OSIPP / Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University Japan’s Postwar Economy...

OSIPP / Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University

Japan’s Postwar EconomyJapan’s Postwar Economy

Toshihiko 　 Hayashi

[email protected]://www.hayashiland.com

Osaka School of International Public Policy

Osaka University


The Size of Japan’s Economy

Only US and Japan have more than 100 million population among advanced economies.

Only US and Japan have per capita GDP over 30 thousand dollars among OECD nations.

US and Japan take up 40 % of world GDP. Average grwoth rate over past 30 years: Japan 268%,

US 258%. Average growth rate over past decade: Japan 16%, U

S 37%.


Average Distance between People (m)

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

Austral i a

Canada

Russi a

New Zeal and

US

Mal aysi a

Myanmar

Spai n

Indonesi a

France

Thai l and

Chi na

I tal y

Germany

Bri tai n

Indi a

Japan

Netherl and

Korea


■ 　 GDP per Capita (1998)GDP per Capita (1998)

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

Dollar

at currentexchange rate

at PPP


■ 　 Passenger Car Production (1998)Passenger Car Production (1998)

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000


■ 　 Average Life ExpectancyAverage Life Expectancy

0102030405060708090

Male

Female


■ 　 Crime RatesCrime Rates

Rate of Incidence Arrest Rate(%)Serious Crimes 1990 1996 1990 1996

United States 5,820 5,079 21.6 21.8United Kingdom 8,630 9,360 31.6 26.5Germany 7,108 8,125 47.0 49.0France 6,169 6,110 37.5 30.2Japan 1,324 1,440 42.3 40.6


■ 　 Arrest RatesArrest Rates

Rate of Incidence Arrest Rate(%)Homicides 1990 1996 1990 1996

United States 9.4 7.4 67.2 66.9United Kingdom 2.3 2.6 92.0 91.0Germany 3.9 4.3 94.2 92.1France 4.5 4.1 77.2 74.9Japan 1.0 1.0 96.7 98.5


■ 　 Food Self-Sufficiency Rate (%)Food Self-Sufficiency Rate (%)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


■ 　 Growth Rates of Japan’s Real GDPGrowth Rates of Japan’s Real GDP

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16％


■ 　 High Growth: EnvironmentHigh Growth: Environment

◆Postwar World Free Trade System　・ IMF, GATT, World Bank

◆Technology　・ Heavy, Petrochemical Industry　・ Catch-up

◆Natural Resources　・ Relatively Abundant World Resources


■ 　 High Growth: EngineHigh Growth: Engine

◆Labor Force

・ Demographic Configuration, Education, Social Mobility

◆Capital Formation

・ “ Investment Calls for Investment”, High Domestic Saving

◆Social Overhead Capital

・ Private/Social Capital, FILP


■ 　 High Growth: Efficiency and EquityHigh Growth: Efficiency and Equity

◆Productivity Increase

・ Technology Transfer, Industrial Configuration ◆Man-machine Relationship

・ Technological Progress, Robots ◆Japanese Management

・ Life Time Employment, Main Bank System, Organizational Hierarchy

◆Income Distribution

・ Fruit of Growth, Equitable Wealth Distribution


■ 　 High Growth: Government PolicyHigh Growth: Government Policy

　　◆ From Reconstruction to Catch-up

　・ Teachers Around, Desire to Catch-up

　　◆ Macroeconomic Stabilization Policy

　・ Keynesian Fiscal and Monetary Policy

　　◆ Industrial Policy

　・ Priority Allocation of Scarce Resources

　・ Encourage Growth-Mitigate Decline


■ 　 High Growth: Why?High Growth: Why?

◆Why Fevered?

・ Driving Force, Social Ethos, Escape into Busy-ness

◆A Turnpike Theorem

・ Distant Destination, Turnpike, Self-Assurance, Meaning of Life


■ 　 The Lost DecadeThe Lost Decade

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

%

GDP

Deflator


■ 　 Bubble and Its AftermathBubble and Its Aftermath

◆From Stable Growth to Bubble　・ Asset Price, Self-perpetuating

Expectation ◆Bubble Burst

　・ Asset Price Fall ◆Vicious Cycle

　・ Negative Asset Effect, Shattered Expectation

◆Old Keynesian Prescription　・ Fiscal Stimulus


■ 　 Unemployment Historically HighUnemployment Historically High

Unemployment Rate

0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.0

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

%


■ 　 Government Debt AccumulatesGovernment Debt Accumulates

National Debt as % of GDP

0.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.0

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999


■ 　 Bank Failures UnprecedentedBank Failures Unprecedented

Number of Banks Failed

05

101520253035

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000


■ 　 Towards a New EconomyTowards a New Economy

◆Structural Change　・ Political System, Government Reform,

　 Industrial Restructuring

◆New Sense of Direction　・ Social Concern and Participation, Private Initiative

◆New Economy　・ Information Technology, Quality of Life, Environment, Welfare, Sustainable Growth

OSIPP / Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University Japan’s Postwar Economy...

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