Student Success Matrix (SSM - Home |...

Student Success Matrix (SSMX)

Karen Swan, University of Illinois Springfield Peter Shea, SUNY Mindy Sloan, Ashford University Sandy Daston, PAR

Overview

• Past, present, and (one) future • Four models and their strengths/weaknesses • Current work based in literature, PAR 1 and

current PAR partners • A tentative model for online student retention • One possible future, benefits, next steps • Questions for you

Brief History of Research

• First retention studies followed post-WWII boom • 1960s “dropouts” studied creating first empirical

literature • 1970s, Spady (1971) reviewed literature, created

descriptive theory applying Durkheim’s (1951) theory of suicide

• Using Spady’s work, Tinto (1975) created predictive theory of college dropout behavior

• Bean and Metzner (1985) and others studied non-traditional students – different predictive model

Pre-entry Attributes

Goals/ Commitments

Institutional Experience Integration Goals/

Commitments Outcome

Criticisms of Tinto Model

• Based on assimilation into monolithic culture of higher education

• “Cultural suicide” – students physically and culturally disassociate with past to “survive”

• Critique: Institutions should be more adaptive and responsive to students – “intervene”

• Roots of distinction between “retention” and “persistence” (not the same)

Assumes these as “given”


Where is institutional response? Where are “interventions”?

Why uni-variate outcome?

Pre-entry Attributes

Goals/ Commitments

Institutional Experience Integration Goals/

Commitments Outcome

Non-traditional students

• ‘‘We label none of the thirteen propositions of Tinto’s theory as reliable knowledge [about] commuter colleges and universities” (Braxton & Lee, 2005)

• For “commuter students” social integration is replaced by environmental variables and psychological outcomes (Bean & Metzner, 1985)

Bean & Metzner’s (1985) model for non-traditional students

learner characteristics

academic variables

environmental

variables

academic outcomes

psychological outcomes

decision to Drop-out


psychological outcomes

environmental variables




Retention or Persistence?

• Retention: institutional goal of keeping students enrolled for consecutive semesters until degree completion

• Persistence: individual goal of a student reaching his or her specific educational attainment.

• These are different.

Important?

“In a national sample, approximately 59% of BA recipients graduated from a different college than the first institution they attended”

(National Center for Education Statistics [NCES], 2003).

Implication: Institutions will fail to “retain”

students most of the time

Retention or Persistence?

• Colleges and universities retain students, while students persist to a goal.

• Assumption underlying retention is retention to degree from original institution

• Individual student’s goal are different • Student may successfully persist to a goal without

being retained to graduation • “Educational attainment” - term used to capture

the variability of students’ goals and disentangle retention and persistence

Interventions: For Retention or Persistence?

Still assumes these as “given” ?

Still assumes these as “given” ?


(Falcone, 2012)

Empirical v Conceptual Models

• Previous models have been largely based on conceptual work

• Opportunities exist to test these empirically • Analytics clearly one way • Other ways too, for example:

National Empirical Results Interventions targeted toward: • preventing delayed entry to college • increasing part-timers’ level of enrollment • boosting financial aid in community colleges • reducing students’ work hours have the greatest numerical potential for improving

completion rates. Caveat: National results don’t tell me about me

What’s Missing?

• We need new models • Neither “traditional” nor “commuters” • Need the model to be explicit:

– Online + Classroom + Blended – Institutional response/interventions – Retention/persistence – Multivariate outcomes – Conceptual but empirically testable “here”

predictors learner characteristics

learner behaviors academic integration

social-psychological integration other learner support

course/program characteristics instructors behaviors

research literature PAR POC findings partners experience

time connection entry progress completion

academic cycle program/

course

Learner Characteristics

22%

Learner Behaviors

15%

Academic Integration

19%

Social-Psych Integration

10%

Other Learner Support

13%

Course/Program Characteristics

12%

Instructor Behaviors

9%

differing types of supports X predictors addressed


24%

Learner Behaviors

14%


20%


8%


9%


17%


8 %


23%

Learner Behaviors

13%


21%


11%


13%


10%


10%

predictors addressed: community vs. 4-year colleges

community colleges 4-year colleges


29%

Learner Behaviors

11% Academic

Integration

17%


8%


11%


17%


7% Learner

Characteristics

33%

Learner Behaviors,

7% Academic Integration

23%


15%


8%

Course/Program Characteristics,

3% Instructor Behavior

11 %

predictors addressed: for-profit vs. public

for-profit colleges public colleges

predictors addressed: open vs. selective admissions


26%

Learner Behaviors

14%


19 %


8%


10%


14%


8% Learner Characteristics

21%

Learner Behaviors

14%


21%


11%


14%


10%


10%

open admissions selective admissions


22%

Learner Behaviors

13%


22%


10%


11%


13%


9% Learner Characteristics

25%

Learner Behaviors

15% Academic

Integration

17% Social-Psych Integration

10%


14%


9%


10%

predictors addressed: online only vs. mixed delivery

online only mixed delivery

Connection 18%

Entry 37%

Progress 31%

Completion 14%

differing types of supports X academic cycle

Connection

18%

Entry

39 %

Progress

32%

Completion

11% Connection

17%

Entry

36%

Progress

31%

Completion

16%

academic cycle: community vs. 4-year colleges

community colleges 4-year colleges

Connection

18%

Entry

39%

Progress

37%

Completion

6% Connection

17%

Entry

38%

Progress

31%

Completion

14%

academic cycle: for-profit vs. public

for-profit colleges public colleges

Connection

18%

Entry

36%

Progress

31%

Completion

15 % Connection

16%

Entry

39%

Progress

33%

Completion

12%

academic cycle: open vs. selective admissions

open admissions selective admissions

Connection

15%

Entry

41%

Progress

34%

Completion

10% Connection

20%

Entry

33%

Progress

28%

Completion

19%

academic cycle: online only vs. mixed delivery

online only mixed delivery

17.63%

39.42%

32.37%

10.58%

16.69%

35.74%

31.12%

16.45%

22.67%

38.67%

31.33%

7.33%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Connection

Entry

Progress

Completion

CC

4YR

COMBO

23.74%

14.14%

20.20%

8.08%

9.09%

16.67%

8.08%

22.57%

13.12%

20.73%

10.76%

12.86%

9.71%

10.24%

25.00%

15.00%

17.50%

8.75%

16.25%

8.75%

8.75%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%


Learner Behaviors


Social-Psychological Integration



Instructor Behavior/Characteristics

CC

4YR

COMBO

comparisons: 2-year vs. 4-year vs. both

predictors

academic cycle

comparisons: for-profit vs. public institutions

predictors

academic cycle

18.10%

38.79%

37.07%

6.03%

17.55%

36.78%

30.90%

14.78%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Connection

Entry

Progress

Completion

FOR PROFIT

PUBLIC

32.79%

6.56%

22.95%

14.75%

8.20%

3.28%

11.48%

29.00%

11.00%

16.90%

8.20%

10.54%

16.54%

7.20%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%


Learner Behaviors






FOR PROFIT

PUBLIC

18.16%

35.85%

30.78%

15.21%

15.56%

39.00%

32.68%

11.76%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Connection

Entry

Progress

Completion

SELECTIVE

OPEN

comparisons: open vs. selective admissions

predictors

academic cycle

24.60%

14.68%

17.06%

9.92%

13.89%

9.52%

10.32%

22.26%

13.02%

22.11%

9.58%

11.06%

13.02%

8.85%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%


Learner Behaviors






ONLINE ONLY

MIXED DELIVERY

21.21%

13.64%

20.71%

10.61%

13.64%

9.85%

10.35%

26.24%

13.69%

19.39%

8.37%

9.89%

14.45%

7.98%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%


Learner Behaviors






SELECTIVE

OPEN

comparisons: online only vs. mixed delivery

predictors

academic cycle

20.27%

32.66%

28.14%

18.93%

15.35%

40.56%

34.23%

9.86%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Connection

Entry

Progress

Completion

ONLINE ONLY

MIXED DELIVERY


instructor behaviors

academic integration

social-psychological integration

learner behaviors

course characteristics

other support

retention/ progression

modeling retention & progression online

modeling retention & progression online


instructor behaviors

academic integration

social-psychological integration

learner behaviors

course characteristics

other support

retention/ progression

Data Driven Institutional Response/Interventions

Data Driven Institutional Response/Interventions

Benefits

Next Steps

Questions?

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