Student Success Matrix (SSMX)
Karen Swan, University of Illinois Springfield Peter Shea, SUNY Mindy Sloan, Ashford University Sandy Daston, PAR
Overview
• Past, present, and (one) future • Four models and their strengths/weaknesses • Current work based in literature, PAR 1 and
current PAR partners • A tentative model for online student retention • One possible future, benefits, next steps • Questions for you
Brief History of Research
• First retention studies followed post-WWII boom • 1960s “dropouts” studied creating first empirical
literature • 1970s, Spady (1971) reviewed literature, created
descriptive theory applying Durkheim’s (1951) theory of suicide
• Using Spady’s work, Tinto (1975) created predictive theory of college dropout behavior
• Bean and Metzner (1985) and others studied non-traditional students – different predictive model
Pre-entry Attributes
Goals/ Commitments
Institutional Experience Integration Goals/
Commitments Outcome
Criticisms of Tinto Model
• Based on assimilation into monolithic culture of higher education
• “Cultural suicide” – students physically and culturally disassociate with past to “survive”
• Critique: Institutions should be more adaptive and responsive to students – “intervene”
• Roots of distinction between “retention” and “persistence” (not the same)
Assumes these as “given”
Assumes these as “given”
Where is institutional response? Where are “interventions”?
Why uni-variate outcome?
Pre-entry Attributes
Goals/ Commitments
Institutional Experience Integration Goals/
Commitments Outcome
Non-traditional students
• ‘‘We label none of the thirteen propositions of Tinto’s theory as reliable knowledge [about] commuter colleges and universities” (Braxton & Lee, 2005)
• For “commuter students” social integration is replaced by environmental variables and psychological outcomes (Bean & Metzner, 1985)
Bean & Metzner’s (1985) model for non-traditional students
learner characteristics
academic variables
environmental
variables
academic outcomes
psychological outcomes
decision to Drop-out
learner characteristics
psychological outcomes
environmental variables
Assumes these as “given”
Assumes these as “given”
Where is institutional response? Where are “interventions”?
Retention or Persistence?
• Retention: institutional goal of keeping students enrolled for consecutive semesters until degree completion
• Persistence: individual goal of a student reaching his or her specific educational attainment.
• These are different.
Important?
“In a national sample, approximately 59% of BA recipients graduated from a different college than the first institution they attended”
(National Center for Education Statistics [NCES], 2003).
Implication: Institutions will fail to “retain”
students most of the time
Retention or Persistence?
• Colleges and universities retain students, while students persist to a goal.
• Assumption underlying retention is retention to degree from original institution
• Individual student’s goal are different • Student may successfully persist to a goal without
being retained to graduation • “Educational attainment” - term used to capture
the variability of students’ goals and disentangle retention and persistence
Interventions: For Retention or Persistence?
Still assumes these as “given” ?
Still assumes these as “given” ?
Where is institutional response? Where are “interventions”?
(Falcone, 2012)
Empirical v Conceptual Models
• Previous models have been largely based on conceptual work
• Opportunities exist to test these empirically • Analytics clearly one way • Other ways too, for example:
National Empirical Results Interventions targeted toward: • preventing delayed entry to college • increasing part-timers’ level of enrollment • boosting financial aid in community colleges • reducing students’ work hours have the greatest numerical potential for improving
completion rates. Caveat: National results don’t tell me about me
What’s Missing?
• We need new models • Neither “traditional” nor “commuters” • Need the model to be explicit:
– Online + Classroom + Blended – Institutional response/interventions – Retention/persistence – Multivariate outcomes – Conceptual but empirically testable “here”
predictors learner characteristics
learner behaviors academic integration
social-psychological integration other learner support
course/program characteristics instructors behaviors
research literature PAR POC findings partners experience
time connection entry progress completion
academic cycle program/
course
Learner Characteristics
22%
Learner Behaviors
15%
Academic Integration
19%
Social-Psych Integration
10%
Other Learner Support
13%
Course/Program Characteristics
12%
Instructor Behaviors
9%
differing types of supports X predictors addressed
Learner Characteristics
24%
Learner Behaviors
14%
Academic Integration
20%
Social-Psych Integration
8%
Other Learner Support
9%
Course/Program Characteristics
17%
Instructor Behaviors
8 %
Learner Characteristics
23%
Learner Behaviors
13%
Academic Integration
21%
Social-Psych Integration
11%
Other Learner Support
13%
Course/Program Characteristics
10%
Instructor Behaviors
10%
predictors addressed: community vs. 4-year colleges
community colleges 4-year colleges
Learner Characteristics
29%
Learner Behaviors
11% Academic
Integration
17%
Social-Psych Integration
8%
Other Learner Support
11%
Course/Program Characteristics
17%
Instructor Behaviors
7% Learner
Characteristics
33%
Learner Behaviors,
7% Academic Integration
23%
Social-Psych Integration
15%
Other Learner Support
8%
Course/Program Characteristics,
3% Instructor Behavior
11 %
predictors addressed: for-profit vs. public
for-profit colleges public colleges
predictors addressed: open vs. selective admissions
Learner Characteristics
26%
Learner Behaviors
14%
Academic Integration
19 %
Social-Psych Integration
8%
Other Learner Support
10%
Course/Program Characteristics
14%
Instructor Behaviors
8% Learner Characteristics
21%
Learner Behaviors
14%
Academic Integration
21%
Social-Psych Integration
11%
Other Learner Support
14%
Course/Program Characteristics
10%
Instructor Behaviors
10%
open admissions selective admissions
Learner Characteristics
22%
Learner Behaviors
13%
Academic Integration
22%
Social-Psych Integration
10%
Other Learner Support
11%
Course/Program Characteristics
13%
Instructor Behaviors
9% Learner Characteristics
25%
Learner Behaviors
15% Academic
Integration
17% Social-Psych Integration
10%
Other Learner Support
14%
Course/Program Characteristics
9%
Instructor Behaviors
10%
predictors addressed: online only vs. mixed delivery
online only mixed delivery
Connection 18%
Entry 37%
Progress 31%
Completion 14%
differing types of supports X academic cycle
Connection
18%
Entry
39 %
Progress
32%
Completion
11% Connection
17%
Entry
36%
Progress
31%
Completion
16%
academic cycle: community vs. 4-year colleges
community colleges 4-year colleges
Connection
18%
Entry
39%
Progress
37%
Completion
6% Connection
17%
Entry
38%
Progress
31%
Completion
14%
academic cycle: for-profit vs. public
for-profit colleges public colleges
Connection
18%
Entry
36%
Progress
31%
Completion
15 % Connection
16%
Entry
39%
Progress
33%
Completion
12%
academic cycle: open vs. selective admissions
open admissions selective admissions
Connection
15%
Entry
41%
Progress
34%
Completion
10% Connection
20%
Entry
33%
Progress
28%
Completion
19%
academic cycle: online only vs. mixed delivery
online only mixed delivery
17.63%
39.42%
32.37%
10.58%
16.69%
35.74%
31.12%
16.45%
22.67%
38.67%
31.33%
7.33%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Connection
Entry
Progress
Completion
CC
4YR
COMBO
23.74%
14.14%
20.20%
8.08%
9.09%
16.67%
8.08%
22.57%
13.12%
20.73%
10.76%
12.86%
9.71%
10.24%
25.00%
15.00%
17.50%
8.75%
16.25%
8.75%
8.75%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Learner Characteristics
Learner Behaviors
Academic Integration
Social-Psychological Integration
Other Learner Support
Course/Program Characteristics
Instructor Behavior/Characteristics
CC
4YR
COMBO
comparisons: 2-year vs. 4-year vs. both
predictors
academic cycle
comparisons: for-profit vs. public institutions
predictors
academic cycle
18.10%
38.79%
37.07%
6.03%
17.55%
36.78%
30.90%
14.78%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Connection
Entry
Progress
Completion
FOR PROFIT
PUBLIC
32.79%
6.56%
22.95%
14.75%
8.20%
3.28%
11.48%
29.00%
11.00%
16.90%
8.20%
10.54%
16.54%
7.20%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
Learner Characteristics
Learner Behaviors
Academic Integration
Social-Psychological Integration
Other Learner Support
Course/Program Characteristics
Instructor Behavior/Characteristics
FOR PROFIT
PUBLIC
18.16%
35.85%
30.78%
15.21%
15.56%
39.00%
32.68%
11.76%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Connection
Entry
Progress
Completion
SELECTIVE
OPEN
comparisons: open vs. selective admissions
predictors
academic cycle
24.60%
14.68%
17.06%
9.92%
13.89%
9.52%
10.32%
22.26%
13.02%
22.11%
9.58%
11.06%
13.02%
8.85%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Learner Characteristics
Learner Behaviors
Academic Integration
Social-Psychological Integration
Other Learner Support
Course/Program Characteristics
Instructor Behavior/Characteristics
ONLINE ONLY
MIXED DELIVERY
21.21%
13.64%
20.71%
10.61%
13.64%
9.85%
10.35%
26.24%
13.69%
19.39%
8.37%
9.89%
14.45%
7.98%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Learner Characteristics
Learner Behaviors
Academic Integration
Social-Psychological Integration
Other Learner Support
Course/Program Characteristics
Instructor Behavior/Characteristics
SELECTIVE
OPEN
comparisons: online only vs. mixed delivery
predictors
academic cycle
20.27%
32.66%
28.14%
18.93%
15.35%
40.56%
34.23%
9.86%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Connection
Entry
Progress
Completion
ONLINE ONLY
MIXED DELIVERY
learner characteristics
instructor behaviors
academic integration
social-psychological integration
learner behaviors
course characteristics
other support
retention/ progression
modeling retention & progression online
learner characteristics
instructor behaviors
academic integration
social-psychological integration
learner behaviors
course characteristics
other support
retention/ progression
modeling retention & progression online
modeling retention & progression online
learner characteristics
instructor behaviors
academic integration
social-psychological integration
learner behaviors
course characteristics
other support
retention/ progression
Data Driven Institutional Response/Interventions
Data Driven Institutional Response/Interventions
Benefits
Next Steps
Questions?
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