The Iran Nuclear Crisis Herzliya Conference Scott D. Sagan February 4, 2009.
5
The Iran Nuclear The Iran Nuclear Crisis Crisis Herzliya Conference Herzliya Conference Scott D. Sagan Scott D. Sagan February 4, 2009 February 4, 2009
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Transcript of The Iran Nuclear Crisis Herzliya Conference Scott D. Sagan February 4, 2009.
The Iran Nuclear CrisisThe Iran Nuclear Crisis
Herzliya ConferenceHerzliya Conference
Scott D. SaganScott D. SaganFebruary 4, 2009February 4, 2009
Proliferation Fatalism: The belief that coercive diplomacy can not stop Iran from getting nuclear weapons.
Deterrence Optimism: The belief that a nuclear Iran can be easily deterred through threats of nuclear retaliation.
(Mis)Reading the 2007 NIE(Mis)Reading the 2007 NIE
• Iran “halted” its nuclear weapons program in 2003
• Iran’s weapons program was a violation of its NPT obligations
• Covert enrichment program exists outside of Natanz
Dangers of a Nuclear IranDangers of a Nuclear Iran
• Cold War analogy flawed
• Pakistan analogy better– Shield for aggressive
action– Ambiguous “control”– Dangerous custodians– Anonymous attack
• Further proliferation
Moving Forward?Moving Forward?
• Stronger Carrots – Regime Coexistence– LWR Assistance– Grand Bargain
• Stronger Sticks– Sanctions on Refined
Petroleum– Financial Sanctions
• Military Options
