ONGC 4Q FY 2013

7/28/2019 ONGC 4Q FY 2013

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Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1

Quarterly highlights (Standalone)

Particulars (` cr) 4QFY2013 4QFY2012 % chg (yoy) 3QFY2013 % chg (qoq)

Net sales 21,389 18,819 13.7 20,987 1.9

EBITDA 10,734 11,577 (7.3) 11,342 (5.4)

EBITDA margin 50.2 61.5 (1133)bp 54.0 (386)bp

Adj. PAT 5,239 5,646 (7.2) 5,563 (5.8)

Source: Company, Angel Research

For 4QFY2013, Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC)’s top-line and

profitability were higher than our estimates. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock.

Top-line rises due to higher crude realizations: ONGC’s top-line increased by

13.7% yoy to ` 21,389cr (above our expectation of ` 19,938cr). Its crude oil net

realization increased by 14.7% yoy to US$50.8/bbl whereas gas realizations

increased 7.0% yoy to 8.4/scm. Crude oil’s sales volume however was flat yoy at

5.9mn tonne and the subsidy burden stood at ` 12,312cr.

EBITDA decreases on higher operating costs: The company reported an EBITDA

decline of 7.3% due to higher employee costs and higher other expenses. EBITDA

margin also contracted by 1,133bp yoy to 50.2%.

Higher depreciation drags PAT: ONGC’s depreciation and write-off expenses

increased by 45.2% yoy to 7,126cr due to higher dry wells write-off. The

company reported an exceptional item relating to one-time contribution ofdifference towards employers contribution to superannuation fund amounting to

` 1,850cr which was allocated to different business expenses including employee

costs. Hence, the adjusted PAT declined by 7.2% yoy to ` 5,239cr.

Outlook and valuation: We remain positive on ONGC from a long-term

perspective due to potential reserve accretion from its large exploration and

production (E&P) acreage. Further, we expect the government to progressively raise

diesel prices during CY2013 and CY2014, which is expected to result in lower

subsidy burden for ONGC. Also, a concrete subsidy-sharing formula by the

government could make ONGC’s cash flows more predictable. The stock is currently

trading at an inexpensive PE valuation of 9.2x FY2014E and 8.3x FY2015E. Hence,

we recommend a Buy rating on the stock with a SOTP target price of `372.

Key financials (Consolidated)

Y/E March (` cr) FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015E

Net sales 147,286 162,386 170,063 193,024

% chg 25.2 10.3 4.7 13.5

Net profit 28,143 24,221 29,660 32,733

% chg 25.3 (13.9) 22.5 10.4

OPM (%) 32.9 27.0 36.2 36.9

EPS (`) 32.9 28.3 34.7 38.3

P/E (x) 9.7 11.2 9.2 8.3

P/BV (x) 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4

RoE (%) 24.9 16.8 18.3 17.9

RoCE (%) 20.2 16.1 19.0 19.2

EV/Sales (x) 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.0

EV/EBITDA (x) 5.2 5.9 3.9 3.1


BUYCMP ` 318

Target Price ` 372

Investment Period 12 Months

Stock Info

Sector

Net debt ( ` cr) 749

Bloomberg Code

Shareholding Pattern (%)

Promoters 69.2

MF / Banks / Indian Fls 10.8

FII / NRIs / OCBs 6.3 Indian Public / Others 13.6

Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr

Sensex 3.5 22.2 14.2

ONGC 2.1 25.3 7.0

Oil & Gas

Avg. Daily Volume

Market Cap ( ` cr)

Beta

52 Week High / Low

Face Value ( ` )

BSE Sensex

Nifty

Reuters Code

5

19,546

5,919

ONGC.BO

ONGC@IN

272,364

0.9

354/249

365,481

Bhavesh Chauhan

Tel: 022 - 3935 7800 Ext: 6821

[email protected]

Vinay Rachh

Tel: 022- 39357600 Ext: 6841

[email protected]

ONGC

Performance Highlights

4QFY2013 Result Update | Oil & Gas

June 4, 2013

7/28/2019 ONGC 4Q FY 2013


ONGC | 4QFY2013 Result Update

June 4, 2013 2

Exhibit 1: 4QFY2013 performance (Standalone)

Particulars (` cr) 4QFY2013 4QFY2012 % chg (yoy) 3QFY2013 % chg (qoq) FY2013 FY2012 % chg (yoy)

Net sales 21,389 18,819 13.7 20,987 1.9 162,386 147,286 10.3

Total operating expenditure 10,655 7,242 47.1 9,645 10.5 118,576 98,848 20.0EBITDA 10,734 11,577 (7.3) 11,342 (5.4) 43,810 48,438 (9.6)

EBITDA Margin (%) 50.2 61.5 54.0 27.0 32.9

Other Income 1,245 993 25.4 1,281 (2.8) 5,518 4,824 14.4

Depreciation 7,126 4,906 45.2 4,411 61.5 12,100 13,165 (8.1)

Interest - 22 - 1 (95.9) 485 435 11.5

Exceptional items - (2) - - (3,141)

PBT 4,853 7,640 (36.5) 8,210 (40.9) 36,743 42,803 (14.2)

PBT Margin (%) 22.7 40.6 39.1 22.6 29.1

Total Tax 1,464 1,995 (26.6) 2,648 (44.7) 12,752 14,375 (11.3)

% of PBT 30.2 26.1 32.2 34.7 33.6

PAT 3,389 5,644 (40.0) 5,563 (39.1) 24,221 28,143 (13.9)

Adj. PAT 5,239 5,646 (7.2) 5,563 (5.8) 24,221 31,284 (22.6)

PAT Margin (%) 24.5 30.0 26.5 14.9 21.2


Exhibit 2: 4QFY2013 Actual vs Estimates

(` cr) Actual Estimates Variation (%)

Total operating income 21,389 19,938 7.3

EBITDA 10,734 8,394 27.9

EBITDA Margin (%) 50.2 42.1 808bp

Adj.PAT 5,239 4,172 25.6


Top-line rises due to higher crude realizations: ONGC’s top-line increased by

13.7% yoy to ` 21,389cr (above our expectation of ` 19,938cr). Its crude oil net

realization increased by 14.7% yoy to US$50.8/bbl whereas gas realizations

increased 7.0% yoy to 8.4/scm due to INR depreciation against the USD. Crude oil

sales volume however was flat yoy at 5.9mn tonne while gas sales volumes

declined 5.2% yoy to 5bcm. The company shared a subsidy burden of ` 12,312cr

in 4QFY2013.

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June 4, 2013 3

Exhibit 3: Operating revenue growth trend


EBITDA decreases on higher operating costs: The company reported an EBITDA

decline of 7.3% due to higher employee costs, which included a one-time item of

contribution to superannuation fund and higher other expenses. The EBITDA

margin also contracted by 1,133bp yoy to 50.2%.

Exhibit 4: Operating performance trend


Higher depreciation drags PAT: The company’s depreciation and write-off

expenses increased by 45.2% yoy to ` 7,126cr due to higher dry wells write-off. The

company reported an exceptional item relating to one-time contribution of

difference towards employers contribution to superannuation fund amounting to

` 1,850cr which was allocated to different business expenses including employee

costs. Hence the adjusted PAT declined by 7.2% yoy to ` 5,239cr. Reported PAT

however stood at ` 3,389cr, a decline of 40.0% yoy.

24.3

(2.5)

16.8

24.0

(12.5)

15.8

13.7

(15.0)

(10.0)

(5.0)

-

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

-

3,000

6,000

9,000

12,000

15,000

18,000

21,000

24,000

2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13

( % )

( `

c r )

Operating revenues Operating revenues growth (RHS)

64.0

61.061.5

55.4 52.4

54.0

50.2

45.0

48.0

51.0

54.0

57.0

60.0

63.0

66.0

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000


( % )

( `

c r )

Operating Profit Operating Margins (RHS)

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June 4, 2013 4

Exhibit 5: PAT growth trend


60.4

(49.2)

102.3

48.4

(31.8)

54.6

(7.2)

(60.0)

(40.0)

(20.0)

-

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,0008,000

9,000

10,000


( % )

( `

c r )

Adj. PAT Adj. PAT growth (RHS)

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June 4, 2013 5

Investment arguments

Gas volumes expected to boost valuation: ONGC aims to increase gas production

from North Tapti, B193 and 28 cluster, B22 cluster WO series cluster, B46 cluster,

cluster 7 and B series. As far as oil is concerned, ONGC’s existing oil fields have

matured. Thus, production from these fields is declining. Nevertheless, the

Management expects incremental oil production from marginal fields (including

D1 extension), which will help arrest the decline in crude production.

OVL’s volume story intact: We expect a robust volume growth from ONGC Videsh

(OVL), which aims to increase its production at a CAGR of 7.0% over FY2013-15

with incremental productions from Myanmar, Sakhalin-1 and Venezuela coming

on stream. Moreover, any increase in crude oil or gas price would improve OV L’s

margins, as it does not share under-recoveries.

Diesel price hike could re-rate the stock: The government has recently indicated astaggered diesel price hike during CY2013-14 in order to lower under-recoveries.

We expect oil marketing companies to undertake small price hikes

( ` 0.40-0.50/litre) progressively over the coming two years which is expected to

lower under-recoveries significantly by FY2015. Further diesel price hikes could

re-rate the stock gradually in our view.

Outlook and valuation

We remain positive on ONGC from a long-term perspective due to potential

reserve accretion from its large exploration and production (E&P) acreage. Further,

we expect the government to progressively raise diesel prices during CY2013 andCY2014, which is expected to result in lower subsidy burden for ONGC. Also, a

concrete subsidy-sharing formula by the government could make ONGC’s cash

flows more predictable. The stock is currently trading at an inexpensive valuation

of 9.2x FY2014E and 8.3x FY2015E PE. Hence, we recommend an Accumulate

rating on the stock with a SOTP target price of `372.

Exhibit 6: SOTP valuation

Particulars (` cr) `/share

ONGC Standalone(DCF) 273

OVL(Oil- EV/boe $14x Gas Ev/Boe $5x) 52

Investment Value(80% mkt Value) 17

Total EV 342

Net debt (30)

Equity value (`) 372


Exhibit 7: Key assumptions (Standalone)

Particulars FY2014E FY2015E

Sale of crude oil (MMT) 24.0 24.0

Net realisations (US$/bbl) 52 54


7/28/2019 ONGC 4Q FY 2013



June 4, 2013 6

Exhibit 8: Angel EPS forecast vs consensus (Consolidated)

Angel Forecast Bloomberg Consensus Variation (%)

FY2014E 34.7 34.3 1.1

FY2015E 38.3 38.7 (1.1)


Exhibit 12: Recommendation summary

Company CMP TP Reco. Mcap Upside P/E (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%)

(`) (`) (` cr) (%) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E

ONGC 318 372 Buy 272,364 17 9.2 8.3 1.6 1.4 3.9 3.1 18.3 17.9 19.0 19.2

RIL 781 - Neutral 257,939 - 11.3 10.0 1.1 1.0 6.7 5.3 11.5 11.7 8.5 9.4

GAIL 311 - Neutral 40,134 - 9.1 8.7 1.4 1.3 4.1 3.6 16.4 15.2 17.4 16.2

CAIRN 289 345 Buy 55,111 19 5.4 5.8 0.8 0.8 2.8 2.4 16.5 13.6 16.0 13.3

Source: Angel Research

Exhibit 13: One-year forward P/E


50100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

O c t - 0 6

J a n - 0

7

A p r - 0 7

J u l - 0 7

O c t - 0 7

J a n - 0

8

A p r - 0 8

J u l - 0 8

O c t - 0 8

J a n - 0

9

A p r - 0 9

J u l - 0 9

O c t - 0 9

J a n - 1

0

A p r - 1 0

J u l - 1 0

O c t - 1 0

J a n - 1

1

A p r - 1 1

J u l - 1 1

O c t - 1 1

J a n - 1

2

A p r - 1 2

J u l - 1 2

O c t - 1 2

J a n - 1

3

A p r - 1 3

S h a r e p r i c e ( ` )

4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0

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June 4, 2013 7

Company background

ONGC is the third largest oil and gas exploration and production company in the

world and ranks 23rd among leading global energy majors. Its primary business

includes exploration, development and production of crude oil, natural gas, LPG

and other value-added petroleum products. ONGC has 2P reserves of 1,025mtoe

of hydrocarbon reserves, indicating a reserve life of 17 years. The company has

also set up a subsidiary, OVL, for overseas oil exploration and production. OVL

has 2P reserves of 199mtoe indicating a reserve life of 21 years.

7/28/2019 ONGC 4Q FY 2013



June 4, 2013 8

Profit & Loss Statement (Consolidated)

Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015E

Total operating income 101,755 117,611 147,286 162,386 170,063 193,024

% chg (2.7) 15.6 25.2 10.3 4.7 13.5Total Expenditure 56,805 69,174 98,848 118,576 108,419 121,813

Net Raw Materials 25,339 31,251 46,314 60,609 55,418 50,671

Other Mfg costs 16,321 19,685 33,646 36,780 33,629 30,749

Personnel 1,407 1,716 1,696 2,459 2,248 2,055

Other 13,738 16,523 17,192 18,728 17,124 38,339

EBITDA 44,949 48,436 48,438 43,810 61,644 71,210

% chg 4.0 7.8 0.0 (9.6) 40.7 15.5

(% of Net Sales) 44.2 41.2 32.9 27.0 36.2 36.9

Depreciation& Amortization 18,719 20,628 13,165 12,100 21,452 26,452

EBIT 26,230 27,808 35,273 31,710 40,191 44,759

% chg (5.6) 6.0 26.8 (10.1) 26.7 11.4

(% of Net Sales) 25.8 23.6 23.9 19.5 23.6 23.2

Interest & other Charges 1,102 437 435 485 682 681

Other Income 5,273 6,946 4,824 5,518 5,687 5,801

(% of PBT) 17.3 20.2 12.2 15.0 12.6 11.6

Recurring PBT 30,401 34,316 39,662 36,743 45,196 49,878

% chg (2.2) 12.9 15.6 (7.4) 23.0 10.4

Adj. related to prior period (40) - - - - -

Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.) - - (3,141) - - -

PBT (reported) 30,441 34,316 42,803 36,743 45,196 49,878

Tax 10,714 11,491 14,375 12,752 15,686 17,310

(% of PBT) 35.2 33.5 33.6 34.7 34.7 34.7

PAT (reported) 19,728 22,825 28,428 23,991 29,511 32,568

Add: Share from asso. 7.8 3.0 (1.1) 3.7 10.8 11.5

Less: Minority interest (MI) 332 372 284 (226) (139) (153)

PAT after MI (reported) 19,404 22,456 28,143 24,221 29,660 32,733

ADJ. PAT 19,404 22,456 31,284 24,221 29,660 32,733

% chg (2.3) 15.7 39.3 (22.6) 22.5 10.4

(% of Net Sales) 19.1 19.1 21.2 14.9 17.4 17.0

Basic EPS (`) 22.7 26.2 32.9 28.3 34.7 38.3

Fully Diluted EPS (`) 22.7 26.2 32.9 28.3 34.7 38.3% chg (2.0) 15.7 25.3 (13.9) 22.5 10.4

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June 4, 2013 9

Balance Sheet (Consolidated)

Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015E

SOURCES OF FUNDS

Equity Share Capital 2,139 4,278 4,278 4,278 4,278 4,278Preference Capital - - - - - -

Reserves& Surplus 99,268 111,049 132,161 147,441 167,691 189,301

Shareholders’ Funds 101,407 115,327 136,439 151,719 171,968 193,579

Minority Interest 1,643 1,989 2,208 1,979 1,830 1,665

Total Loans 6,267 6,061 15,223 10,862 10,862 10,862

Deferred Tax Liability 10,291 11,176 12,204 12,204 12,204 12,204

Other Long Term Liabilities - 973 1,080 1,080 1,080 1,080

Long Term Provisions - 23,185 24,149 24,149 24,149 24,149

Total Liabilities 137,067 158,713 191,303 201,993 222,092 243,538

APPLICATION OF FUNDS

Gross Block 193,300 166,132 180,674 205,674 217,674 230,674

Less: Acc. Depreciation 117,757 82,077 89,129 101,230 122,682 149,134

Net Block 75,543 84,055 91,545 104,444 94,992 81,540

Capital Work-in-Progress 25,616 34,760 49,698 39,283 49,283 59,283

Goodwill 9,539 8,993 7,798 7,798 7,798 7,798

Investments 5,159 3,100 2,921 2,921 2,921 2,921

Defered tax assets - 24 19 19 19 19

Long term loans and adv. - 8,688 8,103 8,103 8,103 8,103

Site Restoration find deposit - 8,126 9,475 9,475 9,475 9,475

Other non-current assets - 1,130 2,920 2,920 2,920 2,920

Current Assets 50,566 44,193 59,190 68,606 89,405 115,586

Cash 22,384 20,816 27,890 36,778 57,039 82,671

Loans & Advances 12,057 4,012 4,931 4,931 4,931 4,931

Other 16,125 19,365 26,370 26,897 27,435 27,984

Current liabilities 30,198 34,356 40,347 41,558 42,804 44,088

Net Current Assets 20,369 9,837 18,843 27,048 46,601 71,498

Mis. Exp. not written off 841 - - - - -

Total Assets 137,067 158,713 191,303 201,993 222,092 243,538

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June 4, 2013 10

Cash Flow Statement (Consolidated)

Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015E

Profit before tax 30,441 34,313 42,804 36,743 45,196 49,878

Depreciation 8,863 11,353 12,919 12,100 21,452 26,452(Incr)/ Decr in Misc Exp (264) - - - - -

Change in Working Capital (473) (14,168) (7,050) 683 709 735

Less: Other income - (2,593) (7,072) (5,518) (5,687) (5,801)

Others (2,300) 30,696 17,034 - - -

Direct taxes paid (7,748) (10,517) (11,881) (12,752) (15,686) (17,310)

Cash Flow from Operations 28,783 49,085 46,754 31,256 45,985 53,954

(Inc.)/ Dec. in Fixed Assets (21,253) (19,704) (39,176) (14,585) (22,000) (23,000)

(Inc.)/ Dec. in Investments (2,249) (4,347) 179 - - -

(Inc.)/ Dec. in loans and adv. 532 (798) (15) - - -

Other income - - - 5,518 5,687 5,801

Others 1,868 (7,360) 10 - - -

Cash Flow from Investing (21,102) (32,209) (39,002) (9,066) (16,313) (17,199)

Issue of Equity 287 - - - - -

Inc./(Dec.) in loans (304) 40 3,191 (4,361) - -

Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) (8,078) (11,789) (8,521) (8,941) (9,411) (11,122)

Others 109 80 5,432 - - -

Cash Flow from Financing (8,273) (11,670) 102 (13,302) (9,411) (11,122)

Inc./(Dec.) in Cash (592) 5,206 7,854 8,906 20,261 25,633

Opening Cash balances 22,588 14,722 20,017 27,872 36,778 57,039

Closing Cash balances 21,997 20,017 27,872 36,778 57,039 82,671

7/28/2019 ONGC 4Q FY 2013



June 4, 2013 11

Key Ratios

Y/E March FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015E

Valuation Ratio (x)

P/E (on FDEPS) 14.0 12.1 9.7 11.2 9.2 8.3P/CEPS 7.1 6.3 6.6 7.5 5.3 4.6

P/BV 2.7 2.4 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4

Dividend yield (%) 2.6 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.5 4.1

EV/Sales 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.0

EV/EBITDA 5.6 5.2 5.2 5.9 3.9 3.1

EV/Total Assets 1.8 1.6 1.3 1.3 1.1 0.9

Per Share Data (`)EPS (Basic) 22.7 26.2 32.9 28.3 34.7 38.3

EPS (fully diluted) 22.7 26.2 32.9 28.3 34.7 38.3

Cash EPS 44.6 50.4 48.3 42.5 59.7 69.2

DPS 8.3 8.5 9.0 9.5 11.0 13.0

Book Value 119 135 159 177 201 226

Dupont Analysis (%)

EBIT margin 25.8 23.6 23.9 19.5 23.6 23.2

Tax retention ratio 64.8 66.5 66.4 65.3 65.3 65.3

Asset turnover (x) 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.2

ROIC (Post-tax) 15.5 14.6 15.6 12.6 15.9 17.9

Operating ROE 15.5 14.6 15.6 12.6 15.9 17.9

Returns (%)

ROCE (Pre-tax) 19.9 18.8 20.2 16.1 19.0 19.2

Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) 31.2 28.9 32.5 26.5 33.3 41.2

ROE 20.0 20.7 24.9 16.8 18.3 17.9

Turnover ratios (x)

Asset Turnover (Gross Block) 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9

Inventory / Sales (days) 27 28 29 29 29 29

Receivables (days) 26 27 27 28 28 28

Payables (days) 137 134 131 132 132 132

WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) (4) (20) (25) (21) (22) (20)

Solvency ratios (x)

Net debt to equity (0.2) (0.2) (0.1) (0.2) (0.3) (0.4)

Net debt to EBITDA (0.5) (0.4) (0.3) (0.7) (0.8) (1.0)Interest Coverage (EBIT/Int.) 23.8 63.6 81.1 65.4 58.9 65.7

7/28/2019 ONGC 4Q FY 2013



June 4 2013 12

Research Team Tel: 022 – 3935 7800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com

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Disclosure of Interest Statement ONGC

1. Analyst ownership of the stock No

2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No

3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No

4. Broking relationship with company covered No

Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.

Ratings (Returns) : Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)Reduce (-5% to -15%) Sell (< -15%)

ONGC 4Q FY 2013

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