ESS and BCM Exercise Modeling Exercise Presentation by ... · Microsoft PowerPoint -...

24
AIM LCS Workshop 2008 AIM-LCS Workshop 2008 31 October 2008, Tsukuba ESS and BCM Exercise Modeling Exercise Presentation by Thailand Team Thailand Team Shreekar Pradhan and Mayurachat Watcharejyothin Asian Institute of Technology Pathumthani Thailand Pathumthani, Thailand 1

Transcript of ESS and BCM Exercise Modeling Exercise Presentation by ... · Microsoft PowerPoint -...

Page 1: ESS and BCM Exercise Modeling Exercise Presentation by ... · Microsoft PowerPoint - day5_presentation3_Thailand.ppt [互換モード] Author: takahasi Created Date: 2/27/2009 6:48:49

AIM LCS Workshop 2008AIM-LCS Workshop 200831 October 2008, Tsukuba

ESS and BCM Exercise Modeling gExercise Presentation by

Thailand TeamThailand Team

Shreekar Pradhan and Mayurachat Watcharejyothin Asian Institute of Technology

Pathumthani ThailandPathumthani, Thailand

1

Page 2: ESS and BCM Exercise Modeling Exercise Presentation by ... · Microsoft PowerPoint - day5_presentation3_Thailand.ppt [互換モード] Author: takahasi Created Date: 2/27/2009 6:48:49

Brief Background

• Location: – Area of 513,115 km2 and extends about

1,620 km from north to south and 775 kilometres from east to west.

• Population: 64.76 million

• Population Density: 126 people/km2• Population Density: 126 people/km

• GDP: US $ 176 billion

GDP it US $ 2727 ( 2005)• GDP per capita: US $ 2727 (year 2005)

• Economy: 2nd highest in the ASEAN region

Page 3: ESS and BCM Exercise Modeling Exercise Presentation by ... · Microsoft PowerPoint - day5_presentation3_Thailand.ppt [互換モード] Author: takahasi Created Date: 2/27/2009 6:48:49

CO2, TPES, GDP and Population Growthduring 1990-2006g

2.6CO2

2.2

2.4 TPES

GDP

P l ti

1.8

2

x (1

990=

100) Population

1.4

1.6Inde

x

1

1.2

AAGR (2001-2006):

1990 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

3Source: DEDE, 2006, IMF, 2008, IEA, 2007 and 2008

( )CO2: 4.35% Population: 1.02%TPES: 5.91% GDP: 5.07%

Page 4: ESS and BCM Exercise Modeling Exercise Presentation by ... · Microsoft PowerPoint - day5_presentation3_Thailand.ppt [互換モード] Author: takahasi Created Date: 2/27/2009 6:48:49

Final Energy Demand during 2000-2050 in the Reference Scenarioin the Reference Scenario

350

400Agriculture

300

350 Residential

Commercial

Transport

200

250

Mto

e

Industrial

100

150

50

100

Source: Shrestha et al., 2008

Final Energy Demand in future would increase by more than 6 folds during 2000-2050.

02000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

4

Residential: decrease from 17% to 4% Industrial: increase from 33% to 41%Agriculture: decrease from 4% to 1% Commercial : Increase from 6% to 12%

Transport: Increase from 40% to 42%

Page 5: ESS and BCM Exercise Modeling Exercise Presentation by ... · Microsoft PowerPoint - day5_presentation3_Thailand.ppt [互換モード] Author: takahasi Created Date: 2/27/2009 6:48:49

Sectoral CO2 emission during 2000-2050 in the Reference Scenario?

1200

1400

AgricultureResidential

Agriculture1000

1200 CommercialTransportPowerIndustrial

Residential

Agriculture

600

800

MtC

O2

Power

TransportCommercial

400

600

Industrial

0

200

• Increase in CO2 emission by more than 6 folds during 2000-2050.

02000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

5

2 y g• Industrial, Transport and Power sectors together account for 94% of the

cumulative CO2 emission during 2000-2050.

Page 6: ESS and BCM Exercise Modeling Exercise Presentation by ... · Microsoft PowerPoint - day5_presentation3_Thailand.ppt [互換モード] Author: takahasi Created Date: 2/27/2009 6:48:49

Path to Low Carbon Society by 2050

Our past studies (based on bottom up models) in developing LCS scenarios show that the two areasdeveloping LCS scenarios show that the two areas would be the main sector that larger CO2 emission reduction would be achieved:reduction would be achieved:

a) transport and b) electricity generationb) electricity generation

The study also shows that unless we introduce some majorThe study also shows that unless we introduce some major policy changes in other sectors as well like fuel shifting, modal shift, the higher CO2 emission would not be possible in the current structure.

6

Page 7: ESS and BCM Exercise Modeling Exercise Presentation by ... · Microsoft PowerPoint - day5_presentation3_Thailand.ppt [互換モード] Author: takahasi Created Date: 2/27/2009 6:48:49

Path to Low Carbon Society by 2050In this study, we have focused on the following sectors for ESS and

BCM exercises:R id ti l• Residential

• Transport• Electricity GenerationElectricity Generation

The issue of climate change would be of major concern. • With the declining population growth, there would be growth in aging

population and also a mature society.• With the economy growing and declining population the• With the economy growing and declining population, the

income/capita would rise. This makes shifting to cleaner fuel options and technology options affordable.

• The consumption of fossil fuel would be drastically reduced and cleaner fuel would be the major choice.

• As a result, the cost of fossil fuel would go up and people would beAs a result, the cost of fossil fuel would go up and people would be inclined to cleaner fuel use.

7

Page 8: ESS and BCM Exercise Modeling Exercise Presentation by ... · Microsoft PowerPoint - day5_presentation3_Thailand.ppt [互換モード] Author: takahasi Created Date: 2/27/2009 6:48:49

Residential andResidential and Power Generation

Page 9: ESS and BCM Exercise Modeling Exercise Presentation by ... · Microsoft PowerPoint - day5_presentation3_Thailand.ppt [互換モード] Author: takahasi Created Date: 2/27/2009 6:48:49

Residential Sector

In the residential sector, the following actions and strategy would be implemented:be implemented:

• Energy efficiency (EE) labeling program for household appliances in phase wise: (EE would increase by 50% by pp p ( y y2020 and 75% by 2050 for all air conditioners manufactured in the country.)P l ill t t i l ti th i h f 2015 d• People will start insulating their homes from 2015 onward as a result there would be reduction of 2 Mtoe by 2050 .

• By 2050 oil based cooking will be shifted to electricity basedBy 2050, oil based cooking will be shifted to electricity based cooking.

• The manufacturing capacity of domestic solar water heating systems would be developed by 2015; people would start utilizing solar water heating systems from 2020 onward.

9

Page 10: ESS and BCM Exercise Modeling Exercise Presentation by ... · Microsoft PowerPoint - day5_presentation3_Thailand.ppt [互換モード] Author: takahasi Created Date: 2/27/2009 6:48:49

Electricity Generation Sector

With the increasing fuel shift towards electricity in residential sector there would be a need to shift to cleaner fuel insector, there would be a need to shift to cleaner fuel in electricity generation. Thus, the following actions and strategy would be implemented:

• With the expected growing economy, the electricity demand would significantly rise. At present, the power generation is heavily based on natural gas along with coalheavily based on natural gas along with coal.

• In order to meet the power demand, nuclear power generation would be put as an option by 2020.p p y

• With the technology transfer and improvement program in power generation, all fossil fuel power generation would achieve 50% efficiency by 2050.

• The Renewable Energy Portfolio Standard (RPS) scheme would be maintained; 6 Mtoe power generation would comewould be maintained; 6 Mtoe power generation would come from renewable energy resources.

10

Page 11: ESS and BCM Exercise Modeling Exercise Presentation by ... · Microsoft PowerPoint - day5_presentation3_Thailand.ppt [互換モード] Author: takahasi Created Date: 2/27/2009 6:48:49

Options: Energy Efficiency Improvement (an Example)( p )

Energy Efficiency Improvement in cooling

HH appliancesHH appliances

Stricter Energy Efficiency Labeling Program

Ph IIPhase II

Review of the program

Soft l

Energy Efficiency Labeling Program

Phase Iloans

Technology Transfer

Conferences, workshop, media

Increasing awareness

Survey on the Survey on energy

Programp,

campaign among the stakeholders

share of EE cooling devices

efficiency of cooling devices

Page 12: ESS and BCM Exercise Modeling Exercise Presentation by ... · Microsoft PowerPoint - day5_presentation3_Thailand.ppt [互換モード] Author: takahasi Created Date: 2/27/2009 6:48:49

CO2 Reduction by intervention in Residential and Power GenerationResidential and Power Generation

12Source: DEDE, 2006

Page 13: ESS and BCM Exercise Modeling Exercise Presentation by ... · Microsoft PowerPoint - day5_presentation3_Thailand.ppt [互換モード] Author: takahasi Created Date: 2/27/2009 6:48:49

CO2 Reduction by Different Options

13

Page 14: ESS and BCM Exercise Modeling Exercise Presentation by ... · Microsoft PowerPoint - day5_presentation3_Thailand.ppt [互換モード] Author: takahasi Created Date: 2/27/2009 6:48:49

ACTIONS

focused on

Transport passenger sector

Page 15: ESS and BCM Exercise Modeling Exercise Presentation by ... · Microsoft PowerPoint - day5_presentation3_Thailand.ppt [互換モード] Author: takahasi Created Date: 2/27/2009 6:48:49

Transport Sector Policies in Thailand

• Biofuel development and promotionGasohol– Gasohol

• Targeted replacement of gasoline fuel use.• Strategy to promote fuel-flex vehicles

Biodiesel– Biodiesel• Targeted replacement of diesel fuel use.• Community level biodiesel production.

St t t t t l hi l• Strategy to promote natural gas vehicles– Subsidy in compressed natural gas

• Development and Strategy to promote Mass RapidDevelopment and Strategy to promote Mass Rapid Transits

– Extending of electrified subways and sky trains.Development of double track railways– Development of double track railways.

– Development of intercity electric trains.– High speed electric engines to replace diesel engines in Railways.

15

Page 16: ESS and BCM Exercise Modeling Exercise Presentation by ... · Microsoft PowerPoint - day5_presentation3_Thailand.ppt [互換モード] Author: takahasi Created Date: 2/27/2009 6:48:49

Actions in Passenger Transport Sector

**Action**Reductions of

EC andCO2 i i

Energy

CO2 emission

Infrastructure&Fuel supply

gyEfficiency

improvementSystematic control

R&DInfrastructure&InvestmentPlanning

Trafficcontrol

Bio-fuel promotion

SynergyPlan agri/energy

supplyCommon

access

Intelligent Priority parking

FFVsdevelopment

FFVsmanufacturing

RegionalEl t i t iIntelligent

system (GIS)

Priority lanes

Priority parkinglodge

Commonticket

PublicInformation

Cost, benefits, safety

Electric train

Urban planning

Incentive-Investment tax

-Environmental tax-Price tax

16Data survey

Page 17: ESS and BCM Exercise Modeling Exercise Presentation by ... · Microsoft PowerPoint - day5_presentation3_Thailand.ppt [互換モード] Author: takahasi Created Date: 2/27/2009 6:48:49

Key Assumptions: Transport Sector

• Projection of service energy demand is based on sectoral value addedsectoral value added– Moderate Growth for 2000-2050:

• Personal passenger vehicles (PPV)PPV ll 4 5%– PPV-small: 4.5%

– PPV-mini:4.5%– PPV-large:3.3%

Commercial passenger vehicles (CPV): 3 3%• Commercial passenger vehicles (CPV): 3.3%• Bus: 2.8%• Train: 3.3%

Shi 2 8%• Ship: 2.8%• Air: 4.0%

Page 18: ESS and BCM Exercise Modeling Exercise Presentation by ... · Microsoft PowerPoint - day5_presentation3_Thailand.ppt [互換モード] Author: takahasi Created Date: 2/27/2009 6:48:49

Options Descriptions Commence Durations (Years)

1 Sytematic Traffic Control 2015 51 Sytematic Traffic Control 2015 5

2 Master plan for clean and green city 2015 15

3 Incentive tax to promote the clean-green of central urban areas 2020 5

5 High efficiency passenger vehicle 2020 20

6 High efficiency passenger bio-fuel vehicles 2010 20

7 Green tax for low environmental load vehicle 2020 30

8 Priority lanes and parkings lodge for environmental friendly vehicle 2020 30

9 Bus rapid track 2010 20

ACTIONS10 Common ticket for bus, train, ship 2010 20

11 High efficiency passenger railway (ELE, TRN) 2020 20

12 High efficiency passenger ship (OIL, SHP) 2020 20

13 High efficiency passenger Bio-alcohl ship (BMS, SHP) 2020 2013 High efficiency passenger Bio alcohl ship (BMS, SHP) 2020 20

14 High efficiency passenger airplane (OIL, AIR) 2020 20

15 High efficiency passenger biofuel airplane (BMS, AIR) 2020 20

16 Improvement of the efficiency of public transportation 2010 40

17 R&D support for lighter and FFVs maintenance training public hearing 2008 1517 R&D support for lighter and FFVs, maintenance, training, public hearing 2008 15

18 Promotion of biomass utilization 2008 0

19 Relaxation of regulations and cost reduction in certain regions 2010 15

20 Synergy plans for agriculture/forestry/energy 2010 20

21 Cost reduction of biomass conversion technology 2010 35

22 Soft loan at initial stage of efficient FFVs 2010 5

23 Modal shift to public transportation service 2008 20

24 Carbon tax on transportation energy 2010 10

25 Regional-electric train 2020 10

26 Fuel Shift for Mini Passenger vehicle 2010 40

Page 19: ESS and BCM Exercise Modeling Exercise Presentation by ... · Microsoft PowerPoint - day5_presentation3_Thailand.ppt [互換モード] Author: takahasi Created Date: 2/27/2009 6:48:49

Impacts of

ACTIONS

Preliminary Results

Page 20: ESS and BCM Exercise Modeling Exercise Presentation by ... · Microsoft PowerPoint - day5_presentation3_Thailand.ppt [互換モード] Author: takahasi Created Date: 2/27/2009 6:48:49

CO2 Emission: BAU and Scenario Cases

ACTIONS

focused on

Transport passenger sector

Page 21: ESS and BCM Exercise Modeling Exercise Presentation by ... · Microsoft PowerPoint - day5_presentation3_Thailand.ppt [互換モード] Author: takahasi Created Date: 2/27/2009 6:48:49

Impacts of the Action

Total CO2 Emission Reduction 2

0.00

0.20

-0.03 Mtons

-0.20

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

2032

2034

2036

2038

2040

2042

2044

2046

2048

-0.60

-0.40

-1.00

-0.80

3 14 Mt-1.20

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27

3.14 Mtons

28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45

Page 22: ESS and BCM Exercise Modeling Exercise Presentation by ... · Microsoft PowerPoint - day5_presentation3_Thailand.ppt [互換モード] Author: takahasi Created Date: 2/27/2009 6:48:49

Impacts of the Action

CO2 Emission Reduction by Options

0.20

2 y pIncreasing of electric train services

-0.200.00

-0.60-0.40

High efficiency in small (28%)

-1.00-0.80

High efficiency in small (28%) and mini (32%) PPVs

-1.201 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43

Mtons

Page 23: ESS and BCM Exercise Modeling Exercise Presentation by ... · Microsoft PowerPoint - day5_presentation3_Thailand.ppt [互換モード] Author: takahasi Created Date: 2/27/2009 6:48:49

Discussion on ESS and BCM

• Effectiveness: Reasonable – Back casting!Addi diff t ti i t diff t h t ?• Adding different options in two different sheets?

• Fuel share in intermittent years?• Amount of CO2 reduction by policy options (may not

directly reduce CO2)?I t t f l f l t h l ti ?• Investment for cleaner fuel or technology options?

• Linking with other models?

23

Page 24: ESS and BCM Exercise Modeling Exercise Presentation by ... · Microsoft PowerPoint - day5_presentation3_Thailand.ppt [互換モード] Author: takahasi Created Date: 2/27/2009 6:48:49

Thank You!

24