Th A fThree Actions for LCSs
Tokyo Institute of Technologyy gy
Hiroto TakayamaKazufumi TakashinaKou MorimotoTasuku HasegawaChie Tanabe
Oct. 31, 2008
Narrative ScenarioNarrative ScenarioAnnual Growth rate :→ Approximately 2% of GDP per→ Approximately 2% of GDP per
capita growth rateTechnology development rate :
Hi h140
Population Projection
→ HighMarket : Reducing regulationPrimary: 100
120
yDecrease in Share Increase in import dependencySecondary:
60
80
mill
ion 65 over
15~64
0~14
Secondary:Tendency to heighten the added value Globalization of production basis 20
40
Service:Increase in share Increase in productivity
0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Increase in productivity
Policyy
Residential sector (HEMS and BEMS)HEMS and BEMS are the technology of improving energy gy p g gyefficiency in residential sector.
Freight transport sector (modal shift)Freight transport sector (modal shift)Modal shift is a change in the proportion of trips by different types of freight transporttypes of freight transport .
Energy sector (natural energy) We assume that we introduce the technology of natural energy.
d lResidential Sector
HEMS & BEMS
U IT h lUse IT technology to promote and facilitate a system that supports y ppthe energy demand management at home (HEMS)at home (HEMS)for business (BEMS)
Source: Energate Inc
Optionsp
HEMS & BEMS
High cost Lack of knowledgeof HEMS &BEMS
Cost downConveniences Advertisements
Lack of appealof HEMS &BEMS
Need to investConnectionbetween themakers
Lack of informationabout house and building energy savingNeed to invest
Development of cost performance
Electricalappliances
Education ofenvironmentDevelopment of
usability cost performance
Change legal or Impose tax
When should we start the optionsp2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Advertisement
Development (cost performance and usability)
Electrical appliances
Cost down
Electrical appliances
Education
Ch l l I t
Conveniences
Change legal or Impose tax
Result
CO2 Reduction
315
313 5
314
314.5
315
BEMS light
BEMS warm
312.5
313
313.5
Mt-
c
BEMS cool
HEMS appliances
HEMS light
311
311.5
312
M HEMS light
HEMS warm
HEMS cool
310
310.5
0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0
BAU
200
200
201
201
202
202
203
203
204
204
205
TTransportation Sector(Freight)(Freight)
Japanese Railway SystemJ p y yPassenger railway company
F i h R ilFreight Railway company
“Japanese Freight Railway Company” hire railway track from “Passenger Railway Company”Passenger Railway Company .
barriersF i ht il `t k fl ibilit• Freight railway company can`t make flexibility Now, they lag increasing demand
• When disaster happen ,recovery of freight rail diagram is very slowdiagram is very slow
• Limit of burden is strictEG Japan; Maximum loading weight is 1300t
Korea; Maximum loading weight is more than 2000tKorea; Maximum loading weight is more than 2000t
• Equipment of freight train get older
• Government place more emphasis on road and less on rail.
Optionsp
Increasing rail transportDifferentiated service to other means Improve through transportation
Energy saving train
V ti l ti 40ftcontainer
Improvement portImprove speed of transport
B ilt b ll t t i f Vertical separation 40ftcontainer remain competitive
Rise weight limitsImprove alternate
Built bullet train for cargo transport
New raw to remain competitive
Improve existing infrastructure
Improve alternate route
competitive
New raw to sub serve cost
securing of financing
Introduce the carbon tax
What is vertical Separation?pDepartment of train monitoring
(new construction)(new construction)
Monitoring competition
Monitoring safety
Railway companies(operate trains)
Rail truck companies(operate rail truck)
EG. Réseau Ferré de France
Use fees of rail truck
p EG. Réseau Ferré de FranceNetwork Rail (UK)Lending rail truck
What is Tokaido Freight ShinkansenWhat is Tokaido Freight Shinkansen
Now, line capacity between Tokyo and Osaka is full
We can not increase Freight train.There is a plan to built freight line medianThere is a plan to built freight line median
strip on the new high way
When should we start the optionsp2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Energy saving train
Built bullet train for cargo transportg p
New raw to remain competitive
Improve alternate routeImprove alternate route
New raw to sub serve cost
I t d th b tIntroduce the carbon tax
Improve existing infrastructure
Vertical separation
40ft container
Improvement port
Result~Transportation mode~
350
process of transportation mode
300
200
250
Small freight vehicle
150B t-
km Large freigt vehicle
Freight train
Freight ship
50
100 Freght air
0
50
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 20502000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Change of CO2 emissionChange of CO2 emission (MtC)
building bullet train
reduction of car transportation by bullet train renewal of freight train equipment
2
making effcient locomobile
1
1.5
0
0.5
MtC
-1
-0.5
2
-1.5
-2
lEnergy Supply Sector
Power production for local consumption by local renewable resource
Fuel shift to renewable energy
Water, land right
Reducing Law reforming
, gconstraintsEnergy loss in electricity
transmissionLow penetration rate of
renewable power equipment
improvement of electricity transmission infrastructure
transmission loss renewable power equipment
Expanding renewable energy purchasing system
High-cost relative to existing electricity
Lack of information about renewable energy
based power system
Low purchasing price for renewable energy
Announcement for stakeholderEnhancing R&D Subsidies for installation of
renewable power system
When should we start the optionsp2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Announcement for stakeholder
Expanding renewable energy purchasing system
Law reforming
Expanding renewable energy purchasing system
Fuel shift to renewable energy
improvement of electricity transmission infrastructure
Enhancing R&D
Reducing transmission loss
Enhancing R&D
Result
315
320
310
315
Mt-C
]
Efficient renewable powerl t
305
emis
sion
[M plantFuel shift to renewableenergyBAU
295
300CO
2 BAU
290
295
0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
All ActionsResidential and Commercial sector
HEMS BEMS → diffuse320
HEMS, BEMS → diffuse
Freight transportation sector 280
300
n [M
tC]
The Tokaido Shinkansen for commodity distribution begin service (2020~)
260
280
CO
2 em
issi
o
se ce ( 0 0 )Spread railway networksImprove the efficiency of trains 220
240
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
CEnergy supply sector
Energy shift (2015~)
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
BAU HEMS coolHEMS warm HEMS lightHEMS appliances BEMS coolBEMS warm BEMS lightEnergy shift (2015 )
→ renewable energyg
bullet train for cargo transport car reductionRail infrastructure development Efficient locomotive buildingdecrease shipping Fuel shift to renewable energyEfficient renewable power plant
Discussion
UncertaintiesIs there other options or barriers?
Mi d i iMindset, incentivesOur inputs for BCM is correct?
To stimulate stakeholders’ participation in actions, more effective options are neededmore effective options are needed.
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