OSIPP / Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University
Japan’s Postwar EconomyJapan’s Postwar Economy
Toshihiko Hayashi
[email protected]://www.hayashiland.com
Osaka School of International Public Policy
Osaka University
OSIPP / Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University
The Size of Japan’s Economy
Only US and Japan have more than 100 million population among advanced economies.
Only US and Japan have per capita GDP over 30 thousand dollars among OECD nations.
US and Japan take up 40 % of world GDP. Average grwoth rate over past 30 years: Japan 268%,
US 258%. Average growth rate over past decade: Japan 16%, U
S 37%.
OSIPP / Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University
Average Distance between People (m)
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
Austral i a
Canada
Russi a
New Zeal and
US
Mal aysi a
Myanmar
Spai n
Indonesi a
France
Thai l and
Chi na
I tal y
Germany
Bri tai n
Indi a
Japan
Netherl and
Korea
OSIPP / Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University
■ GDP per Capita (1998)GDP per Capita (1998)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
Dollar
at currentexchange rate
at PPP
OSIPP / Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University
■ Passenger Car Production (1998)Passenger Car Production (1998)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
OSIPP / Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University
■ Average Life ExpectancyAverage Life Expectancy
0102030405060708090
Male
Female
OSIPP / Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University
■ Crime RatesCrime Rates
Rate of Incidence Arrest Rate(%)Serious Crimes 1990 1996 1990 1996
United States 5,820 5,079 21.6 21.8United Kingdom 8,630 9,360 31.6 26.5Germany 7,108 8,125 47.0 49.0France 6,169 6,110 37.5 30.2Japan 1,324 1,440 42.3 40.6
OSIPP / Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University
■ Arrest RatesArrest Rates
Rate of Incidence Arrest Rate(%)Homicides 1990 1996 1990 1996
United States 9.4 7.4 67.2 66.9United Kingdom 2.3 2.6 92.0 91.0Germany 3.9 4.3 94.2 92.1France 4.5 4.1 77.2 74.9Japan 1.0 1.0 96.7 98.5
OSIPP / Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University
■ Food Self-Sufficiency Rate (%)Food Self-Sufficiency Rate (%)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
OSIPP / Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University
■ Growth Rates of Japan’s Real GDPGrowth Rates of Japan’s Real GDP
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16%
OSIPP / Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University
■ High Growth: EnvironmentHigh Growth: Environment
◆Postwar World Free Trade System ・ IMF, GATT, World Bank
◆Technology ・ Heavy, Petrochemical Industry ・ Catch-up
◆Natural Resources ・ Relatively Abundant World Resources
OSIPP / Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University
■ High Growth: EngineHigh Growth: Engine
◆Labor Force
・ Demographic Configuration, Education, Social Mobility
◆Capital Formation
・ “ Investment Calls for Investment”, High Domestic Saving
◆Social Overhead Capital
・ Private/Social Capital, FILP
OSIPP / Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University
■ High Growth: Efficiency and EquityHigh Growth: Efficiency and Equity
◆Productivity Increase
・ Technology Transfer, Industrial Configuration ◆Man-machine Relationship
・ Technological Progress, Robots ◆Japanese Management
・ Life Time Employment, Main Bank System, Organizational Hierarchy
◆Income Distribution
・ Fruit of Growth, Equitable Wealth Distribution
OSIPP / Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University
■ High Growth: Government PolicyHigh Growth: Government Policy
◆ From Reconstruction to Catch-up
・ Teachers Around, Desire to Catch-up
◆ Macroeconomic Stabilization Policy
・ Keynesian Fiscal and Monetary Policy
◆ Industrial Policy
・ Priority Allocation of Scarce Resources
・ Encourage Growth-Mitigate Decline
OSIPP / Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University
■ High Growth: Why?High Growth: Why?
◆Why Fevered?
・ Driving Force, Social Ethos, Escape into Busy-ness
◆A Turnpike Theorem
・ Distant Destination, Turnpike, Self-Assurance, Meaning of Life
OSIPP / Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University
■ The Lost DecadeThe Lost Decade
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
%
GDP
Deflator
OSIPP / Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University
■ Bubble and Its AftermathBubble and Its Aftermath
◆From Stable Growth to Bubble ・ Asset Price, Self-perpetuating
Expectation ◆Bubble Burst
・ Asset Price Fall ◆Vicious Cycle
・ Negative Asset Effect, Shattered Expectation
◆Old Keynesian Prescription ・ Fiscal Stimulus
OSIPP / Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University
■ Unemployment Historically HighUnemployment Historically High
Unemployment Rate
0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.0
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
%
OSIPP / Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University
■ Government Debt AccumulatesGovernment Debt Accumulates
National Debt as % of GDP
0.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.0
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
OSIPP / Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University
■ Bank Failures UnprecedentedBank Failures Unprecedented
Number of Banks Failed
05
101520253035
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
OSIPP / Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University
■ Towards a New EconomyTowards a New Economy
◆Structural Change ・ Political System, Government Reform,
Industrial Restructuring
◆New Sense of Direction ・ Social Concern and Participation, Private Initiative
◆New Economy ・ Information Technology, Quality of Life, Environment, Welfare, Sustainable Growth
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