The Iran Nuclear CrisisThe Iran Nuclear Crisis
Herzliya ConferenceHerzliya Conference
Scott D. SaganScott D. SaganFebruary 4, 2009February 4, 2009
Proliferation Fatalism: The belief that coercive diplomacy can not stop Iran from getting nuclear weapons.
Deterrence Optimism: The belief that a nuclear Iran can be easily deterred through threats of nuclear retaliation.
(Mis)Reading the 2007 NIE(Mis)Reading the 2007 NIE
• Iran “halted” its nuclear weapons program in 2003
• Iran’s weapons program was a violation of its NPT obligations
• Covert enrichment program exists outside of Natanz
Dangers of a Nuclear IranDangers of a Nuclear Iran
• Cold War analogy flawed
• Pakistan analogy better– Shield for aggressive
action– Ambiguous “control”– Dangerous custodians– Anonymous attack
• Further proliferation
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