Hindalco 4Q FY 2013

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Hindalco | 4QFY2013 Result Update

June 3, 2013 2

Exhibit 1:4QFY2013 performance (Standalone)

(` cr) 4QFY13 4QFY12 yoy % 3QFY13 qoq % FY2013 FY2012 yoy %Net sales 6,916 7,563 (8.6) 6,790 1.9 25,784 26,353 (2.2)Raw material 4,714 5,316 (11.3) 4,657 1.2 17,265 17,642 (2.1)% of net sales 68.2 70.3 68.6 67.0 66.9

Power and fuel 754 744 1.4 755 (0.1) 3,073 2,871 7.0

% of net sales 10.9 9.8 11.1 11.9 10.9

Staff cost 289 268 8.1 308 (6.1) 1,201 1,113 7.9

% of net sales 4.2 3.5 4.5 4.7 4.2

Other expenses 592 454 30.4 570 4.0 2,315 1,866 24.0

% of net sales 8.6 6.0 8.4 9.0 7.1

Total expenditure 6,351 6,782 (6.4) 6,290 1.0 23,853 23,492 1.5% of net sales 91.8 89.7 92.6 92.5 89.1

Operating Income 78 84 (6.7) 82 (4.5) 273 244 11.9

EBIDTA 643 865 (25.6) 582 10.5 2,204 3,105 (29.0)% of net sales 9.3 11.4 8.6 8.5 11.8

Interest 158 80 96.9 169 (6.7) 436 294 48.5

Depreciation 173 166 4.1 188 (8.4) 704 690 2.1

Other income 231 161 44.0 174 32.9 839 616 36.3

Exceptional Items 0 - 144 144 143

Profit before tax 544 779 (30.2) 543 0.3 2,047 2,737 (25.2)% of net sales 7.9 10.3 8.0 7.9 10.4

Provision for tax 62 139 (55.5) 109 (43.2) 347 500 (30.5)

% of PBT 11.4 17.9 20.1 17.0 18.3

Profit after tax 482 640 (24.7) 433 11.2 1,699 2,237 (24.0)Adjusted PAT 482 640 (24.7) 289 66.5 1,699 2,237 (24.0)

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 2:Standalone 4QFY2013 Actual vs Angel estimates

(` cr) Actual Estimate Variation (%)Net sales 6,916 6,959 (0.6)

EBITDA 643 814 (21.0)

EBITDA margin (%) 9.3 11.7 (240)bp

Adj. net income 482 528 (8.7)


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June 3, 2013 3

Hindalco (Standalone) Key result highlights

Hindalcos net sales declined by 8.6% yoy to `6,916cr (in-line with our estimate of

`6,959cr) mainly on account of lower volumes as well as realizations.

In the aluminium segment, both alumina and aluminium production fell by 18.6%

and 1.4% yoy each to 281kt and 142kt respectively. The aluminium segment s net

sales declined by 4.1% yoy to `2,396cr due to lower LME aluminium prices and

lower production.

In the copper segment, copper cathode production decreased by 10.9% yoy to

85kt. However, the copper segments net sales decreased by 10.6% yoy to

`4,607cr.

Exhibit 3:Aluminium Quarterly production trend

(tonnes) 2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13Alumina 332,383 343,086 345,000 335,000 328,000 326,000 281,000

Aluminium metal 143,315 146,374 144,000 132,000 128,000 139,000 142,000


On the operating front, aluminium segments EBIT decreased by 41.4% yoy to

`284cr due to decrease in realizations. Copper segments EBIT also declined by

11.8% yoy to `259cr.

Exhibit 4:Segmental performance

(` cr) 2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13Aluminium 2,213 2,236 2,499 2,063 2,105 2,215 2,396

Copper 4,062 4,418 5,154 3,972 4,066 4,661 4,607

Gross revenue 6,275 6,654 7,653 6,035 6,171 6,876 7,003

Less: Inter-seg. Rev. (3) (7) (6) (7) (7) (5) (9)

Net sales 6,272 6,647 7,647 6,028 6,164 6,872 6,994Aluminium 429 310 484 270 170 206 284

Copper 148 216 293 76 209 225 259

EBIT 576 526 777 346 378 432 542EBIT margin (%)

Aluminium 19.4 13.9 19.4 13.1 8.1 9.3 11.8

Copper 3.6 4.9 5.7 1.9 5.1 4.8 5.6


Overall, Hindalcos EBITDA declined by 25.6% yoy to `643cr and EBITDA margin

slipped by 213bp yoy to 9.3% during 4QFY2013. Interest expenses increased

substantially by 96.9% yoy to `158cr. Other income was higher by 44.0% yoy to

`231cr. The tax rate for the company declined to 11.4% in 4QFY2013 compared

to 17.9% in 4QFY2012. The net profit declined by 24.7% yoy to `482cr (below our

estimate of `528cr).

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June 3, 2013 4

Exhibit 5:4QFY2013 performance (Novelis)

(US $mn) 4QFY13 4QFY12 % yoy 3QFY13 % qoq FY2013 FY2012 % yoyNet revenue 2,500 2,608 (4.1) 2,321 7.7 9,812 11,063 (11.3)Cost of goods sold 2,162 2,262 (4.4) 2,036 6.2 8,477 9,743 (13.0)(% of Net Sales) 86.5 86.7 87.7

Gross profit 338 346 (2.3) 285 18.6 1,335 1,320 1.1(% of Net Sales) 13.5 13.3 12.3

Selling, General 93 102 (8.8) 101 (7.9) 398 383 3.9

(% of Net Sales) 3.7 3.9 4.4

Research 10 10 0.0 11 (9.1) 46 44 4.5

(% of Net Sales) 0.4 0.4 0.5

EBITDA 235 234 0.4 173 35.8 891 893 (0.2)EBITDA margin (%) 9.4 9.0 7.5

Restructuring charges 19 29 (34.5) 5 280.0 45 60 (25.0)

Depreciation 74 80 (7.5) 76 (2.6) 292 329 (11.2)

EBIT 142 125 13.6 92 54.3 554 504 9.9(% of Net Sales) 5.7 4.8 4.0

Other Income/(Expense) 14 (48) - 8 75.0 34 41 (17.1)

Net Interest expense 75 77 (2.6) 76 (1.3) 298 305 (2.3)

Unrealized Gain (1) 0 0 0 0

Exceptional items 0 (111) 0 (4) (111)

Profit before tax 73 (111) - 24 204.2 286 129 121.7(% of Net Sales) 2.9 (4.3) 1.0

Taxes 14 (4) (450.0) 11 - 83 39 112.8

(% of PBT) 19.2 3.6 45.8

PAT 59 (107) - 13 353.8 206 174 18.4Source: Company, Angel Research

Novelis- Key result highlights:For 4QFY2013 Novelis posted a net sales decline of 4.1% yoy to US$2,500mn

due to divestment of foil division coupled with lower aluminium prices. Shipmentswere flat at 698kt in 4QFY2013. The EBITDA however was flat yoy at $235mn.

Further, Novelis net profit stood at US$59mn as compared to a net loss of

US$107mn in 4QFY2012. The other income for Novelis stood at US$14mn and

this led to it posting a net profit of US$59mn as compared to a net loss of

US$107mn in 4QFY2012.

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June 3, 2013 5

Exhibit 6:Novelis EBITDA margin stood at 9.4%


Exhibit 7:NovelisAdjusted Net Profit stood at $59mn


9.6

7.9

5.4

9.0 9.210.2

7.5

9.4

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1QFY12

2QFY12

3QFY12

4QFY12

1QFY13

2QFY13

3QFY13

4QFY13

(%)

(US$mn)

Adj. EBITDA (LHS) Adj. EBITDA margin (RHS)

62

120

(12) (107)

91

49

3

59

(6)

(4)

(2)

0

2

4

6

(150)

(100)

(50)

0

50

100

150

1QFY

12

2QFY

12

3QFY

12

4QFY

12

1QFY

13

2QFY

13

3QFY

13

4QFY

13

(%)

(US$mn)

Net profit (LHS) Net profit margin (RHS)

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June 3, 2013 6

Investment rationale

Aluminium capacity to increase three-fold in the next four yearsHindalco aims to increase its aluminium capacity by almost three-fold in the nextfour years to 1.5mn tonne. Consequently, we expect production and sales volume

to record a significant growth over FY201215. Most of these new capacities will

be backed by captive bauxite and coal mines; however, there is lack of clarity on

production from the Mahan coal block on account of procedural delays currently.

Exhibit 8:Smelting capacity to scale up gradually


Exhibit 9:Refining capacity to grow 3.0x


390

213

359

359

359 1,680

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

Renukhoot H irakood Mahan Aditya J harkhand T otal

(ktpa)

1,500

1,500

1500

4,500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,5003,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

Existing Utkal Aditya Total

(ktpa)

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June 3, 2013 7

Hindalco no longer a 100% proxy for aluminium pricesHindalcos stock had a strong correlation with INR denominated LME aluminium

prices over the past 22 years. However, over the past one year, this correlation has

dropped significantly, mainly on account of project delays. Further, with massive

aluminium capacity expansion ahead, we believe the stocks performance will be

determined by timely commencement of these projects, timely development of

captive mines and the movement in spot aluminium prices. Hence, Hindalco will

no longer be a 100% proxy on aluminium prices over the coming two to three

years in our view.

Outlook and valuationAlthough Hindalco is expanding its capacities three-fold over the coming four-five

years, low aluminium prices, sticky costs and delay in commencement of mining

from captive blocks are expected to mute its profitability growth. In the near-term,

there is lack of clarity over production from the Mahan coal block for its Mahan

smelter. Without captive coal block, the Mahan smelter (expected to commission

commercial production in 1QFY2014) is expected to face cost pressures, resulting in

lower return ratios over the next two years. We maintain our Neutralrecommendation on the stock.Exhibit 10:SOTP valuation of Hindalco

(FY2015) Multiple EV (Rs cr)Hindalco (Standalone) 2,611 4.5 11,748

CWIP 11,098 0.7 7,769

Novelis 5,987 4.5 26,940

Total EV 46,457Less: Net debt (FY14E) 29,769

Value of investments @25% discount 3,464

Value per share 105Source: Angel Research, Note: * stands for Book value

Exhibit 11:EPS - Angel forecast vs consensus

Year (`) Angel forecast Bloomberg consensus Variation (%)FY14E 13.4 14.0 (4.4)FY15E 15.0 15.2 (1.4)

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

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June 3, 2013 8

Exhibit 12:EV/EBITDA band


Exhibit 13:P/E band


Exhibit 14:P/BV band


0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

Apr-08 Feb-09 Dec-09 Oct-10 Aug-11 Jun-12 Apr-13

(`

cr)

2x 5x 8x 11x 14x

0

100

200300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000


(`)

5x 15x 25x 35x

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350


(`)

0.2x 0.7x 1.2x 1.7x

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June 3, 2013 9

Exhibit 15:Recommendation summary

Companies CMP Target price Reco. Mcap Upside P/E (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%)(`) (`) (` cr) (%) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E

Hindalco 102 - Neutral 19,433 - 7.6 6.8 0.5 0.5 6.4 5.7 7.3 7.6 5.4 5.6Nalco 34 - Neutral 8,633 - 13.3 13.0 0.7 0.7 4.4 4.4 5.4 5.5 3.4 3.5

Sterlite 93 100 Accum. 31,153 7 5.1 4.6 0.6 0.5 2.3 1.9 11.3 11.4 8.4 8.5

Hind. Zinc 115 145 Buy 48,468 26 7.2 6.5 1.3 1.1 3.2 2.2 19.4 18.4 16.2 15.6


Company descriptionIncorporated in 1958, Hindalco is one of the world's largest aluminium rolling

companies and one of the biggest producers of primary aluminium in Asia. It is

also into copper smelting and has one of the worlds largest custom copper

smelter at one location with a capacity of 0.5mn tonne (non-integrated). Itsaluminium operations in India have a capacity of 0.5mn tonne with captive bauxite

mines (reserves - 443mn tonne). During February 2007, Hindalco acquired

Novelis for US$6bn, making the combined entity the world's largest rolled-

aluminium producer. Novelis has a market share of ~17% in the global flat-rolled

aluminium product market.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novelishttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novelis

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June 3, 2013 10

Profit & Loss Statement (Consolidated)

Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015ENet Sales 60,722 72,202 80,821 79,042 89,352 93,672Other operating income 160 - - 273 278 284Total operating income 60,882 72,202 80,821 79,314 89,630 93,956% chg (7.5) 18.6 11.9 (1.9) 13.0 4.8

Total Expenditure 50,976 64,274 72,632 72,027 81,513 85,075

EBITDA 9,746 7,929 8,189 7,015 7,838 8,597% chg 227.3 (18.6) 3.3 (14.3) 11.7 9.7

(% of Net Sales) 16.1 11.0 10.1 8.9 8.8 9.2

Depreciation & Amortization 2,784 2,759 2,870 2,281 2,746 3,039

EBIT 6,962 5,169 5,320 4,734 5,092 5,558% chg - (25.8) 2.9 (11.0) 7.6 9.1

(% of Net Sales) 11.5 7.2 6.6 6.0 5.7 6.0

Interest & other Charges 1,104 1,839 1,758 2,045 2,381 2,520

Other Income 323 513 783 1,023 1,054 1,135

(% of PBT) 5.2 13.4 18.0 27.6 28.0 27.2

Share in profit of Associates - - - - - -

Recurring PBT 6,181 3,843 4,345 3,712 3,766 4,174% chg (1,121.7) (37.8) 13.1 (14.6) 1.5 10.8

Extraordinary Inc/(Expense) - - - 122 - -

PBT (reported) 6,181 3,843 4,345 3,834 3,766 4,174Tax 1,829 964 786 796 1,079 1,175

(% of PBT) 29.6 25.1 18.1 20.8 28.7 28.1

PAT (reported) 4,352 2,879 3,559 3,038 2,687 2,999Add: Share of earnings of asso. (3) (57) 50 - - -

Less: Minority interest (MI) (424) (366) (211) (5) (123) (129)

Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.) - - - - - -

PAT after MI (reported) 3,925 2,456 3,397 3,033 2,564 2,870ADJ. PAT 3,910 2,456 3,397 3,033 2,564 2,870% chg 826.2 (37.2) 38.3 (10.7) (15.5) 11.9

(% of Net Sales) 6.4 3.4 4.2 3.8 2.9 3.1

Basic EPS (`) 22.1 12.8 17.7 15.8 13.4 15.0Fully Diluted EPS (`) 20.4 12.8 17.7 15.8 13.4 15.0% chg 723.0 (37.2) 38.3 (10.7) (15.5) 11.9

Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence not comparable with

previous year numbers

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June 3, 2013 11

Balance Sheet (Consolidated)

Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015ESOURCES OF FUNDSEquity Share Capital 191 191 191 191 191 191Reserves & Surplus 21,353 28,832 31,179 33,821 36,116 38,717

Shareholders Funds 21,545 29,023 31,370 34,012 36,307 38,908Share Warrants - - 541.3 541.3 541.3 541.3

Minority Interest 1,737 2,217 1,709 1,714 1,837 1,966

Total Loans 23,999 29,366 40,859 44,359 47,859 51,359

Deferred Tax Liability 3,938 3,760 3,605 3,605 3,605 3,605

Other Long term liabilities - 603 1,460 1,460 1,460 1,460

Long Term provisions - 4,241 5,289 5,289 5,289 5,289

Total Liabilities 51,219 69,210 84,833 90,980 96,898 103,128APPLICATION OF FUNDSGross Block 41,189 37,031 39,888 48,388 57,888 67,388

Less: Acc. Depreciation 16,622 13,567 15,654 17,935 20,681 23,721

Net Block 24,567 23,464 24,234 30,453 37,207 43,667Capital Work-in-Progress 5,801 9,252 22,798 22,098 16,598 11,098

Goodwill 4,433 8,941 11,066 11,066 11,066 11,066

Investments 11,246 10,855 10,551 10,551 10,551 10,551

Long Term loans and adv. - 4,597 3,754 3,754 3,754 3,754

Other Non-current assets - 865 841 841 841 841

Current Assets 23,188 26,896 28,158 27,990 34,057 39,854Cash 2,195 2,540 3,296 3,722 7,023 11,580

Loans & Advances 3,117 1,722 2,158 2,103 2,379 2,494

Other 17,876 22,634 22,703 22,164 24,656 25,780

Current liabilities 18,017 15,660 16,570 15,774 17,177 17,704Net Current Assets 5,172 11,236 11,588 12,216 16,880 22,150Mis. Exp. not written off - - - - - -

Total Assets 51,219 69,210 84,833 90,980 96,898 103,128Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence not comparable with


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June 3, 2013 12

Cash flow statement (Consolidated)

Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015EProfit before tax 6,181 3,843 4,345 3,712 3,766 4,174

Depreciation 2,784 2,759 2,870 2,281 2,746 3,039Change in working capital (598) (708) (932) (202) (1,363) (713)

Others (2,799) 1,645 2,417 - - -

Direct taxes paid 635 1,313 1,090 796 1,079 1,175

Cash flow from operations 4,932 6,226 7,609 4,995 4,069 5,325(Inc.)/ Dec. in fixed assets (4,171) (7,760) (14,253) (7,800) (4,000) (4,000)

(Inc.)/ Dec. in investments (1,614) 506 508 - - -

(Inc.)/ Dec. in loans & adv. - - - - - -

Others (348) (185) (524) - - -

Cash flow from investing (5,437) (7,909) (12,512) (7,800) (4,000) (4,000)Issue of equity 2,754 10 3.5 - - -

Inc./(Dec.) in loans (321) 3,738 9,091 3,500 3,500 3,500

Dividend paid 327 384 411 269 269 269

Others 1,677 2,539 2,446 - - -

Cash flow from financing 428 825 6,237 3,231 3,231 3,231Inc./(Dec.) in cash (76) (18) 626 426 3,300 4,557

Opening cash bal. 2,263 2,164 2,166 3,296 3,722 7,023Closing cash bal. 2,187 2,166 2,729 3,722 7,023 11,580

Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence not comparable with


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June 3, 2013 13

Key ratios

Y/E March FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015EValuation ratio (x)P/E (on FDEPS) 5.0 8.0 5.7 6.4 7.6 6.8P/CEPS 2.9 3.7 3.1 3.7 3.7 3.3

P/BV 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5

Dividend yield (%) 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3

EV/Sales 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5

EV/EBITDA 3.1 4.5 5.7 7.1 6.4 5.7

EV/Total assets 1.2 1.5 1.9 1.6 1.4 1.1

Per share data (`)EPS (Basic) 22.1 12.8 17.7 15.8 13.4 15.0

EPS (fully diluted) 20.4 12.8 17.7 15.8 13.4 15.0

Cash EPS 35.0 27.2 32.7 27.8 27.7 30.9

DPS 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4

Book value 112.6 151.6 163.8 177.6 189.6 203.2

DuPont analysisEBIT margin 11.5 7.2 6.6 6.0 5.7 6.0

Tax retention ratio (%) 70.4 74.9 81.9 79.2 71.3 71.9

Asset turnover (x) 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.2

RoIC (Post-tax) 13.4 8.3 6.9 5.1 4.7 5.0

Cost of debt (post tax) 3.0 5.2 4.1 3.8 3.7 3.6

Leverage (x) 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8

Operating RoE 18.6 10.0 9.3 6.3 5.5 6.1

Returns (%)RoCE (Pre-tax) 14.0 8.6 6.9 5.4 5.4 5.6

Angel RoIC (pre-tax) 24.9 15.9 14.2 11.7 10.7 10.1

RoE 20.9 9.7 11.2 9.3 7.3 7.6

Turnover ratios (x)Asset turnover (gross block) 1.5 1.8 2.1 1.8 1.7 1.5

Inventory (days) 60 63 61 61 60 60

Receivables (days) 40 36 35 35 35 35

Payables (days) 75 62 54 54 54 54

WC cycle (days) 11 30 38 43 43 45

Solvency ratios (x)Net debt to equity 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8

Net debt to EBITDA 1.1 2.0 3.4 4.4 3.9 3.5

Interest coverage 6.3 2.8 3.0 2.3 2.1 2.2

Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence some ratios may not be

comparable with previous year ratios

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Research Team Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angeltrade.com

DISCLAIMERThis document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment

decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make

such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies

referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and

risks of such an investment.

Angel Broking Pvt. Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make

investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this

document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within.

Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and

trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's

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Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to thelatest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Pvt. Limited and its affiliates mayhave investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.

Disclosure of Interest Statement Hindalco

1. Analyst ownership of the stock No

2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No

3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No

4. Broking relationship with company covered No

Note: We have not considered any Exposure below `1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.

Ratings (Returns) : Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)Reduce (-5% to -15%) Sell (< -15%)

Hindalco 4Q FY 2013

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Transcript of Hindalco 4Q FY 2013