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Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1
Quarterly highlights (Standalone)Particulars (` cr) 4QFY13 4QFY12 % chg (yoy) 3QFY13 % chg (qoq)Net sales 3,204 2,595 23.5 2,047 56.5EBITDA 2,156 1,975 9.1 1,390 55.0
% margin 67.3 76.1 (885)bp 67.9 (65)bp
Adj. PAT 1,871 1,643 13.9 1,292 44.8Source: Company, Angel Research
NMDC reported better-than-expected 4QFY2013 results on the back of
higher-than-expected sales volumes. We maintain Buy on the stock due to itsinexpensive valuations.Robust operational performance:NMDCs net sales increased by 23.5% yoyto`3,204cr (above our estimates of `2,659cr), mainly due to higher
volumes which grew 27.8% yoy to 8.2mn tonne. Iron ore realizations
however declined 3.5% yoy to `3,843/tonne.
EBITDA/tonne slumps on lower realizations: The companys EBITDA increasedby 9.1% yoy to `2,156cr. However, the EBITDA margin contracted 885bp
yoy to 67.3%. The EBITDA/tonne decreased by 14.6% yoy to `2,616 due to a
fall in the average realization. The company also reported an exceptional item
of `406cr relating to penalty and contribution towards the Special Purpose
Vehicle (SPV) created for Karnataka illegal mining cases. Excluding this
exceptional item, the adjusted net profit grew by 13.9% yoy to `1,871cr
(above our estimate of `1,721cr).
Outlook and valuation: Over the past five years, NMDC has traded at anaverage EV/EBITDA of 13.0x compared to its current valuation of 3.3x FY2015E
EV/EBITDA. A strong balance sheet, presence in sellers market (iron ore), low
cost of production, high-grade mines, long mine life and high dividend yield
(6.0% at CMP) make NMDC an attractive bet at the current levels. Valuing thestock at 5.0x FY2015E EV/EBITDA, we derive a fair price of `156 andrecommend Buy on the stock.Key financials (Standalone)Y/E March (` cr) FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015ENet sales 11,261 10,704 10,461 11,892% chg (1.0) (4.9) (2.3) 13.7
Net profit 7,266 6,342 6,441 6,971% chg 11.8 (12.7) 1.6 8.2
FDEPS (`) 18.3 16.0 16.2 17.6OPM (%) 79.3 68.9 71.6 72.6
P/E (x) 6.4 7.3 7.2 6.7
P/BV (x) 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.3
RoE (%) 33.3 24.4 22.1 21.4RoCE (%) 40.1 27.7 25.1 25.9
EV/Sales (x) 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.3
EV/EBITDA (x) 2.9 3.7 3.7 3.2
Source: Company, Angel Research
BUYCMP `117
Target Price `156
Investment Period 12 months
Stock Info
Sector
Net Debt (` cr) (21,025)
Bloomberg Code
Shareholding Pattern (%)
Promoters 80.0
MF / Banks / Indian Fls 11.5
FII / NRIs / OCBs 4.8Indian Public / Others 3.7
Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr
Sensex 3.7 22.8 15.2
NMDC (15.0) (28.8) 22.8
1
19,610
5,939
NMDC.BO
NMDC@IN
46,566
1.0
203/115
605,804
Mining
Avg. Daily Volume
Market Cap (`cr)
Beta
52 Week High / Low
Face Value (`)
BSE Sensex
Nifty
Reuters Code
Bhavesh ChauhanTel: 022- 39357600 Ext: 6821
Vinay RachhTel: 022- 39357600 Ext: 6841
NMDCPerformance Highlights
4QFY2013 Result Update | Mining
June 3, 2013
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NMDC| 4QFY2013 Result Update
June 3, 2013 2
Exhibit 1:4QFY2013 performance (Standalone)Y/E March (` cr) 4QFY13 4QFY12 yoy % 3QFY13 qoq % FY2013 FY2012 yoy %Net Sales 3,204 2,595 23.5 2,047 56.5 10,704 11,261 (4.9)Raw Material (65) (34) - (41) 59.8 184 23 711.3% of net sales (2.0) (1.3) (2.0) 1.7 0.2
Consumption of stores & spares 100 81 24.3 64 57.0 289 257 12.6
% of net sales 3.1 3.1 3.1 2.7 2.3
Staff Cost 161 127 27.6 139 16.0 580 529 9.6
% of net sales 5.0 4.9 6.8 5.4 4.7
Other Expenditure 852 446 91.2 494 72.4 871 406 114.4
% of net sales 26.6 17.2 24.1 8.1 3.6
Total Expenditure 1,048 619 69.3 656 59.7 3,326 2,336 42.4
% of net sales 32.7 23.9 32.1 31.1 20.7
Operating Profit 2,156 1,975 9.1 1,390 55.0 7,378 8,925 (17.3)OPM% 67.3 76.1 67.9 68.9 79.3
Other Operating Income - - - - -
EBIDTA 2,156 1,975 9.1 1,390 55.0 7,378 8,925 (17.3)EBITDA margins (%) 67.3 76.1 67.9 68.9 79.3
Interest 13 1 - 13 12.2
Depreciation 39 32 20.1 34 14.2 139 130 6.4
Other Income 547 547 0.1 556 (1.6) 2,226 2,016 10.4
Exceptional Items (406.0) (51.3) - - -
Profit before Tax 2,245 2,440 (8.0) 1,913 17.4 9,465 10,811 (12.4)% of net sales 70.1 94.0 93.5 88.4 96.0
Tax 780 797 (2.1) 621 25.7 3,123 3,494 (10.6)
% of PBT 34.8 32.7 32.5 33.0 32.3
Adjusted net profit 1,871 1,643 13.9 1,292 44.8 6,342 7,266 (12.7)Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 2:4QFY2013 Actual vs Angel estimates(` cr) Actual Estimates Variation (%)Net sales 3,204 2,659 20.5
EBITDA 2,156 2,039 5.7
EBITDA margin (%) 67.3 76.7 (942)bp
PAT 1,871 1,721 8.7
Source: Company, Angel Research
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NMDC| 4QFY2013 Result Update
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Result highlights
Volumes jump 27.8% yoy
NMDCs net sales increased by 23.5% yoy to `3,204cr (above our estimateof `2,659cr), mainly due to higher volumes, which grew 27.8% yoy to 8.2mn
tonne. Iron ore realizations however declined 3.5% yoy to `3,843/tonne.
Exhibit 3:Sales volumes increase 27.8% yoy
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 4:Realization decreased by 3.5% yoy
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 5:Net sales increased by 23.5% yoy
Source: Company, Angel Research
EBITDA/tonne decreased by 14.6% yoy
The companys EBITDA increased by 9.1% yoy to `2,156cr. However, the
EBITDA margin contracted 885bp yoy to 67.3%. EBITDA/tonne decreased by
14.6% yoy to `2,616 due to fall in average realization. Other expenditure grew by
91.2% yoy to `852cr during the quarter.
8.5
6.97.6
6.4 6.56.8
5.95.3
8.2
(30)
(20)
(10)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
4QFY11 2QFY12 4QFY12 2QFY13 4QFY13
(%)
(mntonnes)
Sales volume % yoy (RHS)
4,434
4,0154,030
4,394
3,982
4,136
4,442
3,820 3,843
(20)
(10)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
3,500
3,600
3,7003,800
3,900
4,000
4,100
4,200
4,300
4,400
4,500
4QFY11 2QFY12 4QFY12 2QFY13 4QFY13
(%)
(`/tonne)
Average realization % yoy (RHS)
3,0622,822
2,595
2,840
2,612
2,048
3,204
(40)
(30)
(20)
(10)
0
10
20
30
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13
(%)
(`cr)
Net sales (LHS) yoy change (RHS)
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NMDC| 4QFY2013 Result Update
June 3, 2013 4
Exhibit 6:EBITDA/tonne decreased by 14.6% yoy
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 7:EBITDA margin stood at 67.3%
Source: Company, Angel Research
Net profit declined by 10.8% yoy
The companys depreciation expenses grew by 20.1% yoy to `39cr and there was
an exceptional item of `406cr relating to penalty and contribution towards the
Special purpose Vehicle (SPV) created for Karnataka illegal mining cases.
Consequently, the adjusted net profit grew by 13.9% yoy to `1,871cr (above our
estimate of `1721cr).
Exhibit 8:Net margin stood at 58.4%
Source: Company, Angel Research
3,230 3,268 3,214
3,532
3,062
3,385 3,307
2,615 2,616
(40)
(30)
(20)
(10)
0
10
20
3040
50
60
70
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4QFY11 2QFY12 4QFY12 2QFY13 4QFY13
(%)
(`/tonne)
EBITDA/tonne % yoy (RHS)
72.7
81.0
79.5 80.1
76.1
81.0
74.1
67.9
67.3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
4QFY11 2QFY12 4QFY12 2QFY13 4QFY13
(%)
(`cr)
EBITDA (LHS) EBITDA margin (RHS)
55.764.7 64.1 65.9 63.3
67.164.3 63.1
58.4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
4QFY11 2QFY12 4QFY12 2QFY13 4QFY13
(`
cr)
Net profit (LHS) Net profit margin (RHS)
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NMDC| 4QFY2013 Result Update
June 3, 2013 5
Investment rationale
Iron ore capacity to expandNMDC aims to ramp up its production capacity to 48mn tonne by FY2015 (currentcapacity 32mn tonne) through increased exploration of its existing mines and
development of new mines (Deposit 11B and Deposit 13 in Bailadila and
Kumaraswany, respectively, in Karnataka). Given its past track record, we forecast
iron ore production capacity to increase to 40mn tonne by FY2015 (compared to
its target of 48mn tonne). Although sales volumes declined 3.9% yoy in FY2013,
we expect them to grow at a CAGR of 8.8% over FY2013-15E.
Exhibit 9:Iron ore capacity expansion details
Source: Company, Angel Research
Low cost producer of iron oreNMDC is one of the lowest cost producers of iron ore on account of its highly
mechanized mines, high-grade iron ore mines and logistical efficiencies. Further,
NMDC (unlike other PSUs such as SAIL and Coal India) does not face issues of
high employee costs as a percentage of net sales. Its staff costs/net sales ratio is
the lowest compared to other PSUs.
Exhibit 10:NMDCs opex & EBITDA per tonne trend
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 11:Employee costs as a percentage of sales
Source: Company, Angel Research
32
48
7
7 2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Current Bai ladi la 11/B Kurumaswamy Dep. 10, 11/A Total
(mntonnes)
1114 16
36
6663
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
FY2010 FY2011 FY2012
(US$/tonne)
Opex/tonne EBITDA/tonne
6.74.3 4.7
13.6
18.0 17.4
37.3 37.740.5
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
FY2010 FY2011 FY2012
(%)
NMDC SAIL Coal India
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NMDC| 4QFY2013 Result Update
June 3, 2013 6
Seeking to diversify into steel making
The Management intends to diversify its operations by moving downstream
through establishing steel plants and pellet plants. Accordingly, the company aims
to build an integrated 3mn tonne steel plant in Jagdalpur, Chhattisgarh. Land
acquisition for the same is nearly complete, which gives comfort as land
acquisition has been a major bottleneck to greenfield projects in recent times.
However, we believe the steel project is not likely to be value accretive to NMDC in
the initial period of operations.
Exhibit 12:Chhattisgarh steel project statusCapacity 3mn tonne per year
Capex `15,525cr
Land Total land required: 1,934 acres. Total land acquired: 1,932 acres.
Balance land is under allotment process.Date ofcompletion
42 months from Zero date i.e., receipt of all statutoryclearance/approvals and placement of orders.Targeted completion period FY2015
Source: Company, Angel Research
Outlook and valuation
Over the past five years, NMDC has traded at an average EV/EBITDA of 13.0x,
compared to its current valuation of 3.3x FY2015E EV/EBITDA. A strong balance
sheet, presence in sellers market (iron ore), low cost of production, high-grade
mines and long mine life make NMDC an attractive bet at the current levels.Valuing the stock at 5.0x FY2015E EV/EBITDA, we derive a fair price of `156 andrecommend Buy on the stock.Exhibit 13:Key assumptions
FY2014E FY2015ESales volume (mn tonne) 28 31
Average realization (US$/tonne) 3,736 3,836
Source: Angel Research
Exhibit 14:EPS Angel forecast vs consensusYear (`) Angel forecast Bloomberg consensus Variation (%)FY2014E 16.2 16.8 (3.3)
FY2015E 17.6 17.9 (1.8)
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
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Exhibit 15:EV/EBITDA band
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 16:P/E band
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 17:P/BV band
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
Apr-09 Dec-09 Aug-10 Apr-11 Dec-11 Aug-12 Apr-13
(`
cr)
5x 8x 11x 17x 14x
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Apr-09 Dec-09 Aug-10 Apr-11 Dec-11 Aug-12 Apr-13
(`)
9x 14x 19x 24x
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Apr-09 Dec-09 Aug-10 Apr-11 Dec-11 Aug-12 Apr-13
(`)
2.0x 4.0x 6.0x 8.0x
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NMDC| 4QFY2013 Result Update
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Exhibit 18: Recommendation summary
Companies CMP Target Reco. Mcap Upside P/E (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%)(`) price (`) (` cr) (%) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E
Sesa Goa 161 - Neutral 13,753 - 5.4 5.4 0.7 0.6 14.0 11.6 14.3 12.5 5.2 5.5NMDC 117 156 Buy 46,566 33 7.2 6.7 1.5 1.3 3.7 3.2 22.1 21.4 25.1 25.9Coal India 326 343 Accum. 202,344 5 11.2 10.8 3.2 2.7 5.5 5.2 37.4 34.6 22.4 20.3
MOIL 199 248 Buy 3,410 24 7.4 6.9 1.1 1.0 2.0 1.4 15.4 14.7 14.5 13.7
Source: Company, Angel Research
Company background
Incorporated in November 1958, government-owned NMDC is Indias largest iron
ore producer with a capacity of 36mn tonne. The company operates high-grade
iron ore mines at Kirandul and Bacheli in Chhattisgarh and Donimalai in
Karnataka. The average mine life of NMDC is 38 years currently.
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NMDC| 4QFY2013 Result Update
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Profit & loss statement (Standalone)
Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015ENet Sales 6,239 11,369 11,261 10,704 10,461 11,892Other operating income - - - - - -Total operating income 6,239 11,369 11,261 10,704 10,461 11,892% chg (17.5) 82.2 (1.0) (4.9) (2.3) 13.7
Total Expenditure 1,817 2,722 2,336 3,326 2,972 3,264
Net Raw Materials 211 123 234 105 129 157
Personnel 420 492 529 580 603 627
Other 1,186 2,107 1,573 2,642 2,240 2,480
EBITDA 4,422 8,646 8,925 7,378 7,489 8,628% chg (24.2) 95.5 3.2 (17.3) 1.5 15.2
(% of Net Sales) 70.9 76.1 79.3 68.9 71.6 72.6
Depreciation & Amort. 73 125 130 139 145 153
EBIT 4,349 8,521 8,794 7,239 7,344 8,475% chg (24.6) 95.9 3.2 (17.7) 1.4 15.4
(% of Net Sales) 69.7 75.0 78.1 67.6 70.2 71.3
Interest & other Charges - - - - - -
Other Income 862 1,206 2,016 2,226 2,270 1,930
Recurring PBT 5,211 9,727 10,811 9,465 9,614 10,405% chg (21.6) 86.7 11.1 (12.4) 1.6 8.2
Extraordinary Inc/(Exp.) - - (513.0) - - -
PBT (reported) 5,211 9,727 10,760 9,465 9,614 10,405Tax 1,760 3,228 3,494 3,123 3,173 3,434
(% of PBT) 33.8 33.2 32.5 33.0 33.0 33.0
PAT (reported) 3,451 6,499 7,266 6,342 6,441 6,971ADJ. PAT 3,451 6,499 7,266 6,342 6,441 6,971% chg (21.1) 88.3 11.8 (12.7) 1.6 8.2
(% of Net Sales) 55.3 57.2 64.5 59.2 61.6 58.6
Basic EPS (`) 8.7 16.4 18.3 16.0 16.2 17.6Fully Diluted EPS ( ) 8.7 16.4 18.3 16.0 16.2 17.6% chg (21.1) 88.3 11.8 (12.7) 1.6 8.2
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NMDC| 4QFY2013 Result Update
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Balance sheet (Standalone)
Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015ESOURCES OF FUNDSEquity Share Capital 396 396 396 396 396 396Reserves& Surplus 13,876 18,818 24,010 27,105 30,299 34,023
Shareholders Funds 14,272 19,215 24,406 27,501 30,696 34,420Total Loans - - - - - -
Deferred Tax Liability 85 103 100 100 100 100
Other Long term Liabilties 22 23 23 23 23
Long Term Provisions 15 13 13 13 13
Total Liabilities 14,357 19,354 24,543 27,638 30,833 34,557APPLICATION OF FUNDSGross Block 1,771 2,273 2,388 3,388 3,888 4,388
Less: Acc. Depreciation 984 (1,174) (1,199) (1,338) (1,483) (1,636)
Net Block 787 1,099 1,189 2,050 2,405 2,752Capital Work-in-Progress 561 568 1,494 4,894 8,394 11,894
Goodwill - - - - - -
Investments 76 136 248 248 248 248Long Term Loans and Adv. - 199 512 512 512 512
Other non- current assets - 11 7 7 7 7
Current Assets 14,264 19,086 23,199 22,074 21,348 21,279Cash 12,855 17,228 20,265 19,163 18,553 18,448
Loans & Advances 683 557 1,048 1,048 1,048 1,048
Other 726 1,300 1,886 1,864 1,747 1,783
Current liabilities 1,348 1,744 2,105 2,147 2,081 2,135Net Current Assets 12,916 17,342 21,094 19,927 19,267 19,144Mis. Exp. not written off 17 - - - - -
Total Assets 14,357 19,354 24,543 27,638 30,833 34,557
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Cash flow statement (Standalone)Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015EProfit before tax 5,207 9,726 10,760 9,465 9,614 10,405
Depreciation 73 122 184 139 145 153Change in Working Capital 926 (525) (889) 64 51 18
Others (832) (1,144) (1,962) - - -
Direct taxes paid (1,770) (3,318) (3,502) (3,123) (3,173) (3,434)
Cash Flow from Operations 3,604 4,862 4,595 6,545 6,638 7,142Inc./ (Dec.) in Fixed Assets (422) (456) (1,211) (4,400) (4,000) (4,000)
Other income 828 (3,961) 472 - - -
Cash Flow from Investing 407 (4,417) (739) (4,400) (4,000) (4,000)Issue of Equity - - - - - -
Inc./(Dec.) in loans - - - - - -
Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) (895) (994) (1,911) (3,247) (3,247) (3,247)
Others - (0) (0.1) - - -
Cash Flow from Financing (895) (994) (1,911) (3,247) (3,247) (3,247)Inc./(Dec.) in Cash 3,115 (550) 1,945 (1,102) (609) (105)
Opening Cash balances 9,740 1,648 1,153 3,098 19,163 18,553Closing Cash balances 12,855 1,153 3,098 19,163 18,553 18,448
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NMDC| 4QFY2013 Result Update
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Key ratios
Y/E March FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015EValuation Ratio (x)P/E (on FDEPS) 13.4 7.1 6.4 7.3 7.2 6.7P/CEPS 13.2 7.0 6.3 7.2 7.0 6.5
P/BV 3.3 2.4 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.3
Dividend yield (%) 1.5 1.8 2.7 6.0 6.0 6.0
EV/Sales 5.4 2.6 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.3
EV/EBITDA 7.6 3.4 2.9 3.7 3.7 3.2
EV / Total Assets 2.3 1.5 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8
Per Share Data (`)EPS (Basic) 8.7 16.4 18.3 16.0 16.2 17.6
EPS (fully diluted) 8.7 16.4 18.3 16.0 16.2 17.6
Cash EPS 8.9 16.7 18.7 16.3 16.6 18.0
DPS 1.7 2.2 3.2 7.0 7.0 7.0
Book Value 36.0 48.5 61.6 69.4 77.4 86.8
Dupont AnalysisEBIT margin 69.7 75.0 78.1 67.6 70.2 71.3
Tax retention ratio (%) 66.2 66.8 67.7 67.0 67.0 67.0
Asset turnover (x) 3.8 6.7 3.7 1.7 1.0 0.9
ROIC (Post-tax) 174.0 333.3 197.7 79.1 48.6 40.7
Cost of Debt (Post Tax)
Returns (%)ROCE (Pre-tax) 33.4 50.6 40.1 27.7 25.1 25.9
Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) 347.9 744.9 444.2 246.6 210.7 222.9
ROE 26.6 38.8 33.3 24.4 22.1 21.4
Turnover ratios (x)Asset Turnover (Gross Block) 3.6 5.6 4.8 3.7 2.9 2.9
Inventory / Sales (days) 60 48 68 65 60 50
Receivables (days) 43 15 20 20 20 20
Payables (days) 91 62 68 68 68 68
WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) 27 3 15 27 26 22
Solvency ratios (x)Net debt to equity (0.9) (0.9) (0.8) (0.7) (0.6) (0.5)
Net debt to EBITDA (2.9) (2.0) (2.3) (2.6) (2.5) (2.2)Interest Coverage (EBIT / Int.) - - - - - -
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NMDC| 4QFY2013 Result Update
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Angel Broking Pvt. Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment bankingor other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or
in the past.
Neither Angel Broking Pvt. Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from
or in connection with the use of this information.
Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to thelatest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Pvt. Limited and its affiliates mayhave investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.
Disclosure of Interest Statement NMDC
1. Analyst ownership of the stock No
2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No
3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No
4. Broking relationship with company covered No
Ratings (Returns): Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)Reduce (-5% to -15%) Sell (< -15%)
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below`
1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors