The 2011 Scottish Parliament election

Dr Nicola McEwen

University of Edinburgh

Election Result SNP wins 53 out of 73

constituencies and 16 regional seats…

A majority of constituencies in every region, except south of Scotland

Clean sweep of North East and still won a regional seat

By far the highest share of the vote & seats of any winning party in a devolved election

Parties’ Vote/Seat ShareConstituency Region total

2011 % # % # #

SNP 45.4 53 44 16 69

Lab 31.7 15 26.3 22 37

Cons 13.9 3 12.4 12 15

Lib Dem 7.9 2 5.2 3 5

Others 1.1 0 12.1 3 3

2007 % # % # #

SNP 32.9 21 31.0 26 47

Lab 32.1 37 29.1 9 46

Cons 16.6 4 13.9 13 17

Lib Dem 12.4 11 11.3 5 16

Others - 3 3

Why? First class SNP campaign

presentation, issues, leadership, organisation, new media

Collapse of Liberal Democrats vote Wholesale shift to SNP? Second-order effects Weak party identification

Labour overall vote share down by only 0.5% on constituency vote and 2.9% on regional vote But this masks significant variation & failure to capitalise on Lib

Dem weakness Leadership problem in Scotland and change in nature of UK

party Poor campaign, wrong overall strategy and no 2nd vote strategy

No ‘second order’ bounce for Labour

Implications in Parliament Overall majority in parliamentary chamber Overall majority in parliamentary committees Shift in balance of power between parliament and executive Large new intake of (inexperienced) parliamentarians across

parties – for Labour, coincides with significant loss of experience

What might we expect in parliament?

Early introduction of minimum pricing for alcohol, but few other legislative pledges

Reform of structure of public services, but no significant change to universal provision

New localism agenda? Community empowerment discourse

Reform of higher education Continuity in business/economic policy – Small

Business Bonus; Scottish Futures Trust; drive toward renewables

Independence referendum

Implications for Relationswith UK Govt

No debate now about who speaks for Scotland More use of JMC? Continuity in nature of IGR, but possible shift in

power balance Strengthening the Scotland Bill is a priority:

Control over Crown Estates Enhanced borrowing powers Control over corporation tax

Independence referendum ameans of winning concessions

IndependenceReferendum

All we know is that a consultative referendum will happen

HIGHLY unlikely to happen quickly, whatever calls made to this effect

Constitutional powers and economic policy are intrinsically linked for SNP

Single question or multi-option referendum? One referendum or two? Victory for the NO side is not a foregone

conclusion