Security of the Ultimate High GroundPreventing Arms Race in Outer Space

Manpreet Sethi, Ph.DSenior Fellow

Centre for Strategic and International Studies

New Delhi

WAAS, 19 Oct 2008, Hyderabad

Present Reality Outer space more integral to Earth than

ever before Increasing number of space assets

‘Critical’ Civilian applications ‘Vital’ Military uses, incl nuclear deterrence

Increasing number of space faring nations Increasing inter-state commercial

relations for use of outer space

Challenges to Space Security National Ambitions

Doctrines of dominance & denial BMD, ASAT & Weaponisation of space Galloping technological developments on

types of space weapons Use of space for asymmetric warfare –

space disruption easier than space control Mistrust and lack of transparency and

confidence

Challenges to Space Security Lack of International Consensus

Divergent state priorities Stalemate at CD

FMCT Vs PAROSLukewarm response to PPWT

Lack of focus at COPOUS

Challenges to Space Security Legal Lacunae

Outpaced by technological developments

Limitations of OST, 1967 Different interpretations of ‘peaceful

use’, ‘outer space’ US opposition to new legal regimes

Challenges to Space Security Environmental Concerns

Generation of uncontrolled space debris Routine space activity Intentional destruction of satellites

Overcrowding in some key orbits Long term impact of induction of satellites Possibility of satellite malfunction and

associated dangers to earth and atmosphere

Comparison with Nuclear Situation Intentions of disarmament taken over by

technological push Status and Prestige of NW Lack of transparency, confidence and trust in

inter-state relations Inevitability of arms race Offence-Defence spiral Inevitability of proliferation “Impossible to achieve effectively verifiable

and meaningful disarmament”

Preventing Arms Race in Outer Space Need for collective action

Equal vulnerability of all space faring nations Need for multilateral mechanisms to

Place limits on militarisation Ban weaponisation

Better inter-state relations for political action Acceptance of common code of conduct

Very difficult to stop proliferation later Act now to ensure secure & sustainable access

to & use of outer space

History doesn’t repeat itself but it does rhyme a lot – Mark TwainAs nations dilly dally

Technology continues to rally

New capabilities, new weapons

Security of mankind they threaten

‘Freedom of action’ is the basic desire

It translates into dominance and denial

Space power is the name of the game

Proliferation – we’ll get more of the same!!