Postsecondary College and Workforce Outcomes among
Baltimore City Graduates
Rachel E. Durham & Faith ConnollyBERC
MLDS Center Research SeriesNovember 3, 2016
Background
Goal: To partner with Baltimore’s Promise to respond to questions about City Schools college and career experiences.
Goal: To create a cross functional group of individuals interested and providing programs for these youth.
Research Questions
• What educational and employment pathways
are followed by those who complete high
school? Alone or in combination, how are
graduates engaged in:
o Full-time or part-time work
oCertificate program enrollment
o 2-year or 4-year degree enrollment
Research Questions
• How do work experiences and earnings vary
among young people along different pathways?
(e.g., CTE completion, college enrollment, type
of college attended, degrees earned, etc.)
Data Source
• Maryland Longitudinal Data System (MLDS)• “The purpose of the Maryland Longitudinal Data System (MLDS) is to
generate timely and accurate information about student performance
that can be used to improve the State’s education system and guide
decision makers at all levels. To accomplish this task, the MLDS
collects and organizes individual-level student and workforce data
from all levels of education and the State’s workforce.”
(source: https://mldscenter.maryland.gov/Aboutus.html)
3,883 4,265 4,402 4,576 4,523 4,437 4,291 3,855Number of Graduates
Population
Baltimore Public City Schools Graduates2007-08 through 2014-15
?
61.565.8 66.5 68.5 69.7 69.5
0
25
50
75
100
2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15
Ninth Grade Cohort Graduation Rate
?
DRAFT - as of Sept 30, 2016Graduation rate source: mdreportcard.org
Career-Technology Education
24 2521 22
25 2429
33
0.0
25.0
50.0
75.0
100.0
2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15
Percent of Graduates who Completed a CTE Program
DRAFT - as of Sept 30, 2016
Career-Technology EducationPercentage in CIP Concentration Area, Baltimore City Graduates,
Classes 2008 through 2015 (N=8,619)
1
3 44
4
5
7
8 8
12
1314
16
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
Perc
ent,
2008
-201
5
Agr Sci Ed
Hosp/rec/hotel mgmt
Media
Information Tech
Cometology/Barbering
Food Prod/Catering/Mgmt
Engineering
Teacher/Childcare Ed
Paralegal/Protective/CLJ/EmergencyResponseConstruction/Elec/Plumbing/Carpntry
Auto/Mech/Repair/Welding/Machinery
Health/Medical/Nursing
Admin/Accounting/Office/Finance/Mkting
Other (Coop Ed, Career Research)< 1%
DRAFT - as of Sept 30, 2016
Enrollment in College
31 28 25 22 21 20 19 23
20 2325
25 25 24 2320
0.0
25.0
50.0
75.0
100.0
2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15
Percent Enrolling in College the Fall after High School Graduation
4-year IHE 2-year IHE
DRAFT - as of Sept 30, 2016
Persistence in CollegePercent of graduates enrolled (2-yr and 4-yr IHE) within 16 months after high school graduation, and each following year.
70
58
51
43
31
18
3
63
44
35
25
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
First 16 Mo Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7
Class of 2008
Class of 2009
Class of 2010
Class of 2011
DRAFT - as of Sept 30, 2016
Degree CompletionsWhat percent of ever-enrolled graduates completed a Bachelor’s Degree over time?
9 8 7 7
8 8 7 6
3 3
0.0
25.0
50.0
75.0
100.0
2008 (N=2,718) 2009 (N=2,990) 2010 (N=2,962) 2011 (N=2,907)
Year 6
Year 5
Year 4
Year 3
Year 2
First 16 mos23 19
15 14
DRAFT - as of Sept 30, 2016
Degree CompletionsWhat percent of those who first enrolled in a 4-year IHE completed a Bachelor’s Degree each year?
19 18 19 20
15 16 15 15
6 63
0.0
25.0
50.0
75.0
100.0
2008 (N=1,210) 2009 (N=1,223) 2010 (N=1,085) 2011 (N=1,036)
Year 7
Year 6
Year 5
Year 4
Year 3
Year 2
First 16 mos
45%
42%
35% 36%
N is how many started at a 4-year college
DRAFT - as of Sept 30, 2016
Degree CompletionsWhat percent of ever-enrolled students completed an Associate’s Degree each year?
1 1 1 10.0
25.0
50.0
2008 (N=2,718) 2009 (N=2,990) 2010 (N=2,962) 2011 (N=2,907)
Year 6
Year 5
Year 4
Year 3
Year 2
First 16 mos
N is count who enrolled in any MD college
DRAFT - as of Sept 30, 2016
Degree CompletionsWhat percent of students who first enrolled in 2-year IHEs completed a Bachelor’s Degree each year?
21 1 1
2
0.0
25.0
50.0
2008 (N=790) 2009 (N=984) 2010 (N=1,113) 2011 (N=1,174)
Year 6
Year 5
Year 4
Year 3
Year 2
First 16 mos
6%3%
2% 2%N is how many started at a 2-year college
DRAFT - as of Sept 30, 2016
After high school: college or work?
3227 28 28 26 26 25
15 23 22 22 24 24 23
17
22 22 23 27 29 29
3729 28 26 23 22 22
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14
Graduating Class
% Neither enrolled nor working % Enrolled and working % Working, not enrolled % Enrolled, not working
In the fall after high school graduation:
DRAFT - as of Sept 30, 2016
College type and employment
49
43 42 44
59 5854 55
51
57 58 56
41 4246 45
0.0
25.0
50.0
75.0
100.0
2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14Graduating Cohort
Enrolled at a 2-year IHE Enrolled at a 4-year IHE
% Enrolled, not working % Enrolled and working
DRAFT - as of Sept 30, 2016
Labor Force ParticipationWhat percent of City Schools graduating classes can be found in wage data in the years after high school?
5961
66 68 69
73 73
64
7174 74
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8
Class of 2008 Class of 2009 Class of 2010 Class of 2011 Class of 2012
DRAFT - as of Sept 30, 2016
Annual EarningsWhat are each Class’s median annual earnings in the years after high school graduation?
$1,248
$7,885
$10,351
$635
$3,994
$5,670
$7,654
$9,724$9,498
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
Year1 Year2 Year3 Year4 Year5 Year6 Year 7 Year 8
Class of 2008
Class of 2009
Class of 2010
Class of 2011
Class of 2012
DRAFT - as of Sept 30, 2016
Opportunity cost of college?Are median annual wages higher for students enrolled in college by16 months after HS graduation?
$274$748
$3,125$3,655
$4,090
$6,019$6,464
$6,944
$9,496
$11,608$11,865
$560
$2,486
$4,364
$5,725
$8,846
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
$14,000
Year1 Year2 Year3 Year4 Year5 Year6 Year 7 Year 8
2008, not enrolled
2009, not enrolled
2010, not enrolled
2008, yes enrolled
2009, yes enrolled
2010, yes enrolled
DRAFT - as of Sept 30, 2016
Wage benefit for CTE Completers?
$409
$1,632
$3,287
$4,690
$6,590
$8,639
$1,539
$4,165
$6,756
$9,039
$10,621
$12,907
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
Year1 Year2 Year3 Year4 Year5 Year6
2008, No CTE
2009, No CTE
2010, No CTE
2008, Yes CTE
2009, Yes CTE
2010, Yes CTE
Graduating Class
DRAFT - as of Sept 30, 2016
Future
Next Steps for Research:
• Outcomes for non-high school graduates?
• How well do CTE programs prepare students for local employment opportunities?
• How do employment and enrollment intensity relate to degree completion?
• Is the composition of graduating cohorts changing over time?
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