Postsecondary College and Workforce Outcomes among

Baltimore City Graduates

Rachel E. Durham & Faith ConnollyBERC

MLDS Center Research SeriesNovember 3, 2016

Background

Goal: To partner with Baltimore’s Promise to respond to questions about City Schools college and career experiences.

Goal: To create a cross functional group of individuals interested and providing programs for these youth.

Research Questions

• What educational and employment pathways

are followed by those who complete high

school? Alone or in combination, how are

graduates engaged in:

o Full-time or part-time work

oCertificate program enrollment

o 2-year or 4-year degree enrollment

Research Questions

• How do work experiences and earnings vary

among young people along different pathways?

(e.g., CTE completion, college enrollment, type

of college attended, degrees earned, etc.)

Data Source

• Maryland Longitudinal Data System (MLDS)• “The purpose of the Maryland Longitudinal Data System (MLDS) is to

generate timely and accurate information about student performance

that can be used to improve the State’s education system and guide

decision makers at all levels. To accomplish this task, the MLDS

collects and organizes individual-level student and workforce data

from all levels of education and the State’s workforce.”

(source: https://mldscenter.maryland.gov/Aboutus.html)

3,883 4,265 4,402 4,576 4,523 4,437 4,291 3,855Number of Graduates

Population

Baltimore Public City Schools Graduates2007-08 through 2014-15

?

61.565.8 66.5 68.5 69.7 69.5

0

25

50

75

100

2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15

Ninth Grade Cohort Graduation Rate

?

DRAFT - as of Sept 30, 2016Graduation rate source: mdreportcard.org

Career-Technology Education

24 2521 22

25 2429

33

0.0

25.0

50.0

75.0

100.0

2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15

Percent of Graduates who Completed a CTE Program

DRAFT - as of Sept 30, 2016

Career-Technology EducationPercentage in CIP Concentration Area, Baltimore City Graduates,

Classes 2008 through 2015 (N=8,619)

1

3 44

4

5

7

8 8

12

1314

16

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

Perc

ent,

2008

-201

5

Agr Sci Ed

Hosp/rec/hotel mgmt

Media

Information Tech

Cometology/Barbering

Food Prod/Catering/Mgmt

Engineering

Teacher/Childcare Ed

Paralegal/Protective/CLJ/EmergencyResponseConstruction/Elec/Plumbing/Carpntry

Auto/Mech/Repair/Welding/Machinery

Health/Medical/Nursing

Admin/Accounting/Office/Finance/Mkting

Other (Coop Ed, Career Research)< 1%

DRAFT - as of Sept 30, 2016

Enrollment in College

31 28 25 22 21 20 19 23

20 2325

25 25 24 2320

0.0

25.0

50.0

75.0

100.0

2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15

Percent Enrolling in College the Fall after High School Graduation

4-year IHE 2-year IHE

DRAFT - as of Sept 30, 2016

Persistence in CollegePercent of graduates enrolled (2-yr and 4-yr IHE) within 16 months after high school graduation, and each following year.

70

58

51

43

31

18

3

63

44

35

25

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

First 16 Mo Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7

Class of 2008

Class of 2009

Class of 2010

Class of 2011

DRAFT - as of Sept 30, 2016

Degree CompletionsWhat percent of ever-enrolled graduates completed a Bachelor’s Degree over time?

9 8 7 7

8 8 7 6

3 3

0.0

25.0

50.0

75.0

100.0

2008 (N=2,718) 2009 (N=2,990) 2010 (N=2,962) 2011 (N=2,907)

Year 6

Year 5

Year 4

Year 3

Year 2

First 16 mos23 19

15 14

DRAFT - as of Sept 30, 2016

Degree CompletionsWhat percent of those who first enrolled in a 4-year IHE completed a Bachelor’s Degree each year?

19 18 19 20

15 16 15 15

6 63

0.0

25.0

50.0

75.0

100.0

2008 (N=1,210) 2009 (N=1,223) 2010 (N=1,085) 2011 (N=1,036)

Year 7

Year 6

Year 5

Year 4

Year 3

Year 2

First 16 mos

45%

42%

35% 36%

N is how many started at a 4-year college

DRAFT - as of Sept 30, 2016

Degree CompletionsWhat percent of ever-enrolled students completed an Associate’s Degree each year?

1 1 1 10.0

25.0

50.0

2008 (N=2,718) 2009 (N=2,990) 2010 (N=2,962) 2011 (N=2,907)

Year 6

Year 5

Year 4

Year 3

Year 2

First 16 mos

N is count who enrolled in any MD college

DRAFT - as of Sept 30, 2016

Degree CompletionsWhat percent of students who first enrolled in 2-year IHEs completed a Bachelor’s Degree each year?

21 1 1

2

0.0

25.0

50.0

2008 (N=790) 2009 (N=984) 2010 (N=1,113) 2011 (N=1,174)

Year 6

Year 5

Year 4

Year 3

Year 2

First 16 mos

6%3%

2% 2%N is how many started at a 2-year college

DRAFT - as of Sept 30, 2016

After high school: college or work?

3227 28 28 26 26 25

15 23 22 22 24 24 23

17

22 22 23 27 29 29

3729 28 26 23 22 22

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14

Graduating Class

% Neither enrolled nor working % Enrolled and working % Working, not enrolled % Enrolled, not working

In the fall after high school graduation:

DRAFT - as of Sept 30, 2016

College type and employment

49

43 42 44

59 5854 55

51

57 58 56

41 4246 45

0.0

25.0

50.0

75.0

100.0

2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14Graduating Cohort

Enrolled at a 2-year IHE Enrolled at a 4-year IHE

% Enrolled, not working % Enrolled and working

DRAFT - as of Sept 30, 2016

Labor Force ParticipationWhat percent of City Schools graduating classes can be found in wage data in the years after high school?

5961

66 68 69

73 73

64

7174 74

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8

Class of 2008 Class of 2009 Class of 2010 Class of 2011 Class of 2012

DRAFT - as of Sept 30, 2016

Annual EarningsWhat are each Class’s median annual earnings in the years after high school graduation?

$1,248

$7,885

$10,351

$635

$3,994

$5,670

$7,654

$9,724$9,498

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

Year1 Year2 Year3 Year4 Year5 Year6 Year 7 Year 8

Class of 2008

Class of 2009

Class of 2010

Class of 2011

Class of 2012

DRAFT - as of Sept 30, 2016

Opportunity cost of college?Are median annual wages higher for students enrolled in college by16 months after HS graduation?

$274$748

$3,125$3,655

$4,090

$6,019$6,464

$6,944

$9,496

$11,608$11,865

$560

$2,486

$4,364

$5,725

$8,846

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

Year1 Year2 Year3 Year4 Year5 Year6 Year 7 Year 8

2008, not enrolled

2009, not enrolled

2010, not enrolled

2008, yes enrolled

2009, yes enrolled

2010, yes enrolled

DRAFT - as of Sept 30, 2016

Wage benefit for CTE Completers?

$409

$1,632

$3,287

$4,690

$6,590

$8,639

$1,539

$4,165

$6,756

$9,039

$10,621

$12,907

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

Year1 Year2 Year3 Year4 Year5 Year6

2008, No CTE

2009, No CTE

2010, No CTE

2008, Yes CTE

2009, Yes CTE

2010, Yes CTE

Graduating Class

DRAFT - as of Sept 30, 2016

Future

Next Steps for Research:

• Outcomes for non-high school graduates?

• How well do CTE programs prepare students for local employment opportunities?

• How do employment and enrollment intensity relate to degree completion?

• Is the composition of graduating cohorts changing over time?