The 2011 Scottish Parliament election
Dr Nicola McEwen
University of Edinburgh
Election Result SNP wins 53 out of 73
constituencies and 16 regional seats…
A majority of constituencies in every region, except south of Scotland
Clean sweep of North East and still won a regional seat
By far the highest share of the vote & seats of any winning party in a devolved election
Parties’ Vote/Seat ShareConstituency Region total
2011 % # % # #
SNP 45.4 53 44 16 69
Lab 31.7 15 26.3 22 37
Cons 13.9 3 12.4 12 15
Lib Dem 7.9 2 5.2 3 5
Others 1.1 0 12.1 3 3
2007 % # % # #
SNP 32.9 21 31.0 26 47
Lab 32.1 37 29.1 9 46
Cons 16.6 4 13.9 13 17
Lib Dem 12.4 11 11.3 5 16
Others - 3 3
Why? First class SNP campaign
presentation, issues, leadership, organisation, new media
Collapse of Liberal Democrats vote Wholesale shift to SNP? Second-order effects Weak party identification
Labour overall vote share down by only 0.5% on constituency vote and 2.9% on regional vote But this masks significant variation & failure to capitalise on Lib
Dem weakness Leadership problem in Scotland and change in nature of UK
party Poor campaign, wrong overall strategy and no 2nd vote strategy
No ‘second order’ bounce for Labour
Implications in Parliament Overall majority in parliamentary chamber Overall majority in parliamentary committees Shift in balance of power between parliament and executive Large new intake of (inexperienced) parliamentarians across
parties – for Labour, coincides with significant loss of experience
What might we expect in parliament?
Early introduction of minimum pricing for alcohol, but few other legislative pledges
Reform of structure of public services, but no significant change to universal provision
New localism agenda? Community empowerment discourse
Reform of higher education Continuity in business/economic policy – Small
Business Bonus; Scottish Futures Trust; drive toward renewables
Independence referendum
Implications for Relationswith UK Govt
No debate now about who speaks for Scotland More use of JMC? Continuity in nature of IGR, but possible shift in
power balance Strengthening the Scotland Bill is a priority:
Control over Crown Estates Enhanced borrowing powers Control over corporation tax
Independence referendum ameans of winning concessions
IndependenceReferendum
All we know is that a consultative referendum will happen
HIGHLY unlikely to happen quickly, whatever calls made to this effect
Constitutional powers and economic policy are intrinsically linked for SNP
Single question or multi-option referendum? One referendum or two? Victory for the NO side is not a foregone
conclusion
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