C possible• Therefore 20% to 30% likely;• 30% to 50% possible
5Slide c/o CL Parker, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 2013
Syria
• Pop: 22 million• Size of N. Dakota• Hot and dry in summer, rainy and mild in winter• Was a middle income developing country• 11% below the poverty line (0.06% less than U.S.)• 10% of pop in 2007 were refugees (Iraqi, Palestinian,
Lebanese)• Repressive government/some corruption
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Syria Vegetation Health Index
http://www.preventionweb.net/english/hyogo/gar/2011/en/bgdocs_Erian_Katlan_&_Babah_2010.pdf
From 2006 to 2011:• 60 percent of land affected by
drought • 1 million in 2007 with (75%)
crop loss• Herders sold animals for 60-
70% below original price• Required wheat importation
for first time.• Sandstorms were happening
up to twice a week.
Drought drives significant percentage of 1.3 million who lost 75% of crop in 2007 off land to cities.
Did this cause the civil war?
Global Food Production
Individual Food
SupplyDistribution
Access
CLIMATE CHANGE
AdaptationResilience vs Vulnerability
The Global Food System and Climate Change
Global Food
Supply
ResourcesLandWaterEnergySoilLabor
SectorsAgricultureLivestockWild FisheriesAquaculture
Global Food Production
SectorsAgricultureLivestockWild FisheriesAquaculture
ResourcesLandWaterEnergySoilLabor
Meat consumption PopulationTechnology ConflictPolicies Poverty/InequalityEconomic Development IncomeFood Prices Food Aid
Social, Political & Economic Factors
?
Slide c/o CL Parker, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 2013
S M Hsiang et al. Science 2013;341:1235367
Quantifying the Influence of Climate on Human Conflict
• 60 quantitative studies• Associations between
climate variables and conflict over time
Hsiang conclusions: Personal Violence/Crime
and Climate
• More violent behavior in high temperature climates.
• In low-income settings, extreme rainfall events that adversely affect agricultural income are associated with higher rates of personal violence and property crime.
• High temperatures associated with increased property crime, but most with violent crimes
Group-Level Violence and Political Instability
• Intergroup political conflict increases in low-income areas with• Low water availability• Very low temperatures• Very high temperatures.
• Political conflicts often have a direct link a to climate-induced changes in income.
• Reports of effect of climate on conflict is relatively standard: consistent with 35 studies of modern data
and 28 other studies of intergroup conflict.
Slide c/oCL Parker, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 2013
• Kenya: deforestation less rain and more run-off water scarcity hundreds killed in inter-ethnic water wars
• Most water conflict has been intra-national
Gleick’s typology of historicalwater conflicts:
• Control of Water Resources: water supplies or access are at the root of tensions
• Military Target: where water resources/systems are targets of military actions by nations or states
• Military Tool: water resources/systems used as a weapon during a military action
• Political Tool: water resources/systems themselves used for a political goal
• Terrorism: water resources/systems are targets or tools of violence or coercion by non-state actors
• Development Disputes: water resources/systems are a major source of contention/dispute in context of economic development
Slide c/o CL Parker, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 2013
www.pacinst.org
Environmental Scarcity and Conflict
Slide c/o CL Parker, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of
Public Health, 2013
Population growth
“Demand-induced scarcity”
Unequal resource access
“Structure-induced scarcity”
Increased environmental
scarcity
Migration, expulsion
Decreased economic
productivity
Weakened states
Ethnic conflicts
Coups d’état
Deprivation conflicts
Adapted from Homer-Dixon 1999
↓ water, food
“Supply-induced scarcity”
A Case Study: GazaSupply-induced Scarcity:• Almost all freshwater comes from groundwater• Annual rainfall = 70 - 140 million cubic meters
• 60% of that becomes runoff to Mediterranean or is lost to evaporation
• Only 40% left to recharge single freshwater aquifer• Aquifer is shallow, >90% is contaminated by sewage, agricultural
runoff, and saltwater
• 50-60 million cubic meters = sustainable supply
Slide c/o CL Parker, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 2013
Consumption of Groundwater in Gaza
Demand-induced scarcity:• Consumption: 3x natural
supply• Population increases
Slide c/o CL Parker, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 2013
Structural Scarcity• Strict quotas on Palestinian consumption
• Frozen at 1967 levels
• Palestinians: 137m³/person—Israelis: 2000m³/person
• Palestinians prohibited from drilling new wells or repairing
water/sewer infrastructure
• Uneven pricing schemes• Palestinians pay 20 times what Israeli settlers pay for water
• Neighborhood desalination provide fresh drinking water to ~20%
population; rest buy bottled drinking water
Families pay 1/3 their monthly income for waterSlide c/o CL Parker, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 2013
Dept of Defense Study 2013:• Climate impacts are observable,
measurable, real, and having near and long-term consequences”
• Failure to anticipate and mitigate these changes, the report states, “increases the threat of more failed states with the instabilities and potential for conflict inherent in such failures.”
Environmental Peacemaking
• Scarce resources can be used as a tool
• Cooperate to manage environmental resources • transform insecurities and
• create more peaceful relationships between parties in dispute
• overcome political tensions
• promoting interaction, confidence building, and technical
cooperation -Geoffrey D. Dabelko, Woodrow Wilson International Center
for ScholarsSlide c/o CL Parker, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 2013
Minerva Initiative of the U.S. PentagonEngage scientific community to identify
• Regions of high risk• Elements of climate change related risk
• Food, water, migration, disaster, population, disease• Elements of resilience
• What allows communities faced with catastrophe to NOT devolve into conflict?
• How can the US assist in fostering these elements to prevent future conflict
Slide c/o CL Parker, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 2013