OSIPP / Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University Japan’s...

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OSIPP / Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University Japans Postwar Economy Toshihiko Hayashi toshihiko@hayashiland.com http://www.hayashiland.com Osaka School of International Public Policy Osaka University Slide 2 OSIPP / Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University The Size of Japan s Economy Only US and Japan have more than 100 million population among advanced economies. Only US and Japan have per capita GDP over 30 thousand dollars among OECD nations. US and Japan take up 40 % of world GDP. Average grwoth rate over past 30 years: Japan 268%, US 258%. Average growth rate over past decade: Japan 16%, US 37%. Slide 3 OSIPP / Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University Average Distance between People (m) Slide 4 OSIPP / Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University GDP per Capita (1998) GDP per Capita (1998) Slide 5 OSIPP / Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University Passenger Car Production (1998) Passenger Car Production (1998) Slide 6 OSIPP / Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University Average Life Expectancy Average Life Expectancy Slide 7 OSIPP / Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University Crime Rates Crime Rates Slide 8 OSIPP / Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University Arrest Rates Arrest Rates Slide 9 OSIPP / Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University Food Self-Sufficiency Rate (%) Food Self-Sufficiency Rate (%) Slide 10 OSIPP / Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University Growth Rates of Japans Real GDP Growth Rates of Japans Real GDP Slide 11 OSIPP / Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University High Growth: Environment High Growth: Environment Postwar World Free Trade System IMF, GATT, World Bank Technology Heavy, Petrochemical Industry Catch-up Natural Resources Relatively Abundant World Resources Slide 12 OSIPP / Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University High Growth: Engine High Growth: Engine Labor Force Demographic Configuration, Education, Social Mobility Capital Formation Investment Calls for Investment, High Domestic Saving Social Overhead Capital Private/Social Capital, FILP Slide 13 OSIPP / Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University High Growth: Efficiency and Equity High Growth: Efficiency and Equity Productivity Increase Technology Transfer, Industrial Configuration Man-machine Relationship Technological Progress, Robots Japanese Management Life Time Employment, Main Bank System, Organizational Hierarchy Income Distribution Fruit of Growth, Equitable Wealth Distribution Slide 14 OSIPP / Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University High Growth: Government Policy High Growth: Government Policy From Reconstruction to Catch-up Teachers Around, Desire to Catch-up Macroeconomic Stabilization Policy Keynesian Fiscal and Monetary Policy Industrial Policy Priority Allocation of Scarce Resources Encourage Growth-Mitigate Decline Slide 15 OSIPP / Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University High Growth: Why? High Growth: Why? Why Fevered? Driving Force, Social Ethos, Escape into Busy-ness A Turnpike Theorem Distant Destination, Turnpike, Self- Assurance, Meaning of Life Slide 16 OSIPP / Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University The Lost Decade The Lost Decade Slide 17 OSIPP / Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University Bubble and Its Aftermath Bubble and Its Aftermath From Stable Growth to Bubble Asset Price, Self-perpetuating Expectation Bubble Burst Asset Price Fall Vicious Cycle Negative Asset Effect, Shattered Expectation Old Keynesian Prescription Fiscal Stimulus Slide 18 OSIPP / Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University Unemployment Historically High Unemployment Historically High Slide 19 OSIPP / Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University Government Debt Accumulates Government Debt Accumulates Slide 20 OSIPP / Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University Bank Failures Unprecedented Bank Failures Unprecedented Slide 21 OSIPP / Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University Towards a New Economy Towards a New Economy Structural Change Political System, Government Reform, Industrial Restructuring New Sense of Direction Social Concern and Participation, Private Initiative New Economy Information Technology, Quality of Life, Environment, Welfare, Sustainable Growth