MM5, RAMS, & CAMx Simulations of Summer-time Middle-East O3
(Funding: USAID-MERC Program)
Shoukri Kasakseh†o, Robert Bornsteino, Erez Weinroth#
ºSan Jose State University, San Jose, CA, USA†Applied Research Institute-Jerusalem, Bethlehem, West Bank, Palestine
#Hebrew University, Jerusalem, Israel
Presented at the
86th AMS Annual Meeting
Jan-Feb 2006
Atlanta, Georgia
Outline
• Background
• Synoptic-scale circulation patterns
• Obs of 03 mesoscale transport-patterns
• MM5 and RAMS met simulations
• CAMx 03 simulations
• Conclusions
• Future work
Middle East Synoptic Typesref: Dyan and Levy (2002), JGR
• Account for 74% of O3 episodes over region High pressure over eastern Med Sea (Spring): 25% Red sea trough over Israel (Fall): 29% Shallow Persian trough (Summer): 20% Five others + undefined: 26%
• Shallow Persian (thermal) troughs: produce high O3, as they are caped by N. African sub-tropical H, which produces: subsidence warming, stabilization, & shallow mixed layers sunshine and rapid photochemistry
• Current effort investigates a Persian trough occurrence that coincided with HUJI aircraft O3 observations
• Eastern-Med dominated by Low-p system inland lobe of Azores H thus split into W & NE segments • Protrusion from Western High penetrates inland to
Western Saudi Arabia
Obs IMS 700 hPa, July 29, 0000 UTC
*
700 hPa ECMWF: same day
L
L
H
H
ECMWF IC/BC captures position & strength of: L; split (W & NE) Highs; & protrusion from W high good upper IC/BC for RAMS/MM5
*
• Eastern edge of Azores High (1023 hPa): over Europe (NW of study region), with eastward (“projection”) ridge from its S-lobe; over center of study region• Sfc Persian Trough (“projection”) line (996 hPa): N of study area• E-W oriented cold-front to N: between H & Persian L
IMS SFC Obs, July 29, 0000 UTC
H
L
*H
Trough line
Ridge line
• ECMWF SFC Pressure (left): Correctly captures position & strength of H, Persian Trough Low, W-E cold front (grey area), & both “projections” (hard to see)
• ECMWF D-1 concurrent SFC V (right): dominated by “projections,” with counterclockwise flow N of area (over Med Sea) is influenced by eastern-L and clockwise flow S of area (Israel & Sinai) is influenced by South-lobe of western-H
• good SFC IC/BC for RAMS/MM5
H
L
H
L
H
3 4 .4 3 5 .0 3 5 .6
L O N G IT U D E (D eg E )
2 9 .6
3 0 .1
3 0 .6
3 1 .1
3 1 .6
3 2 .1
3 2 .6
3 3 .1
LA
TIT
UD
E (D
eg N
)
J eru sa lem
T el A v iv
H a ifa
W est B a n k
G a za S tr ip
3 4 .5 3 4 .8 3 5 .1 3 5 .4
L O N G IT U D E (D eg E )
O 3 s ta tio n lo ca tio n s
3 1 .1
3 1 .4
3 1 .7
3 2 .0
3 2 .3
3 2 .6
3 2 .9
LA
TIT
UD
E (
Deg
N)
12 3
4
56
7
8
9
1 0
11 1 21 31 4
1 5
1 6
5 0 m2 5 0 m7 5 0 m1 0 0 0 m
Available O3 sites (Left is sub-domain of MM5 Domain 2); ridge-lines shown
.
3 4 .5 3 4 .8 3 5 .1 3 5 .4
L O N G IT U D E (D eg E )
O 3 s ta tio n lo ca tio n s
3 1 .1
3 1 .4
3 1 .7
3 2 .0
3 2 .3
3 2 .6
3 2 .9
LA
TIT
UD
E (
Deg
N)
12 3
4
56
7
8
9
1 0
11 1 21 31 4
1 5
1 6
5 0 m2 5 0 m7 5 0 m1 0 0 0 m
O3 Station # Station Name
1 Kiryat Ata
2 Newe Shaanan (CU)
3 Nesher
4 Maapil (I)
5 Cent. Station
6Antokolski (CU)
7 Fire Dept.
8 Yavne Group
9 Oil Site
10 Modiin (I)
11 Ashdod
12 Gedera
13 Ashdod YA (CNU)
14 Ashdod Y
15 Ashkelon
16 Kiryat Gat
Sites: I = Inland, CU = Coastal Urban
CNU = Coastal Non-Urban
3 m /s
5 0 m2 5 0 m7 5 0 m1 0 0 0 m
Med
iterr
anea
n S e
a
3 4 .5 3 4 .8 3 5 .1 3 5 .4
L O N G IT U D E (D eg E )
1 0 m o b s sp eed (m /s) & O 3 a t 0 3 0 0 L S T o r 0 0 0 0 U T C o n 1 A u g
3 1 .5
3 1 .8
3 2 .1
3 2 .4
3 2 .7
3 3L
AT
ITU
DE
(D
eg N
)
H Flow Dir: weak down-slope off coastal mountains: for Coastal plain: offshore (to W) from W-facing slopes Haifa Pen. (square): offshore (to E ) from E- facing slopes Inland sites: directed inland (to E) from E-facing slopes
Low-O3 generally <40 ppb)Haifa still at 51 ppb
Night : 3 AM LST (00 UTC)
L
3 4 .5 3 4 .8 3 5 .1 3 5 .4
L O N G IT U D E (D eg E )
1 0 m o b s sp eed (m /s) a t 1 2 0 0 L S T o r 0 9 0 0 U T C o n 1 A u g
3 1 .5
3 1 .8
3 2 .1
3 2 .4
3 2 .7
3 3L
AT
ITU
DE
(D
eg N
)
3 m /s
5 0 m2 5 0 m7 5 0 m1 0 0 0 m
Med
iterr
anea
n S e
a
H
Winds: Reversed Stronger: up 6 m s-1
Coastal plain: Onshore/upwind, from SW Inland sites: Channeling (from W) in corridor (box): Tel-Aviv to Jerusalem (Modiin station). High daytime O3
Max at Mappil, 66 ppb 2nd max at Modiin, 63 ppb
Day : 1200 NOON LST
L
H
H
O3 time series for Aug,1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Local Time (hours)
O3
(pp
b)
Maapil Modiin sta6(Tel Aviv) sta2(Haifa) sta13(Ashdod YA)
Inland sites: day max (auto sources)
Coastal urban: day min (via max titration)
Coastal non-urbanized: Moderate day values (less titration)
Night time min
ObsPeak is at 11 LST. Why?
RAMS Configuration (Weinroth 2004)
3 Grids– 20 km over E-Med for
background synoptic forcing– 5 km over Israel, West Bank,
and Gaza for meso-scale sea/land & mt/valley flows
– 1.25 km for Tel Aviv-Jeru-salem transport-corridor
Domains GPs: 45 x 45, 74 x 54, and 146 x 218 for Domains 1-3
24 vertical levels 1st full grid cell at 125 m Topography GTOPO30 project ECMWF for IC and BC Simulations start at 0000 UTC on
1 August 97 & end 72-h later
900 Km
270 Km
370 Km
180 Km
270 Km
900 Km
MM5 Configuration (Kasakseh 2006)
Version 3.7 3 domains:
– 15, 5, 1.67 km Grid Spacing– 59 x 61, 55 x 76, 58 x 85 Grid
Points 32 σ-levels
– up to 100 mb– first full σ-level at 19 m
ECMWF IC and BC Two-way nesting 5-layer soil model Gayno-Seaman PBL Simulations
– Start: 0000 UTC, 29 July ‘97– End: 0000 UTC, 3 Aug ‘97
Single LINUX CPU (SJSU-Lightning)
Obs vs. MM5: T(t)
July 29 August 1 August 2
July 31 Aug 1 Aug2
Standard MM5 over-predicts summer night-time min-T (Bornstein 2006, this Conf) lower deep soil temp better T-results better Winds better O3
from changing GC/synoptic conditions MM5 needs analysis nudging
obs
MM5:Run1
MM5:Run 4
3 4 .5 3 4 .8 3 5 .1 3 5 .4
L O N G IT U D E (D eg E )
1 0 m o b s sp eed (m /s) a t 0 7 0 0 L S T o r 0 4 0 0 U T C o n 1 A u g
3 1 .5
3 1 .8
3 2 .1
3 2 .4
3 2 .7
3 3
LA
TIT
UD
E (
Deg
N)
3 m /s
5 0 m2 5 0 m7 5 0 m1 0 0 0 m
Med
iterr
anea
n S e
a
Obs, 7 AM, 1 Aug: all down-slope:off-shore (except where inland-direct at inland sites)
• Off coast: South-Westerly (no obs, so ?)
Coastal plain: downslope/offshore from SSE (in obs, but can’t be in coarser ECMWF-results)
Inland sites: inland directed (in obs & ECMWF)
RAMS
Obs, 7 AM, 1 Aug: all down-slope, off-shore (except where inland-direct at inland sites)
3 4 .5 3 4 .8 3 5 .1 3 5 .4
L O N G IT U D E (D eg E )
1 0 m o b s sp eed (m /s) a t 0 7 0 0 L S T o r 0 4 0 0 U T C o n 1 A u g
3 1 .5
3 1 .8
3 2 .1
3 2 .4
3 2 .7
3 3
LA
TIT
UD
E (
Deg
N)
3 m /s
5 0 m2 5 0 m7 5 0 m1 0 0 0 m
Med
iterr
anea
n S e
a
MM5 Domain-2
Off coast: onshore from W (like ECMWF; no obs??)
Coastal plain: downslope/offshore from SSE
(in obs & RAMS, but can’t be in coarse ECMWF-results)
Inland sites: inland directed (in obs & ECMWF)
3 4 .5 3 4 .8 3 5 .1 3 5 .4
L O N G IT U D E (D eg E )
1 0 m o b s sp eed (m /s) a t 1 3 0 0 L S T o r 1 0 0 0 U T C o n 1 A u g
3 1 .5
3 1 .8
3 2 .1
3 2 .4
3 2 .7
3 3
LA
TIT
UD
E (
Deg
N)
3 m /s
5 0 m2 5 0 m7 5 0 m1 0 0 0 m
Obs, 1 PM on 1 Aug: All westerly/onshore flow
• Off coast: Onshore from SW (no obs??)
Coastal plain: upslope/onshore (in obs, but can’t be in coarse ECMWF-results)
Inland sites: inland directed (in obs, MM5, & ECMWF)
South (circle): NW as in MM5 (No Obs)
RAMS
3 4 .5 3 4 .8 3 5 .1 3 5 .4
L O N G IT U D E (D eg E )
1 0 m o b s sp eed (m /s) a t 1 3 0 0 L S T o r 1 0 0 0 U T C o n 1 A u g
3 1 .5
3 1 .8
3 2 .1
3 2 .4
3 2 .7
3 3
LA
TIT
UD
E (
Deg
N)
3 m /s
5 0 m2 5 0 m7 5 0 m1 0 0 0 m
Obs, 1 PM on 1 Aug: All westerly/onshore flow
MM5 Domain-2
Off coast: onshore from W (like ECMWF; no obs)
Coastal plain: upslope/Onshore (in obs & RAMS,
but not in ECMWF-results)
Inland sites: inland directed (in obs & ECMWF)
South (circle): NW (as in RAMS & ECMWF; no Obs?)
Jerusalem
Flight Path
0
0-20
20-40
40-60
60-70
70-80
80-90
90-95
95-105
105-120
O3 ppb
1 Aug, 1500 LST
RAMS/CAMx (left) vs. Airborne Obs (right): from Weinroth (2004) Secondary max (underestimated) from autos:
over Jerusalem (in obs) Primary max from power-plants: in Jordan (no obs)
Irbid,Jordan
Hadera Power Plant
.
SUMMARY OF RESULTS• Observations during a summer Persian-Trough period produced
typical (not episode-level) O3 (as it was somewhat N of area) show
– Meso (down/up slope + sea/land) breezes dominate coastal flows
– Jerusalem O3 max due to coastal auto emissions
– Coastal-urban O3 min due to NOx titration
• Model-results show
– RAMS & MM5 reproduce surface flows
– CAMx reproduced the observed Jerusalem O3 max and produced an even larger previously-unknown max over Jordan due to power plant emissions
FUTURE WORK• Improved MM5 simualtions
– Modified IC soil moisture to improve max-T– Incorporate FDDA analysis nudging
• Compare PBL transport patterns in RAMS and MM5
• Run CAMx with MM5 met-input and compare to results from RAMS/CAMx
• Move to uMM5 and uWRF
THANK YOU
FOR PAYING ATTENTION!
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