Module 17 MM5: Climate Simulation
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Module 17 Module 17 MM5: Climate SimulationMM5: Climate Simulation
William J. Gutowski, Jr.William J. Gutowski, Jr.Iowa State UniversityIowa State University
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Module 17 Module 17 MM5: Climate SimulationMM5: Climate Simulation
Examples of MM5 climate simulation:Examples of MM5 climate simulation: North AmericaNorth America ArcticArctic
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W. J. Gutowski, R. W. Arritt, G. S. Takle, Z. PanW. J. Gutowski, R. W. Arritt, G. S. Takle, Z. PanInternational Institute of Theoretical and Applied International Institute of Theoretical and Applied
PhysicsPhysicsIowa State UniversityIowa State University
(http://www.pircs.iastate.edu)(http://www.pircs.iastate.edu)
Project to Intercompare Regional Project to Intercompare Regional Climate SimulationsClimate Simulations
(PIRCS)(PIRCS)
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PIRCS Participating ModelsPIRCS Participating Models• Danish Met. Inst. (HIRHAM4; J.H. Christensen, O.B. Christensen)Danish Met. Inst. (HIRHAM4; J.H. Christensen, O.B. Christensen)
• Université du Québec à Montréal (D. Caya, S. Biner)Université du Québec à Montréal (D. Caya, S. Biner)
• Scripps Institution of Oceanography (RSM; J. Roads, S. Chen)Scripps Institution of Oceanography (RSM; J. Roads, S. Chen)
• NCEP (RSM; S.-Y. Hong) NCEP (RSM; S.-Y. Hong)
• NASA - Marshall (MM5/BATS; W. Lapenta)NASA - Marshall (MM5/BATS; W. Lapenta)
• CSIRO (DARLAM; J. McGregor, J. Katzfey)CSIRO (DARLAM; J. McGregor, J. Katzfey)
• Colorado State University (ClimRAMS; G. Liston)Colorado State University (ClimRAMS; G. Liston)
• Iowa State University (RegCM2; Z. Pan)Iowa State University (RegCM2; Z. Pan)
• Iowa State University (MM5/LSM; D. Flory)Iowa State University (MM5/LSM; D. Flory)
• Univ. of Maryland / NASA-GSFC (GEOS; M. Fox-Rabinovitz)Univ. of Maryland / NASA-GSFC (GEOS; M. Fox-Rabinovitz)
• SMHI / Rossby Centre (RCA; M. Rummukainen, C. Jones)SMHI / Rossby Centre (RCA; M. Rummukainen, C. Jones)
• NOAA (RUC2; G. Grell)NOAA (RUC2; G. Grell)
• ETH (D. Luethi)ETH (D. Luethi)
• Universidad Complutense Madrid (PROMES; M.Gaertner)Universidad Complutense Madrid (PROMES; M.Gaertner)
• Université Catholique du Louvain (P. Marbaix)Université Catholique du Louvain (P. Marbaix)
• Argnonne National Lab (MM5 V3; J. Taylor, J. Larson)Argnonne National Lab (MM5 V3; J. Taylor, J. Larson)
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PIRCS MissionPIRCS Mission
Evaluate regional climate simulation by Evaluate regional climate simulation by mesoscale models, using a mesoscale models, using a common common frameworkframework
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Summer 1988 - Drought
Adapted from CAC, NWS, NOAA
Jet Stream
Cool &Damp
Weak & Dry Southerly Flow
Heat Wave
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Heat Wave
Summer 1993 - Flood
Adapted from CAC, NWS, NOAA
Jet StreamCool
Warm & Moist Southerly Flow
FLood
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Experiment 1Experiment 1
15 May - 13 July 1988(Drought)
1 June - 30 July 1993 (Flood)
PeriodsPeriods
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Experiment 1Experiment 1
IC: NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, including soil moisture
BC: NCEP/NCAR reanalysis Additional surface temperatures:
Great Lakes observations Gulf of California satellite retrievals
Initial/Boundary ConditionsInitial/Boundary Conditions
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Model Domains
MM5
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500 hPa heights: Root Mean Square Difference from Reanalysis
1988
500 hPa RMSD
0
20
40
60
80
100
136 141 146 151 156 161 166 171 176 181 186 191 196
Julian Day
RegCM2
RAMS
DARLAM
HIRHAM
Scripps RSM
NCEP RSM
MM5-BATS
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500 hPa heights: Root Mean Square Difference from Reanalysis
1993
500 mb RMSD
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1 21 41 61 81 101 121 141 161 181 201 221 241Time period (6 hourly)
DARLAM RSM-Scripps ETHHIRHAM MM5-BATS RSM-NCEPClimRAMS RCA RegCM2RUC UQAM
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ReanalysisReanalysisLLJLLJ
00 UTC00 UTC06 UTC06 UTC12 UTC12 UTC18 UTC18 UTC
12 24 36 48 60 72 84%
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MM5MM5LLJLLJ
00 UTC00 UTC06 UTC06 UTC12 UTC12 UTC18 UTC18 UTC
12 24 36 48 60 72 84%
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Precipitation RegionsPrecipitation Regions
UpperMiss.
SWSE
NW
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Comparison of PIRCS models with Comparison of PIRCS models with gridded precipitation analysisgridded precipitation analysis
Precipitation over Upper Mississippi River Basin
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
136 141 146 151 156 161 166 171 176 181 186 191 196Julian Day
Observed MM5-BATS
RSM-Scripps RSM-NCEP
DARLAM HIRHAM
RegCM2 RAMS
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Precipitation - Southwest Monsoon RegionPrecipitation - Southwest Monsoon Region
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
156 160 164 168 172 176 180 184 188 192
Julian Day (15 May 1988 - 15 July 1988)
Observed RSM - Scripps
RSM - NCEP DARLAM
HIRHAM MM5-BATS
RegCM2 RAMS - ISU
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0
5
10
15
20
136 140 144 148 152 156 160 164 168 172 176 180 184 188 192 196
Julian Day (15 May 1988 - 15 July 1988)
Observed RSM - Scripps
RSM - NCEP DARLAM
HIRHAM MM5-BATS
REGCM2
Precipitation - Pacific NorthwestPrecipitation - Pacific Northwest
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0
5
10
15
20
25
136 140 144 148 152 156 160 164 168 172 176 180 184 188 192
Julian Day
Observed RSM - Scripps
RSM - NCEP DARLAM
HIRHAM MM5-BATS
RegCM2 RAMS - ISU
Precipitation - SoutheastPrecipitation - Southeast
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Comparison of PIRCS models with Comparison of PIRCS models with gridded precipitation analysisgridded precipitation analysis
Accumulated Precipitation
0
100
200
300
400
500DARLAM RSM-ScrippsETH HIRHAMMM5-BATS RSM-NCEPClimRAMS RCARegCM2 RUCUQAM Obs (Higgins)Model Mean VEMAPMM5-ANL
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Precip. BiasPrecip. BiasJune 1988June 1988
[mm/d][mm/d]
CompositeComposite
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 +2 +4 +6 +8 +10 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 +2 +4 +6 +8 +10
MM5/BATSMM5/BATS
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Precip. BiasPrecip. BiasJuly 1993July 1993
[mm/d][mm/d]-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 +2 +4 +6 +8 +10 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 +2 +4 +6 +8 +10
CompositeComposite
MM5/BATSMM5/BATS
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?
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~ 200 mm
MM5/LSMMM5/LSM
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From From Storm Data Storm Data
ReportsReports(9 June 1993)(9 June 1993)
Dawson,Howard,Martin &Dawson,Howard,Martin &Midland Counties Midland Counties (West Texas):(West Texas): Flash FloodsFlash Floods Hail Hail ~ 6” (150 mm) precip.~ 6” (150 mm) precip.
~ 200 mm
MM5/LSMMM5/LSM
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FIFE Field CampaignFIFE Field Campaign
KansasKansas
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-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
OBSERVED
LatentSensibleInc. SW
[W-m
-2 ]
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
NCEP RSM
[W-m
-2 ]
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24
SCRIPPS RSM
[W-m
-2 ]
Hour
REGCM2
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24
MM5-BATS
Hour
CLIMRAMS
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24
ISU RAMS
Hour
HIRHAM DARLAM
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-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
OBSERVED
LatentSensibleInc. SW
[W-m
-2 ]
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
NCEP RSM
[W-m
-2 ]
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24
SCRIPPS RSM
[W-m
-2 ]
Hour
REGCM2
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24
MM5-BATS
Hour
CLIMRAMS
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24
ISU RAMS
Hour
HIRHAM DARLAM
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290
295
300
305
310
315
320
130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200
Daily Maximum Temperature
FIFEECPCRSMM5BTSNCPRSMRAMSGLREGCM2
Day of Year
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280
285
290
295
300
305
310
130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200
Daily Minimum Temperature
FIFEECPCRSMM5BTSNCPRSMRAMSGLREGCM2
Day of Year
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0
50
100
150
200
250
130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200
Latent Heat Flux
FIFE-sdevFIFE+sdevNCEPMM5-BATSScripps
REGCM2HIRHAMDARLAMRAMSGL(SM)
Day of Year
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-50
0
50
100
150
200
130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200
Sensible Heat Flux
FIFE-sdev
FIFE+sdev
NCEP
MM5-BATS
SCRIPPS
REGCM2
HIRHAM
DARLAM
Day of Year
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0
100
200
300
400
500
130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200
Incident Shortwave Radiation
FIFE-sdevFIFE+sdevNCEPMM5-BATS
SCRIPPSREGCM2HIRHAMDARLAM
Day of Year
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Acknowledgments - PIRCSAcknowledgments - PIRCS
• Primary Funding: Primary Funding:
Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI)Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI)• Guidance/Support: Guidance/Support:
Andrew Staniforth, Eugenia Kalnay, Andrew Staniforth, Eugenia Kalnay,
Filippo Giorgi, Roger Pielke, AMIP groupFilippo Giorgi, Roger Pielke, AMIP group• Special Thanks: Special Thanks:
Participating ModelersParticipating Modelers
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Module 17 Module 17 MM5: Climate SimulationMM5: Climate Simulation
BREAKBREAK