2
THE U.S. OPPORTUNITY CLEAN ENERGY NO LONGER ‘BOUTIQUE’
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
LEV
ELI
ZED
CO
ST
OF E
NER
GY
($
/MW
h)*
*
CU
MU
LATI
VE C
AP
AC
ITY
(G
W)
WIND COST & DEPLOYMENT
*Capacity - American Wind Energy Association 2015 Annual Market Report **LCOE - Lazard's Levelized Cost of Energy Analysis 2008-2015, avg. of high/low figures
Prices down
60% since 2009
Capacity more
than doubled
since 2009
3
THE U.S. OPPORTUNITY CLEAN ENERGY NO LONGER ‘BOUTIQUE’
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
LEV
ELI
ZED
CO
ST
OF E
NER
GY
($
/MW
h)*
*
CU
MU
LATI
VE C
AP
AC
ITY
(G
W)
SOLAR COST & DEPLOYMENT
*Capacity - GTM/SEIA Solar Market Insight Annual Report 2015 **LCOE - Lazard's Levelized Cost of Energy Analysis 2008-2014, technology-weighted avg. of high/low ranges
Prices down
more than 80% since 2009
Capacity
increased 20X
since 2009
4
THE U.S. OPPORTUNITY STATE COMMITMENTS
CA: 50% by 2030
HI: 100% by 2045
VT: 75% by 2032
NY: 50% by 2030
5
THE U.S. OPPORTUNITY RENEWABLES REPLACING FOSSIL FUELS
12,500 MW of renewables ADDED
13,700 MW of fossil fuels RETIRED
6
THE U.S. OPPORTUNITY CO2 DECOUPLING
Source: Center for American Progress
9
THE GLOBAL OPPORTUNITY COUNTRY/REGIONAL COMMITMENTS
EU
20% renewables by 2020
Denmark
100% renewables by 2050
Sweden
49% renewables by 2020 (already met)
13
A SUITE OF FLEXIBILITY OPTIONS
Increasing Need for Grid Flexibility
High Cost
Low Cost
Flexibility Resource Supply Curve
Graphic adapted from: Paul Denholm et al., “The Role of Energy Storage with Renewable Electricity Generation” (NREL, January 2010).
High Cost
Low Cost
20
GRID INFRASTRUCTURE
TRANSMISSION
Regional optimization
Geographic diversity
Technological diversity
22
GRID INFRASTRUCTURE GEOGRAPHIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL DIVERSITY
M. Jacobson, M. Delucchi. “A Path to Sustainable Energy by 2030.” Scientific American. 2009
Managing predictable variations
23
FAST RAMPING SUPPLY IMPROVE FOSSIL FLEXIBILITY
Use only existing gas
capacity
Use only for power, not
energy
24
FAST RAMPING SUPPLY
New natural gas WILL NOT get us to
our emissions reduction goals
Duke Energy (Flickr)
27
CURTAILMENT THE MOST EXPENSIVE OPTION
0123456789
10
BaselineTarget HighSolar
Baseline Target HighSolar
Cu
rtai
lme
nt
(%)
Enhanced flexibility
Conventional flexibility
Source: G. Brinkman, California Low-Carbon Grid Study, Presentation to RETI 2.0 Stakeholder Meeting, April 18, 2016.
Flexibility is key to reducing curtailment
28
CURTAILMENT …OR LONG -TERM ELASTICITY?
Data Processing
Battery Electric Vehicles
Air Gases
Desalinization
Time of use rates
29
HOW TO WIN
1. Reward utilities for providing energy services
2. Keep RPS going
3. (not) Net Metering
4. Demand and supply compete as equals
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab
30
HOW TO WIN
5. Value fast on/off capabilities
6. Optimize the existing grid
7. Employ investment-grade policies
8. Reduce siting conflicts
MSTI Review Project
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