Solving Climate Solving Climate Disruption Reduces WarDisruption Reduces War

Catherine Thomasson, Catherine Thomasson, MDMD

Building Cultures of Peace

Sept 12, 2008

Guided by the Guided by the principles of principles of

public health & public health & medicine to medicine to

fight the gravest fight the gravest threats to threats to

humankind.humankind.

PSRPhysicians for Social ResponsibilityPhysicians for Social Responsibility

GoalsGoals

Understand the links between Understand the links between climate disruption, environmental climate disruption, environmental damage and war.damage and war.

Review the link between war and oilReview the link between war and oil Solving Global Warming will reduce Solving Global Warming will reduce

war!war!

Sudan Case StudySudan Case Study

Wikipedia-Satellite image of Sudan

Sudan Post-Conflict Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental AssessmentEnvironmental Assessment

argues that severe environmental argues that severe environmental degradation is among the root degradation is among the root

causes of the conflictcauses of the conflict

Hungry goats in Sudan feed on a single acacia tree in the desert.

UN Sudan AssessmentUN Sudan Assessment

Northern Darfur: 1/3-1/2 decrease in rainfall Northern Darfur: 1/3-1/2 decrease in rainfall over 80 yearsover 80 years

Increase in desert 100 km southwardIncrease in desert 100 km southward Northern grazing populations move south to Northern grazing populations move south to

agrarian populationsagrarian populations

Competition for Natural ResourcesCompetition for Natural Resources

Increase in livestock from 27 to 135 million since 1994

Northern pastoral tribes move down into traditional farming regions

Increase in conflict over land.

“Overall…the health effects of a rapidly changing climate are likely to be overwhelmingly negative.”

– World Health Organization

Kofi Annan: "drought and desertification threaten the livelihood of over 1 billion people in more than 110 countries around the world."

DeforestationDeforestation

• ½ the world uses timber as fuel for food or industry

• Trees cut for exportTrees cut for export

• Decreased or Decreased or increased rainfall increased rainfall decreases re-growthdecreases re-growth

• Drought increases Drought increases insect infestationinsect infestation Plantation of new forest-Sudan

Oil money is pouring into Khartoum

Greater Nile Petroleum Greater Nile Petroleum Operating Company Operating Company

China (40%), Malaysia, India with Sudanese government

Gov’t doubled Gov’t doubled military budgetmilitary budget

48 villages burned48 villages burned 55,000 people 55,000 people

displaced 2005displaced 2005

Eyevine

Economist 12/06

Oil and WarOil and War

Countries that export oil are Countries that export oil are more than more than 40 times more 40 times more likely to be engaged in likely to be engaged in

civil warcivil war than those that do than those that do not export oil.not export oil.

--World Bank--World Bank

World Oil Consumption, World Oil Consumption, 1965-20051965-2005

0

20

40

60

80

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Million Barrels/Day

Net Oil Imports, Net Oil Imports, 1994 and 20041994 and 2004

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

USA Europe Japan China India

1994

2004

Million Barrels/Day

11.8

8.1

5.5 5.3

0.1

3.0

0.71.6

9.1

9.9

World Oil DiscoveriesWorld Oil Discoveries

0

10

20

30

40

50

1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s

The rate of discovery is dropping fast

Billion Barrels/Year

Examples of Examples of Oil-Related ConflictsOil-Related Conflicts

CountryCountry ResourcesResources DurationDuration

Colombia Oil, Coca 1984 – present

Angola Oil, Diamonds 1975 – 2002

Sudan Oil 1983 – 2005

Nigeria Oil Since 1990s Intense >2005

Aceh (Indonesia)

Oil & Gas 1976 – 2005

““An attempt by any outside force to An attempt by any outside force to gain control of the Persian Gulf region gain control of the Persian Gulf region will be regarded as an assault on the will be regarded as an assault on the vital interests of the United States of vital interests of the United States of America, and such an assault will be America, and such an assault will be repelled repelled by any means necessary, by any means necessary, including military forceincluding military force. .

--President Jimmy Carter, --President Jimmy Carter, 1980 State of the Union Address1980 State of the Union Address

Pipeline EnvyPipeline Envy

Caspian OilCaspian Oil: Russia, : Russia, US and China pushed US and China pushed competing pipeline competing pipeline plans. U.S. backed plans. U.S. backed Baku-Tibilisi-Ceyhan Baku-Tibilisi-Ceyhan pipeline opened in pipeline opened in 5/05 bypassing Russia 5/05 bypassing Russia and Iranand Iran

Iranian gas: Bush administration opposes Iran pipeline to Pakistan & India.Pakistan & India.

Boundary DisputesBoundary Disputes

East China Sea:East China Sea: China, Japan, S. Korea & RussiaChina, Japan, S. Korea & Russia are are claiming areas that may be rich in oil & gas claiming areas that may be rich in oil & gas

South China Sea:South China Sea:• China, Taiwan, Vietnam China, Taiwan, Vietnam claim the claim the Paracel IslandsParacel Islands..• Along with theAlong with the Philippines, Brunei & Indonesia Philippines, Brunei & Indonesia, they , they

are also in dispute over the are also in dispute over the Spratly IslandsSpratly Islands..

Sulawesi Sea:Sulawesi Sea: Tensions btw Indonesia & Malaysia flared Tensions btw Indonesia & Malaysia flared over an oil-rich area in early 2005.over an oil-rich area in early 2005.

Bakassi Peninsula:Bakassi Peninsula: claimed by claimed by Nigeria & CameroonNigeria & Cameroon..

Int’l Court of Justice ruled in Oct. 2002 that Cameroon has Int’l Court of Justice ruled in Oct. 2002 that Cameroon has sovereignty; only in 2006 did Nigeria comply (withdrew its sovereignty; only in 2006 did Nigeria comply (withdrew its troops).troops).

““Oil Drives US Basing”Oil Drives US Basing”DefDefense News 9/03ense News 9/03

Bases in Bases in Uzbekistan & Uzbekistan & KyrgyzstanKyrgyzstan

Training missions Training missions in Georgiain Georgia

Azerbaijan with a Azerbaijan with a new US supported new US supported oil pipeline & oil pipeline & proposed site of proposed site of US military baseUS military base Airbase: Camp Stronghold Freedom,

Uzbekistan

The US Security Cost of Oil The US Security Cost of Oil DependenceDependence

• Skews U.S. foreign Skews U.S. foreign policypolicy

• Oil revenues fund Oil revenues fund terrorism and/or terrorism and/or conflict. conflict.

• Resource wars.Resource wars.

• Vulnerable energy Vulnerable energy infrastructure. infrastructure.

www.rrmuseumpa.org

Oil fires in war Iraq 1991

US in the Middle EastUS in the Middle East

Roosevelt and Roosevelt and subsequent US subsequent US presidential presidential support of the support of the royal Saud royal Saud family family

US in Iran/IraqUS in Iran/Iraq

Newly elected Prime Newly elected Prime Minister Mossadegh Minister Mossadegh nationalized Iran’s nationalized Iran’s oil industry 1951oil industry 1951

CIA orchestrated CIA orchestrated removal of removal of Mossadegh in 1953Mossadegh in 1953

CIA assassinated the CIA assassinated the leader of Iraq in leader of Iraq in 1963 after he 1963 after he created OPEC in created OPEC in 19601960

US Economy Dependant on US Economy Dependant on Foreign OilForeign Oil

Myers Visits Saudi Arabia, Jordan www.defenselink.mil ExxonMobil

The Saudi Connection

How “$70” billion in oil money spawned a global terror network

By David E. Kaplan 12/15/03

Reducing our reliance on oil will lower Reducing our reliance on oil will lower the price and change our foreign policythe price and change our foreign policy

U.S. doubled U.S. doubled vehicles since vehicles since 19841984

603 million cars603 million cars 234 million 234 million

commercial commercial vehiclesvehicles

Transportation Transportation uses 69% oil in uses 69% oil in U.S.U.S.

Los Angeles

What is the What is the single most single most important strategy important strategy to cut to cut

CO2 production today in the CO2 production today in the U.S.?U.S.?

Efficiency!

Geothermal

CSP

Efficiency

WindWindBiofuels

BiomassBiomassPhotovoltaiPhotovoltaicc

Efficiency + renewables path to 80% CO2

reductions

Write in white

Write in white

80% reduction path

Multnomah County CO2 EmissionsMultnomah County CO2 Emissions

1% above 1990 levels. Per capita decrease of 14%

Nationwide 16% increase since 1990

Rail Highest EfficiencyRail Highest Efficiency

DOT 2002 budget DOT 2002 budget • 54% Highways54% Highways

• 23% Aviation23% Aviation

• 8% Mass transit 8% Mass transit

• 7% Maritime7% Maritime

• 1% Amtrak1% Amtrak

Biofuels? Think Electric!Biofuels? Think Electric!

Vary in cost-Vary in cost-effectiveness by effectiveness by regionregion

Food fuels displace Food fuels displace ecosystemsecosystems

Cellulosic ethanolCellulosic ethanol

Best transportation efficiency Best transportation efficiency is the energy you don’t useis the energy you don’t use

Average food miles Average food miles 1,386/item in Iowa1,386/item in Iowa

Buy Locally!

Home & Building EfficiencyHome & Building Efficiency

Agriculture & Agriculture & Land Land

ManagementManagement

½ is from loss of CO2 ½ is from loss of CO2 sinks by land sinks by land degradationdegradation

Reduce meat Reduce meat consumption!consumption!

No till agricultureNo till agriculture

18% CO2 source world-18% CO2 source world-widewide

Renewable Energy OptionsRenewable Energy Options

WIND SOLAR

WAVES and

TIDES

GEOTHERMAL

People ActionsPeople Actions

IndividualIndividual

CityCity

CountyCounty

StateState

Federal Federal

InternationalPortland City Hall

Go on a Low Go on a Low Carbon Diet!Carbon Diet!

David Gershon:David Gershon: Low Carbon Diet: Low Carbon Diet: A 30 Day A 30 Day Program to Program to Loose 5000 Loose 5000 PoundsPounds. .

Green Office Green Office GuideGuide

1 computer station 1 computer station left on at night=1 left on at night=1 ton CO2/yton CO2/y

Best lighting-27% Best lighting-27% energy/buildingenergy/building

HVAC systemsHVAC systems

www.portlandonline.com

ICLEI - 1990 International Council for Local ICLEI - 1990 International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives Environmental Initiatives

12 initial cities in 1988-supported by UNEP12 initial cities in 1988-supported by UNEP 977 members in 70 countries977 members in 70 countries Members pay fee & receive technical Members pay fee & receive technical

assessment, assistance in planning and assessment, assistance in planning and share programs with other membersshare programs with other members

WWW.ICLEI.ORGWWW.ICLEI.ORG

State and Regional GlobalState and Regional GlobalWarming Initiatives Warming Initiatives

Slide from Sierra club

Regional Global Warming InitiativesRegional Global Warming Initiatives

Putting a Price Putting a Price on Carbon: on Carbon:

Hard cap on CO2 Hard cap on CO2 emissions for large emissions for large users of fossil fuels users of fossil fuels

- $- $

- $

- $- $- $

- $ - $ - $

- $- $

- $ - $

- $

- $

- $

- $

- $- $

- $- $

- $

- $

Demand Regulation FederallyDemand Regulation Federally

No subsidies for fossil fuels or nuclear No subsidies for fossil fuels or nuclear power (especially no loan guarantees)power (especially no loan guarantees)

Raise building and appliance efficiency standards

Fuel efficiency standards-including trucks Join international efforts to curb carbon

emissions

Federal Subsidies for Clean EnergyFederal Subsidies for Clean Energy

Clean recommendationsClean recommendations

Large-scale demonstration plants: solar thermal Large-scale demonstration plants: solar thermal and solar PV, microalgae and other aquatic plant and solar PV, microalgae and other aquatic plant biofuelsbiofuels

Make plug-in hybrids or electric the standard Make plug-in hybrids or electric the standard government vehicle by 2015.government vehicle by 2015.

Leverage government purchasing power to create Leverage government purchasing power to create a market for advanced efficiency and renewable a market for advanced efficiency and renewable technologiestechnologies

Ban ALL new coal plants without CO2 storageBan ALL new coal plants without CO2 storage Vigorous R&DVigorous R&D Energy and Climate Committee in the Science Energy and Climate Committee in the Science

Advisory Board of the EPAAdvisory Board of the EPA

Join Together for ChangeJoin Together for Change

Phone: 503-274-2720 www.OregonPSR.org