Security of the Ultimate High GroundPreventing Arms Race in Outer Space
Manpreet Sethi, Ph.DSenior Fellow
Centre for Strategic and International Studies
New Delhi
WAAS, 19 Oct 2008, Hyderabad
Present Reality Outer space more integral to Earth than
ever before Increasing number of space assets
‘Critical’ Civilian applications ‘Vital’ Military uses, incl nuclear deterrence
Increasing number of space faring nations Increasing inter-state commercial
relations for use of outer space
Challenges to Space Security National Ambitions
Doctrines of dominance & denial BMD, ASAT & Weaponisation of space Galloping technological developments on
types of space weapons Use of space for asymmetric warfare –
space disruption easier than space control Mistrust and lack of transparency and
confidence
Challenges to Space Security Lack of International Consensus
Divergent state priorities Stalemate at CD
FMCT Vs PAROSLukewarm response to PPWT
Lack of focus at COPOUS
Challenges to Space Security Legal Lacunae
Outpaced by technological developments
Limitations of OST, 1967 Different interpretations of ‘peaceful
use’, ‘outer space’ US opposition to new legal regimes
Challenges to Space Security Environmental Concerns
Generation of uncontrolled space debris Routine space activity Intentional destruction of satellites
Overcrowding in some key orbits Long term impact of induction of satellites Possibility of satellite malfunction and
associated dangers to earth and atmosphere
Comparison with Nuclear Situation Intentions of disarmament taken over by
technological push Status and Prestige of NW Lack of transparency, confidence and trust in
inter-state relations Inevitability of arms race Offence-Defence spiral Inevitability of proliferation “Impossible to achieve effectively verifiable
and meaningful disarmament”
Preventing Arms Race in Outer Space Need for collective action
Equal vulnerability of all space faring nations Need for multilateral mechanisms to
Place limits on militarisation Ban weaponisation
Better inter-state relations for political action Acceptance of common code of conduct
Very difficult to stop proliferation later Act now to ensure secure & sustainable access
to & use of outer space
History doesn’t repeat itself but it does rhyme a lot – Mark TwainAs nations dilly dally
Technology continues to rally
New capabilities, new weapons
Security of mankind they threaten
‘Freedom of action’ is the basic desire
It translates into dominance and denial
Space power is the name of the game
Proliferation – we’ll get more of the same!!