Weekly Chart Book September 16, 2013

Global Clients…Global Portfolios

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Accuvest Weekly Update

Global Financial Conditions

• Following the volatility we experienced in August, markets have resumed the risk-on trade this month.

• 10yr UST yields tested the symbolic 3% milestone for the first time since July 2011.

• Macro Risk and Financial Market Stress have increased YTD, but remain at moderate levels

• The VIX Index (implied S&P 500 volatility) closed @ 14.16, down from 15.85 last week

• This week – Equities and EM Currencies rallied, while Precious Metals and Oil struggled

Global Equity Markets

• The MSCI All Country World Index rallied 2.4% this week, is above its 50Day MA, and closed the week at all-time highs

• The S&P 500 was up 2.0% this week, and is beginning to underperform the ACWI, EAFE, and EM Indices

• The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rallied 3.0% this week, making a higher high and now testing Mid-April resistance

• Healthcare and Consumer Discretionary lead Global Sectors year-to-date

Interest Rates and Fixed Income

• 10 year US Treasury Yields closed the week at 2.88%, down from 2.93% last week and 3.01% mid week

• 10 year US Treasury Yields are forecasted to be 2.63% at the end of Q3 2013

• Investment Grade Bonds rallied 0.3% this week. They have failed to break above the 50DMA three times and are testing support

• High Yield Bonds rallied 0.5% this week, and is attempting to break above upward sloping 50DMA and 200DMA

• Emerging Market Bonds have rallied this month, as EM Debt spreads have narrowed from 1 year highs

• Mortgage Rates @ 4.93%, up from 4.83% last week

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Accuvest Weekly Update

The Economy

• Housing/Real Estate and Labor Market highlight the US Economy

• Next week’s U.S. economic calendar includes Industrial Production (0.4%), Housing Starts (920k), FOMC Decision, and LEI (0.6%)

Major Currencies

• The Pound, Euro, Krone, and Franc have appreciated vs. the US Dollar over the last 6 months

• The Brazilian Real, Aussie, Rupee, and Turkish Lira have all depreciated more than 10% vs. the US Dollar over the last 6 months

• The Mexican Peso (+3.1%) and Turkish Lira (+1.4%) are forecasted to appreciate vs. the US Dollar through the end of 2013

• The Swiss Franc(-5.1%) and British Pound (-4.9%) are forecasted to depreciate vs. the US Dollar through the end of 2013

• MXN/USD @ 13.04, strengthening from 13.16 last week and backing away from 1 year highs

Commodities

• Commodities (an equally weighted basket) have shown recent relative strength, but they remain in a 5 year down trend

• Gold @ $1326/oz., down near 5% from $1393.oz. last week, and backing away from recent highs of $1433/oz.

• Crude Oil @ $108.21/barrel, down from $110.53/barrel last week, but still above resistance @ $108/barrel

disclosure: The opinions expressed in this Weekly Chart Book report are those of the author. The materials and commentary are strictly informational and should be used for research use only. This bulletin is not intended to provide investing or other advice or guidance with respect to the matters addressed in the bulletin. All relevant facts, including individual circumstances, need to be considered by the reader to arrive at investment conclusions that comply with matters addressed in this bulletin. Charts and information used in this report are sourced from Bloomberg.

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US Financial Conditions

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Developed Markets

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Emerging Markets

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The VIX Index (S&P 500 Implied Volatility)

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Global Financial Stress Index

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Citi Macro Risk Index

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US Yield Curve (Current vs. 1 Month & 12 Months Ago)

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U.S. Treasury 10 Year Yield

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U.S. Treasury 10 Year Yield – Forecast

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Fed’s 5 Year Forward Breakeven (Inflation Expectations)

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Investment Grade Bond Prices

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Investment Grade Credit Spread (BBB – 10 Yr. UST Yield)

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High Yield Bond Prices

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High Yield Credit Spreads (HY – 10 Yr. UST Yield)

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Emerging Market Debt (Local Currency)

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Emerging Market Bond Spreads

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World Equity Indices

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MSCI All Country World Index

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S&P 500 Index

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MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index

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MSCI Emerging Markets Index

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AGO Constituents – Japan, China, USA, Germany, & Austria

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AGO Attribution – Japan, China, USA, Germany, & Austria

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AGO Performance vs. ACWI

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Global Heat Map – Sectors & Regions YTD

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S&P 500 Earnings Estimates (Forward 12 Months)

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ACWI Earnings Estimates (Forward 12 Months)

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Last week’s Economic Calendar

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Next week’s Economic Calendar

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Economic Surprise Monitor (Deviations from Expectations)

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Economic Surprise Index (Deviation from Expectations)

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30 Year Mortgage Rates

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Initial Jobless Claims – 4 Week Moving Average

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World Currencies vs. U.S. Dollar (6 Month Spot Returns)

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World Currencies vs. U.S. Dollar (Spot Forecast: Q4 2013)

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Japanese Yen ¥

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Euro €

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Mexican Peso

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British Pound

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Australian Dollar

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Indian Rupee

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Emerging Market Currencies

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Global Commodity Prices

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Continuous Commodity Index – 5 Years

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Gold Prices – 5 Years

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Gold Prices – 1 Year

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Gold to Gold Miners Ratio – 5 Years

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Crude Oil Prices – 5 Years

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Crude Oil Prices – 1 Year